That argument is pure cope and your response misses the fundamental point entirely.
You're focusing on the technical failure ("bad opsec," "custody failure") to ignore the political failure that game theory can't fix. The uneven playing field. The point isn't that criminals had weak security....the point is that the government has the power to spend massive resources to track, prosecute, and ultimately seize $14 billion in an asset designed to be unconfiscatable. This act of force fundamentally changes the game by proving the state doesn't need to abide by market rules or "vested interest" logic, it can use its legal and physical might to contain or remove any asset that threatens its control, showing that the promise of hard money is constantly vulnerable to a powerful, centralized actor.
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Your argument is that governments have guns therefore cryptography is pointless. That’s not a critique of Bitcoin, that’s just acknowledging state power exists.
Without Bitcoin, they don’t need to find you. They devalue your savings through inflation, freeze your account remotely, or debank you with a phone call. With Bitcoin, they have to physically come get your keys. That’s forcing them to use their most expensive, least scalable tool. They can’t remotely seize Bitcoin from millions of people. They need warrants, arrests, and physical access per person.
The game theory still holds. They can’t print Bitcoin. They can’t freeze your keys remotely. They have to physically find you and compel you. That’s the most expensive form of power projection, and it doesn’t scale. That’s the whole point.
Your argument boils down to.....Bitcoin is successful because it forces the state to use a less scalable, more expensive tool (physical seizure) than fiat (remote freezing/inflation).
What the government can't control, it must contain.
But you are ignoring how the state achieves control without physically kicking in doors!
Chokepoint Control (Containment): The government doesn't need to seize Bitcoin from millions of individuals. They need to control the on/off ramps—the regulated exchanges, the banks, the custodians. The moment you try to convert your Bitcoin into dollars, property, or goods in the regulated economy, you expose yourself to their power. That choke point is scalable, and it achieves their containment goal.
The Incentive Trap: You praise Bitcoin for forcing them to use the most expensive form of power projection (physical arrest/seizure). But this only applies to people who already have massive stacks that warrant that expensive effort. For the average person, the government simply raises the cost and complexity of using Bitcoin until it's impractical, forcing them back into fiat for most transactions.
The True Game Theory: The uneven playing field doesn't end just because the tool is slower. The state's move is to legislate Bitcoin out of utility for the masses—either through capital gains complexity, KYC/AML enforcement on all major interaction points, or outright banning its use as money. Why go through the expensive process of physical seizure when you can simply make the asset functionally useless within the system?
The government doesn't need to win the technical fight for every wallet; it just needs to win the regulatory and enforcement fight at the perimeter to maintain its monopoly on power and money.