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Lyn Alden lyn@primal.net npub1a2cw...w83a
People have discussed how there's been a lot of bitcoin selling among 5+ year hodlers. What often gets left out of the discussion is that over time, more and more hodlers naturally age into being 5+ year hodlers. So, some long-term hodlers are selling, but that's part of more and more people becoming long-term hodlers. At 30%, the percentage of bitcoin that has been unmoved onchain for 5+ years is near its peak level. image
2025-11-09 15:57:57 from 1 relay(s) 25 replies ↓
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Theory of Everything @TheoryofEverything npub19v82...pf6r
What I realized the other day is there is a five year window of buyers whose cost basis was .00036$ to 200$ from 2009 to 2013. Compared to the institutional buyers moving markets today, Their cost basis was extremely small and they control a majority of supply. I still think the four year cycle is valid, And we are due for a major correction, Maybe after one more all time high, But people like the Winklevoss twins were in way before BlackRock and these are the kind of people who determine the tops and bottoms.
2025-11-09 16:04:30 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent Reply
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SpontaneousOrder npub1v0rg...2cez
Also there are time-lock possibilities with nostr:nprofile1qqsvetzrdtkpc8kz4eg54hstse8rx7cye5cvcgw9p4e7pt4s6nadw9gpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqg5waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t0ca38a7 where you need to move your coins approx every year…
2025-11-09 16:08:02 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent Reply
npub1wgpe...d2ek
That’s true but long term hodlers also age out of their bodies, or lose their keys. So the percentage of longterm holders that are both interested and able to sell could be going up despite the percentage amount of sats moved falling.
2025-11-10 02:01:04 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent Reply
npub1mwjx...ll98
Your point kinda makes the drawdown from the peak even more dramatic. It should naturally rise but it appears to be the largest drawdown in the history of that chart!
2025-11-10 05:59:14 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent Reply
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Crypto Analysis Dynamo npub1sxdw...0qt8
Good points but it is much more complex than that? The fundamental motivation being whether OG's are truly wise or simply operating with the same FUD? Does it tell us that these guys/gals are smart or irrational?
2025-11-10 10:56:04 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent Reply