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I am not sure if that math is still good. This site can give you a better idea:

Bloom filter calculator

Calculate the optimal size for your bloom filter, see how many items a given filter can hold, or just admire the curvy graphs. Also borrow my MIT ...

It's all about your probability

I think that math was wrong. The 10,000,000 keys was not the number of keys inside the filter (which for NIP-76 would be 2-3 keys on average). But relays would have to check that filter against 10,000,000 + keys that can connect to them. The false positives claim was based on testing 10,000,000 keys against a simple filter like that.