I think that math was wrong. The 10,000,000 keys was not the number of keys inside the filter (which for NIP-76 would be 2-3 keys on average). But relays would have to check that filter against 10,000,000 + keys that can connect to them. The false positives claim was based on testing 10,000,000 keys against a simple filter like that.

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Yeah, I suppose 100 bits would be well past all 1’s if we tried to pack in 10^7 pubkeys. If I’m understanding correctly how this works.
So the question we ask: given a certain set of parameters, if we throw X randomly selected pubkeys at it, what are the odds of 1 or more false positives? And for 10 million it’s still pretty tiny.
So I think I misunderstood what you meant by “capable of handling up to” a million keys. It means it would successfully defend against being attacked by one million pubkeys trying to gain access.