What nobody seems to bring up is the complete lack of a proof of concept attack on something easier to Crack. An 8bit DSA analogon cracked by a 48 logical Qbits machine could be a useful canary. PoW!
All the QC arguments I have heard over the years are fear based with minimal backup, because spooky quantum.
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I'm not technical enough to know, but I thought, in theory, 'they' already know how to break 128-bit or 256-bit or whatever encryption if they just had enough qubits. So, to me, when the claim revolves around a certain number of qubits - like 100 or whatever, shouldn't they already be able to demonstrate supremacy in the realm say 8-bit? or even 16-bit encryption? (or maybe they do already claim this supremacy? I don't know; but would like to know).
Maybe I'm wrong; but, all the hype around inevitably being able to break encryption once they are able to build enough qubits seems to be ignoring the important fact that what they are calling a 'qubit' isn't even in itself what they would eventually need - never mind how many of these proto-qubits they manage to be able string together.
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48 logical qubits don’t exist yet - as pointed out in the video.
My main point: We need a canary - an intentionally weak, 8-bit ECDSA - something that small (available) quantum computers can actually crack. Otherwise, quantum cryptographers will keep feeding us suckers the FUD we deserve. Give them a real target or shut them down. I've seen this grift from the inside for years.