So, last week Strategy sold MSTR at an average price of ~$121/share and bought BTC at an average price of ~$63K. With BTC that low, IMO, this will almost certainly end up being a good move. Unfortunately, just last month, at their Q1 earnings call, they revealed the slide below to explain when selling shares to buy BTC would be accretive (and vice versa). Based on the average prices above, prior to these moves, their BTC Reserves sat at ~$53B, and their ADSO Market Cap sat at only ~$46B - well below the "BPS Accretive Breakeven" point as indicated by their own slide. As per usual, Saylor's biggest PR problem (and likely rating agency problem, btw) isn't that he's selling equities to buy bitcoin... it's that he keeps saying one thing while doing another.

Well, this is new: @Cash App raised its fee for paying from cash balance to ln BTC from 0% to 0.9%. Obviously, 0% forever was never going to be sustainable. 0.9% is still very reasonable for $ to BTC conversion, though. (I'm assuming the recent introduction of USDC transactions had something to do with forcing this change at this time)

FWIW, my personal model for projecting BTC estimated bottom is ~$62.5K. Obviously, yesterday's ~$61K broke my model... but just barely. I'm going to chalk it up to a failure in precision rather than in accuracy, and am declaring the bottom is now in. Much lower, though, and I'll have to admit to myself that my model is junk (which TBH wouldn't really surprise me 😉) *BTW, the reason February's ~60K hadn't already broke my model was at that time the estimated bottom was only ~55K.

FTX was a fraud because they were opaquely using customers' assets to fund investments - which only came to light because those investments turned out to be bad investments. Strategy's #STRC customers don't have to worry about this because technically, STRC isn't directly backed by any assets. That is, Strategy *could* decide to use all of its Bitcoin holdings to fund bad investments (that may or may not be dependent on BTC performance), and their STRC customers would just be SOL - regardless of BTC price. In short, what distinguishes STRC from a Ponzi is transparency; but, make no mistake, it's definitely, as @Lyn Alden put it, "Ponzi adjacent".

Nostr is amazing freedom technology! Also, if you think 200 replies a day would feel to restrictive, go touch some grass. Also, if you make 50 original posts in 1 day, you're getting unfollowed. 😉 View quoted note →

"Noobs should be able to send/receive Bitcoin secured only by ther nsec" "Noobs shouldn't have to worry about securing their nsec to use Nostr" This doesn't end well for noobs... and therefore, nor does it for the adoption of Nostr.