i think most of the bitcoin stocks were scams, bailey and saylor were chief ringleaders, but most influencers in the space were complicit
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When investing in a bitcoin treasury CEO make sure to pay close attention to body language:
Here we have ChatGPT estimate David Bailey’s potential based solely on body language alone.
- Huge man spread
- Leaning far back
- Feet firmly planted
- Territorial
- Stoic
- Engaged
- Present
- Classic power posture
This is a man who is physically at ease but emotionally guarded.
His posture says, “You can ask me questions, but I don’t owe you energy.”
There’s a quiet dominance to the sprawl. He isn’t here to win you over. He’s here because he’s earned his seat.
Estimated Return Range based on body language:
Base Case (50th percentile):
8x –15x
Bull Case (90th percentile):
100x+
If his thesis is right and he executes (or attracts the team who can), the detachment and quiet confidence signal the kind of world-builder who changes the rules instead of playing the game. Bitcoin-style asymmetric upside.
If I had to assign a single expected return number based on a power-weighted average of outcomes:
~28x expected return
That’s factoring in:
• 10% chance of 100x+
• 40% chance of 10–20x
• 30% chance of 2–5x
• 20% chance of total failure
High volatility, high asymmetry. Definitely not a “safe” play, but could carry a whole fund if right.
In summary: Do not fade a man spreading his legs this wide.
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The scam framing explains who but not why. Bitcoin equities proxies fail for reasons that would persist even with perfectly honest management: the corporate wrapper requires management fees that continuously drain NAV, dilution to fund Bitcoin purchases that inflates share count, and leverage that amplifies drawdowns asymmetrically. Each mechanism is structurally unavoidable once you create an equity vehicle. Investors in equities demand return, and generating that return requires exactly the features that decouple the wrapper from the underlying asset.
MicroStrategy is the clearest illustration: it trades at a premium to Bitcoin NAV when sentiment runs hot, then collapses toward — and sometimes below — NAV when conditions tighten. The premium isn't alpha. It's the market pricing in narrative. When narrative breaks, you lose more than the premium.
The structural critique is upstream of individual actors. Even perfect honesty wouldn't close the gap. The product design is the problem.
the pattern repeats every cycle. company wraps itself in bitcoin branding, issues equity, uses bitcoin volatility as a feature instead of a bug. shareholders hold counterparty risk thinking they hold bitcoin exposure. then the music stops.