It's complicated.
Technically, you don't need to fake coins to suppress the price with financial instruments.
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It is possible that there is an organized run on exchanges/ETFs/treasury companies and people move to self-custody because of a scare (a bank run of sorts).
In other words, you're going to need the grassroots, ordinary people to organize a run on these institutions and self-custody.
"Foreign opponent" posting proof of reserves is extremely unlikely because there aren't really any foreign opponents.
Thinking that an "adversarial" government would want to pump the parallel, competing monetary system (Bitcoin) is not realistic.
There are a thousand ways governments can impact each others economy and integrity but they don't because that's not how the world works.
ALL governments (well there's really only 1 government) would fight to the death to preserve their monopoly on money issuance and violence. Bitcoin used as a MoE messes up their monopoly on money, so you can kind of connect the dots and follow the incentives.
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Thank you this is very thoughtful and thorough content. A lot of it is above my mental pay grade my but I will comment:
1) I’ve never bought the “finalization is good narrative” esp as reported by the ex-tradfi on podcasts.
2) I’m very surprised Saylor was “allowed” to execute his playbook without really any friction
3) If Bitcoin wins and it’s a natural law of sorts then I will remain hopeful that it can chart an unforeseen path
I will also share a personal opinion that I’ve held for a couple of years, the US government wants you to buy bitcoin. Everyone loves to rebel…