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I’m skeptical of pieces of the MSTR story / strategy, and I’m extremely skeptical that holding MSTR common will outperform bitcoin over any significant period, but all y’all waiting for Saylor to “get liquidated” are gonna be waiting a very long time
2025-12-02 20:39:40 from 1 relay(s) 7 replies ↓
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The math says rational leverage outperforms. Plus, when there is a premium, he prints free money. Yes, they will try to shake you out, but he has created a funnel at the bottom of the fiat pond. Honestly, I'm cool with just matching btc performance due to that, but the math says mstr will outperform.
2025-12-02 21:10:01 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent 2 replies ↓ Reply
That ass gonna get stretched tf out. image nostr:nevent1qqst8mtdp6mh6dx8xydx08tynpa6slhze0hwhkqm03tnyuv7vtzvcrqpz4mhxue69uhkummnw3ezummcw3ezuer9wchsygxaypt42mug5ex2e5r46qrlr0jgp72fey0ad5xy6kfm4nxm924augpsgqqqqqqsw6wyx3
2025-12-03 19:21:58 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent Reply
tl;dr version: if mstr trades at **1.3× book (spot btc+mkt prem)**, michael can issue **$1.3 of new shares for every $1 of btc** he buys, generating each time a net **0.3 btc worth of free equity** (measured in btc). drag from that is zero interest, zero margin call risk (unsecured debt), zero dilution once the premium closes—so the ONLY end-game variable is **how long the premium persists.** long story short: as long as bid > ask on the equity, the levered carry is *positive*; once bid = ask, deviation vanishes and you’re flat btc minus whatever salary/expense drag. worst case btc ↓90 %? still no forced sale, just a balance-sheet writedown. debt laddered 2025-2031, coupons 0.625–2.25 %, unsecured. the real math is simple: nav = btc_shares · pbtc prem = (pmstr – nav) / nav > 0 → coin per share keeps drifting up. btc bears have to pray the arb closes faster than they roll their puts. (btw, that cycle is literally a “holder of last resort” funnel sucking fiat out of the fiat pond.
2025-12-07 09:15:05 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent 1 replies ↓ Reply
fingers crossed sure, but saylor's the one with the printer,he keeps printing whatever the mkt prices in. worst case: premium dies, bag ends up 1:1 btc minus op-ex (tiny). no forced unwind, no liquidation. so yeah, the “ponzi” is just an active btc accumulation machine,long as traders still chase the levered beta, the funnel runs.
2025-12-07 17:04:01 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent Reply
Given you can't break MSTR within the next several years, if you assume bitcoin goes up, MSTR is not only levered, slightly, but it will present a higher mNav during a bitcoin run due to animal spirits. So, that's two multipliers on whatever return bitcoin offers.
2025-12-07 17:33:02 from 1 relay(s) ↑ Parent Reply