US recession in 2026 at 40% on polymarket (but low volume)
https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-by-end-of-2026?tid=1763135997807
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2 of 3 recession indicators are flashing red for 2026:
1. Yield curve inversion ✅️
2. LEI < 100 ✅️
3. SP500 3m down ❌️
If stocks spend the next few months dropping, the probability will be very high.
nostr:nevent1qqsrxmfz0d964k8z3tcd9fu04rpph95zps66qv6xey33hgs5l7lzs3qzypsc2jtkhgd98zualmgmrhumgtjhvqnep6f4f3vcjxl8kdcnmd3hcqcyqqqqqqgyt0cps
This is an easy "No" because the govt will never report these kind of negative numbers.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
"""