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“To understand the gap, consider a recent milestone estimate by Google’s Quantum AI team (Craig Gidney, 2025). Factoring a 2048-bit RSA key (a standard encryption strength) is projected to require on the order of 1,399 logical qubits (error-corrected qubits), which corresponds to roughly 1 million physical qubits when using the leading quantum error correction code (the surface code at about distance 25). Such a machine would need to perform around 6.5 billion nontrivial gate operations (Toffoli/T gates) over a runtime of about 5 days continuous operation, with each physical gate error kept below ~0.1%. These numbers – 5 days of sustained, error-corrected computation on a million-qubit device – are staggering compared to today’s quantum computers (which have at most a few hundred qubits running for seconds). Not surprisingly, no current quantum system meets these requirements. Achieving a CRQC will demand major advances in multiple dimensions of quantum technology.”

there was a guy claiming he knew everything about quantum and predicting the apocalypse yesterday can't find him now

I might have bought a Mayan calendar from him.

This is awesome, thanks