China Morning Missive It is beginning to look as though there’s already been a bit of a breakdown after last week’s bilateral talks in Madrid. It all centers on soybeans, and I’ve been surprised up to this point that China has not announced any purchase from American farmers. This is always the go-to tactic when it comes to a specific Chinese deliverable anytime Beijing seeks to “make nice” with Washington. Well, not only are the Midwest farmers now scrambling, but China also announced yesterday that it would be purchasing soybeans from Argentina. Granted, it’s only around a $1bn order, but the message is clear at least in how I’m reading these particular tea leaves. Not as well that this announcement was made just as the United States was preparing to provide the Milei government a $20bn in financial support. There’s no question in my mind that the Chinese made a verbal agreement to restart purchases of soybeans during last week’s Madrid round of talks. It would have been a conditionally made agreement though. There is a sort of dance going on if you will. Step one, the parties agree to a TikTok deal. Step two, the Americans then formally/publicly deliver on whatever key issue China demanded but that had only been privately agreed to in the talks. Step three, the Chinese reciprocate and begin buying American soybeans. It is now clear that there has been a breakdown. You can see this from the fact that the purchase of Argentina soybeans is small compared to the typical $10bn to $15bn worth of American soybeans around this time of year. It’s meant as a signal to Washington that there are other markets where China can source its raw material needs. Not yet clear to me how this will all play out, but the entirety of all this sparing between China and the United States is far from over. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-buyers-book-least-10-argentine-soybean-cargoes-sources-say-2025-09-23/