If the 4 year cycle remains in tact, then ~$40-45k will be the bottom about a year from now.
#Bitcoin
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I think people are going to get rekt selling and expecting this
I sure as hell wouldn't recommend it. Reset is the wrong time to get cute. Defense only.
Defense wins championships.
Even without a blow off top?
Exactly
It is and yes that’s the right ballpark
Interesting you suggest a low so below the last ATH. I would have thought around 60 if that’s the case. 40 would be a phenomenal stack in ‘26
The 4 year cycle data hasn't held up since the last halving. Something different is happening.
40k Bitcoin in 2026?
JFC. What happened to us.
Based on what?
This "cycle" isn't tracking #bitcoin 's historical activity. Something different is happening.
How has it deviated?
I agree. It’s bonkers
I agree with that, but doesnt mean the market won't roll with a disjoint 4 year cycle.
😂
The markets are haywire. I am not looking to them to figure out what happens next. If the money printing starts in earnest, liquidity is going to be more influential than habit.
An 80% drawdown would be lower than 40. Closer to 25k.
Not happening. Imo, i could see a flash dip to 40 in a complete bizarre moment. It’ll be a V moment. Get ready if so
sats are on sale
Already
Institutions are sucking out the premium with futures, options and stonks. There is a lot of paper bitcoin reducing real demand. The cycle tracks almost identical to 2021 with less amplitude. That’s why we barely got 100% from previous peak unfortunately that doesn’t stop us from getting a bear market. There is a lot of misconception on the idea of institutional buying is “long only”.
Like the March 2020 dip. We couldn't react fast enough. This time around, I have no cash.
I’d be surprised yet ecstatic by a 40k low though
I wouldn’t be ecstatic because I’d have to sell spot and buy calls. Spot wouldn’t be enough if we were that low.
No idea what you’re talking about, i just stack sats
I don’t really like price predictions in either direction because they are mostly misleading and misguided. But I think 38-50K range is a reasonable expectation 60-70% drawdown based on how sharply we have already sold off since peak. Seems entirely possible by the end of the bear.
Oh yeah bitcoin is definitely going to 40k.
~$80k is a significant support zone. Selling near that would likely be a mistake.
If ~$80k can't hold, the next support is ~$60k.
I lean more towards your second assertion. Which supports the idea that you can't look at past "cycles" to say what will or should happen now.
I don't think there has been enough time to say there are patterns. The conditions are constantly changing and the reasons for drawdowns are always different. Cycles have been an influencer talking point.
yes they are