Going into the future, Bitcoin (and any PoW coin) has roughly 6 scenarios that will happen if price stops climbing at a similar rate to the past (I think its a safe bet to say it wont. Name one thing in history that has. Even if it unrealistically swallows 100% value in the world there is still a limit):
1) Unending block rewards (never going to happen 21M is core)
2) Reoccuring blocksize increases + increasing transaction count (Growing fees spread across growing transactions - probably wont happen either, but more probable than #1)
3) Second layers that actually consistently pay miners to secure the chain unlike Lightning (i.e. Drivechains)
4) Nothing changes "scenario A". Thriving fee market. Tiny set of wealthy users are able and willing to pay massive fees. The full potential of Bitcoin is not available to most. Vast majority of plebs will rarely, if ever, touch the base layer. Custodial and less sovereign layers are the norm more than they are even now. No realistic unilateral exit that makes economic sense means the entire security model of layers like lightning are pointless if they can't be enforced on chain.
5) Nothing changes "scenario B". Not enough users are willing to use Bitcoin or pay enough fees for miners to offset dwindling block rewards and secure the blockchain. Miners start dropping out to a new, much lower, equilibrium. (increasingly vulnerable to 51% attack)
6) Mostly altruistic miners (lol. lmao.)
If Bitcoins price doesn't increase at a similar rate to the past, which do you think is most likely? Which do you prefer? What scenario did I miss? You tell me.
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Replies (4)
First of all you better not worry about Bitcoin but go figure out the scenarios related to your monero shitcoin.
Second of all, we Bitcoiners will make sure Bitcoin prospers the way it has been for 16 years.
Third, Satoshi Nakamoto has already thought out and implemented the great idea and design, like for example the difficulty adjustment.
Fourth, in the past we have had "bear" markets with the price dropping. What happened? Bitcoin, doesn't care, tick tock, next block, as a result Bitcoin has been in continues bull market since inception.
Gold did it for thousands of years with a small bit of inflation
You don't need to introduce inflation, but you have to do something if you want to avoid the security problem when block rewards run out.
Relying on price to go up forever, and at the same rate as the past, to secure Bitcoin is very risky to say the least
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You will start having problems way before it runs out. Probably in the next few halvings.
Even if transction count and fees go up you will still end up in #4
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#4