This is a bleak snapshot, but I see a lot of opportunity for market correction. There are tens of millions of acres of ethanol corn that can (should) shift to food crops. That will happen anyway, as electrification of the US vehicle fleet accelerates- there isn’t going to be a magic home for all that ethanol. The water problem is tougher- there is a bunch of moldy value tied up in irrigated land. The real problem in the water space is that for every significant increase in water use efficiency, there is not a corresponding decrease in water use- the savings get moved over to new acres, and the aquifer keeps getting sucked dry 10-200x faster than recharge rate. The farm lobby groups are not thinking long term, and haven’t for decades. The grower groups think (at most) in 5 year farm bill cycles. For all the talk about passing the family farm on to the next generation, there is little that makes me believe this generational bridge is thinking broadly about the reality of it.