China Morning Missive Well, there is certainly a great deal of positivity (again) from the latest round of bilateral talks between China and the United States. From what is being made public, the two sides have reached a “framework” of a deal with Trump and Xi signing off when they meet on Thursday this week. As Brad Pitt said in the move Seven though, “What’s in the box? WHAT’S IN THE BOX?” What concessions did the American side make? Up to this point what we know is the following. The TikTok deal is set to “close” on Thursday. China is preparing a “substantial” purchase of soybeans. Rare earth controls are to be postponed by a year. These are just the three larger key issues that we know of and are said to have been concluded. If China had all the leverage (which it did) and China has agreed to basically all terms, what has the American side agreed to? Thus far, Bessent is playing the game that China made concessions and with that America won’t be moving forward on the additional 100% tariffs which Trump had threatened. Nonsense. That’s Bessent providing cover to the media so that the actual details of what real concessions were made don’t need to be raised publicly. The obvious candidate would be China’s access to key technology. While I suspect that technology will be part of the American deliverable, the focus needs to remain on Taiwan. It’s always been Taiwan. I’ll also be paying close attention to the Typhoon missile systems in the Phillipines and the second installation that was placed just last month in Japan. I’m also expecting the two parties to publicly make an agreement over the future of nuclear nonproliferation. Just keep in mind that the Chinese don’t trust any verbal agreement with an American President (ironic tough that may be). All of what’s been agreed to, and I mean the real issues and not TikTok, will have had the Chinese press for a Fourth Communique. That takes time. My ongoing thesis is for Trump to travel to China in early 2026 and for Xi to travel to the States in early 2027. It will be on that US trip when the parties would sign a new communique laying out an agreement over how best to divvy up the Asia-Pac region.

US Treasury chief Bessent says ‘substantial’ trade framework with China reached — TradingView News