Bitcoin - Next Stop USD 128k to $130k #bitcoin #money #economy The wheels are turning after the latest Executive Order in the US which opens 401k’s to digital assets through ETFs and the like. We seem to have an early July 25 pattern forming that saw a USD 16k jump in the BTC price. Accordingly, this could lead to USD 128k - 130k top and then a pull bak to USD 120k as the price consolidates again. Whereas I am sure we all hope for peace in Ukraine/Russia and the Middle East, I do not hold much star on the Trump/Putin meeting in Alaska. This may mark a turning point in the BTC climb as the world re-assesses risk and may see a move back to traditional assets such as #gold

Australia’s Inflation about to soar #inflation #costofliving #costofliving #economy #money #gold #bitcoin Well it only took a month after the. May 25 Australian Federal Government elections and the M3 Money Supply has jumped from 5.96% YoY to 6.77% YoY (as at the end of June 25). Expect a bigger jump next month. The growth in money supply directly affects prices in an inflationary manner - that’s why most western governments print money like crazy to pump a slowing economy. In doing so governments debase your money. Based on Australian M3 growth your AUD one dollar will only buy AUD 93 cents of goods compared to a year ago. By 2030 at this rate it will be AUD 72 cents. The growth in M3 and debasement of your money really only affects the first recipients of the new money. Subsequent recipients effectively receive less value as the first recipients have caused demand-driven price increases - known as the Cantillon Effect. If the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduces interest rates in August 25 - expect the flow on effect to be significant encouraging more borrowing and spending driving up prices. Michelle Bullock, as the face of the RBA has been steadfast in moving slowly (very good), but I believe external pressures will result in a rate reduction in August. How much? Unless they step away from 25 basis point moves my bets are marginally on a 50 point reduction. Gold continues to show the underlying real debasement of 38.8% pa movement. So if you think your cost of living in some areas has gone up 20+ or 30+ percent then you are probably correct.

Bitcoin Recovers - slowly #bitcoin #money Bitcoin, after gradually declining to sub USD112k is gradually climbing back, indicating, on 6 Aug 25, its first higher low and higher top since early July 25 (not yet charted). The top remains marginal, only being about USD 20 above that achieved on 4 Aug 25. Given the pricing scale (100k ranges) comparatively for a USD 1 stock this would be seen as a double top. Accordingly, if the high for 7 Aug 25 does not exceed the 6 Aug 25 top we could see a pull back to USD 109.7k in the next few days. Keep your powder dry … if you got in with the USD 111k - 112k opportunity, great, if not you may want to wait or consider only a small investment at the current price level.

Another Sad day for Medicine in Oz!! #doctor #health #ahpra #ahpra #vcat #vcat #medicine The Medical Board suspended Dr Jereth Kok back in August 2019 after complaints about social media posts concerning LGBQTI+ and similar matters that did not meet with his Christian views and breached the Code of Ethics on a number of matters. Admittedly VCAT only looked at the complaints and compared them to the law, as written. In doing so, once again, regulatory authorities have chased possibly another good practitioner away from providing medical care to Australians. Dr Kok has stated that he does not refuse to provide his services to anyone (my choice of words). Government and regulators continue to step beyond the bounds of what is medicine and apply standards that are outside their area of expertise and authority (any authority assumed is one they have bestowed upon themselves). What needs to be done is to change the regulations and let our good and really good medical practitioners to work with patients and agree on a way forward that best meets their medical needs - even if it is outside accepted norms. If we don’t we will literally stay in the age of “blood letting” in Australia. We have lost, what is probably a good doctor, putting him in the c order for six years and maybe many more. I expect like Dr Charlie Teo he will look elsewhere and Australia will be worse off. Is your government really looking after you or running a “protection racket” for the select few?

Bitcoin Resilient with big sell!!! #bitcoin #money #crypto-currency Bitcoin shows resilience to Galaxy Digital sale of approximately 9 months mining production of BTC in a few days. Prices dropped by about 4% as the market consumed the released BTC. This market action and results indicates a maturing product, which will require a lot of selling pressure to bring the price down significantly in the future. Admittedly, the total sale was only about 0.065% of world BTC supply BUT that represents the equivalent of 16.72 trillion of the World’s estimated money supply expressed in USD (or about 50% of the US Government debt).

Scam Crypto Coindrop #crypto #scam #xrp #xrp #ripple #ledger #coindrop I’m interested in community feedback on the following. I have noticed recently that some of my wallets are receiving very small coin drops of crypto (FREE - Yeah!!); however, the wallet I am using (Ledger - soon to be decommissioned) is also charging a fee greater than the coin drop amount. So the net result is my balance decreases marginally each time - we are talking less than $0.01 - but it annoying. My questions are: 1. Can it be stopped - as the address is on the blockchain - zeroing the wallet and starting another seems possible but I suspect it is like trying to avoid SPAM e-mail by changing e-mail addresses. 2. Is there another method where a wallet can reject certain incoming transactions. The crypto concerned is XRP (Ripple). BTW I am giving up on Ledger after many years due to its closed source code and more modern alternatives where I do not need a magnifying glass to read the small screen (Yes. I know there is Ledger Flex - more like a phone).

Apologies … #bitcoin #moneysupply My apologies for the image in my last post - rather blurred. New one attached.

Bitcoin update - as I see it #bitcoin #moneysupply Just short note today … keep your powder dry if you are looking to enter the BTC market or stack more. A quick analysis of the recent two bumps in BTC indicates that the first was probably triggered by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to around 40% (BTC pricing also being at sub USD 100k). The second times well with the End of Financial Year for many countries (30 June), where investor exit losing positions to realise tax losses. At that point the Global Net Liquidity jumped some USD 300 trillion within 48hrs. Starting on 1 July that money had to find a new home - Bitcoin was one place plus other more traditional investments. The Global Net Liquidity has now gone (plus some). What’s the bottom line … IMHO I expect the BTC price to slowly pull back. Expecting a revisit to USD 115k and (maybe hoping) for closer to USD 110k.

Australia Inflates!! #inflation #moneysupply #moneysupply #economy #australia #gold #bitcoin The Australian May 25 M3 growth is in, showing almost 6% growth in 12 months or AUD 180bn. The annoying thing is that the calculation and release of the M3 data always lags by about 6 weeks. Is the figure important? Yes. It is an indicator of “new fiat money” in the economy. An increase in fiat money is “inflation” not the concocted CPI (Consumer Price Index). At a basic level your AUD purchasing power has dropped by 6% in 12 months. Growth in incomes over the same time has pushed many into new tax brackets meaning there is even less net income available. The concerning factor is the reporting month was when Australia resoundingly returned a Labor Government, preceded by a deficit Budget for FY 25/26 and a number of years following. The budgetary impact has not even flowed through into the economy but M3 is showing an uptick. Many may not agree, but the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) recent decision to hold interest rates was sensible and appropriate - despite “manipulated” figures that supported an argument for interest rate reductions. The Government can increase money supply BUT so can others. - Banks can increase lending - Investment in derivative products (1% on the table for a 100% stake) are two examples. Using #gold as a base currency indicates around 40% inflation in the last year. So if you had AUD 100 in the bank a year ago you may now show a balance of AUD 103 after taxes and charges. Whereas AUD 100 of physical #gold is going to show AUD 140 or thereabouts. If you held BTC ( #bitcoin ) for about a year or less you should be showing a 60% increase. What are the responsible options - focus on investing as much as you can into #gold or #bitcoin and protect your family’s future. Alternatively, spend like crazy and let the #government look after you and any problems. I know which path I will take.

Oops! - I should have bought. #bitcoin #money Well for now the market for BTC seems to have moved on and up. Any regrets about not buying at USD 100k to 105k should be put aside. This moment reminds me of Sonny in the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel who says “Everything will be all right in the end... if it's not all right then it's not yet the end.” So if you think it is not alright that you did not buy then its not the end of this rally. Coming back to earth IMHO I expect BTC to fall back to the USD 115k - 116k range in the next few days, which may be a chance to rectify missed buying opportunities. The past four pumps since April 25 have shown that generally there is a pull back of up to 40% of the previous increase. The market then either stabilises or chooses to move higher. The recent top of USD 123k plus change, if taken as the top for now, indicates the future buying price. I do note that this recent increase in the BTC price in USD terms is higher than in the past and possibly related to flow on effects of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill which is inflationary and will flow through to multiple asset classes. Accordingly, any pull back may be larger than in the past. Personally, I will be shooting at USD 110k for orders in the market but will be ready to move on USD 115k range if the pull-back reverses.

Gold failing on several fronts! #gold #forex #money #economy #inflation My last post on 28 Jun 25 indicated that a return to higher prices was likely to be indicated at USD 3,415, with USD 3,375 being a critical point. Well I was out 1 buck and change as #gold turned down around USD 3,376. Although the pull back is no real concern for long term holders it may be for those seeking to make a quick profit. I now see two factors in play at the US level being the continued decline of the USD against other currencies and the recent “Big Beautiful Bill” that will throw more money at the stock market (and away from other investments). This “fix” will be relatively short-lived in the overall scheme of things but will push down the USD #gold price. Australians face a double edged sword with a currency strengthening against the USD (although technically weakening overall) plus the recent Reserve Bank decision to hold interest rates, making the AUD slightly more attractive to others pushing up its comparative value to the USD. Price predictions? Sorry nothing to offer USD wise, except lower highs and lower lows. Aussies may even get the opportunity to buy at spot plus commissions below AUD 5,000. See latest Gold Daily Gann Swing below.

Gold Pullback - Too Fast, Too Hard #gold #forex #money #economy #inflation #devaluation As indicated in my 24 Jun post #gold pulled back to the USD 3,250 level. In Australia this was exacerbated by the increasing strength of the AUD against USD seeing #gold spot run slightly under AUD 5,000. Sidenote … the AUD, which in my opinion is also weakening, increasing against the USD, suggest that the present US Administration is managing to weaken the USD against other currencies. I believe this was, and remains, the intention of the new administration. An interesting scenario of slowly devaluing a currency (USD) while it is also being debased within the country. Turning back to #gold , although offering a buying opportunity the pullback was too hard and too fast so I expect a corrective upwards swing to appear within a few days. Good buying now - confirmation of a return to upward movement is likely at USD 3,415 with initial positive signs after USD 3,375.

EOFY (30 Jun) for a lot of countries - happy new financial year. Busy time for many in the financial industry. #eofy

Bitcoin shows positive UPWARD signs! #bitcoin #gold #money #equities After a relatively weak period Bitcoin is now showing clearer signals of moving higher. Both Gann charts and momentum charts indicate a “desire” to move away from USD 107k. I am more positive than I have been for many weeks - although I still keep orders in the market for USD 100k and USD 93k ranges. Fiat #money seems to be moving out of #gold with some of the Middle East tensions easing. I would suggest that this moneys is feeding back into the #equities and #crypto including #altcoins #altcoins.

Government Rhetoric on Inflation Hides Truth! #australia #inflation #cpi #money #gołd Successive Australian Government’s (Liberal and Labor) rhetoric on inflation continues to hide the truth. In Australia the Consumer Price Index (CPI)(PCE in US) is used interchangeably to be the measure of inflation used by Government and its central bank (Reserve Bank of Australia). The March 25 year on year (YoY) movement came in at 2.4% growth. Consumer Price Index (CPI)… The CPI comprises a basket of goods which is frequently changed and many would argue excludes some critical (household) cost components. Real Inflation … Real inflation comes from a growth in money supply. Broad Money (M3 in Australia - M2 elsewhere) grew by 5.84% for the 12 months ended April 25 - significantly higher than the touted inflation rate. In the writers opinion, a growth in money supply actually leads to inflation higher than the M3 growth. If we assumed that #gold is closer to real and stable money then its growth compared to the Australian dollar indicates that for the 12 months ended 22 June 25 Australia’s True Inflation was nearly 37% pa. I think many Australians trying to pay their way would acknowledge that prices are generally rising greater than 5.84% and some would guess maybe 20% plus. They are right!!! Interest Rates … Should interest rates be lowered? As much as it pains me to say this - it is not justified and if Australia goes down that track we will have to reverse quite quickly within two years. People who have jumped into the property market on the basis of lower interest rates risk being blind-sided in the near future. See below a graph of Money Supply, Gold Movements (against AUD) and moving averages of gold movements on 26 week and 52 week bases.

Gold Sending Differing Short Term Signals #gold #silver Most individuals “stacking” #gold and #silver are not unduly concerned about short term market signals as their underlying holdings tend to stay in place for years at a time. At times, however, re-entry into the market for buying or selling is necessary. Presently #gold is sending conflicting signals which I believe is primarily related to the Middle East crisis - will the truce hold or not? I do not intend to enter into any discussion on the Israel/Iran situation except to say any war is a sad situation for most people in the affected area whether you are called to fight or not. Personally, I pray that all people in the region may be able to return to a peaceful and safe life. Turning back to #gold it is presently indicating a continued upward trend; however, in the immediate term I expect it to make a lower top than that achieved on 17 Jun 25 - if the present ME ceasefire holds. This could open up buying opportunities at a low of USD 3,250 (plus commissions) per t/oz before the end of June 25. Australian buyers continue to deal with FOREX issues but could see buying as low as spot AUD 5,000 to 5,050 (plus commissions). Sitting in the background is the risk of the ME ceasefire failing which will see an immediate turn around of gold to the up side. Daily Gann Swing below.

Bitcoin - bumpy ride down for now! #bitcoin Good buying opportunities are now developing for Bitcoin investors. Having hit the USD 100k range its overall focus remains around USD 103k. I expect a climb back to USD 105k area and then a fall, maybe progressively to USD 93k which I believe will be the next buying opportunity. IMHO I think #bitcoin is unlikely to breach USD 90k as the currency continues to show more overall stability than #fiat and other #crypto alternatives. World affairs seem to be the critical factor at the moment as I still believe #gold remains a favoured asset of many due to its overall long-term status in the market place. Daily Gann Swing chart is below.

Gold Shows a Nice Upwards Pattern :-) #gold #gann Gold is now showing a nice upwards trend with regular pull-backs providing buying opportunities. Next buy in should be around spot of USD 3,350 - 3,375 t/oz (or AUD 5,150 - 5,200) plus bullion dealer commission of say USD 35 (AUD 50).