New post on the substack - Will the Bitcoin Halving be a sell-the-news event?

All eyes on the Bitcoin Halving

Is the Bitcoin Halving a sell-the-news event?

Finally, the monthly inside bar and up continues to play out so while we may see some profit-taking in the short term the best course of action remains to look at dips as buying opportunities for trend continuation. #bitcoin

On the upside, we have the 38547 area which has some structure that is likely to be tested if we can break upwards.

So this is how I would draw the current BF on #BTC with some poor market structure around the 30000 area which is a reasonable area for a re-test.

Interestingly, the last time we had a momo-up on $BTC on the 3M chart was in Q4 2015, making that period the most analogous to our current cycle.

#Bitcoin chart update. $BTC goes momo-up on the quarterly. This is not an ideal scenario as it leaves behind some weak market structure that tends to get retested. Anyone who chased the last couple of sessions will likely find themselves shortly underwater.

Weekly seasonal $BTC data if you subscribe to such things. #bitcoin

How it started, how it's going YTD. The $BTC data is about one day delayed but the seasonality appears to be playing out. #Bitcoin

Watch $BTC last quarter's pivots carefully. Will #Bitcoin break last quarter's high and go momo up? Or do we remain inside quarter and setup for something in Q1 2024? #trading

VIX marked the upper BF trendline and sellers stepped in. Times like this are notable. The bears got everything they could ask for but couldn't hold on to the gains. Now the US 10-year yields are pulling back and $EURUSD is firming up. It looks likely that we will get a bounce in equities. So with the risk-on back in equities, will flows continue to pile into crypto as it has been negatively correlated with the SPY/QQQ lately? Or do we get the coveted rally in both equities and crypto to close out Uptober?

Keep an eye on the Yen which is set to break down. USDJPY weekly outside-inside and up. What will be the macro catalyst to ignite the move?🔥 https://iris.to/note1wytf8fe9uqvw0v6lqt8pxd0qas754rpeg40zmdsquaxswxw0hrcqaqkw7m

The inverse Cramer indicator is undefeated. 🤣

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NEW: Jim Cramer says “#Bitcoin is about to go down big!” Thanks. I’m all-in! 🤑

$BTC has reclaimed the 27508 pivot point which brings the monthly inside and up break back into play. We still have some weak market structure around the 29000 area that I'm watching to fill.

gm $BTC seasonality continues to play out as noted previously, so I hope you loaded the boat on this dip. Remember, when you see the crowd all leaning on one side of the boat, you need to lean the other way. #trading #bitcoin

As noted, we retested the 27176 pivot on $BTC. ✅ Breadth in the crypto market is extended to the downside. ✅ The risk/reward now favors being long and I will start accumulating around these levels. 📉📈 https://iris.to/note1kn6n8kr5v5u65ulj9c5zt9qkx236xs4hh7ea8ymhe7dsq87mh8hspevcvc Catching the exact bottom is not always easy so a good tactic is to leg into the trade and add on potential weakness and/or confirmation of the reversal. A break back above 27508 puts the monthly breakout back in play. #Bitcoin #trading

PSA - Markets don't bottom on Fridays. 📉

NFP #'s came in way too hot. 🔥 It will be difficult for the Fed to justify a slowdown in rate hikes if it continues its "data-dependent" stance. Look at the reaction on the US 10 year yields.

Thanks for playing along. $SPY $VIX

So you thought it was going to be up-only Uptober? Think again. Looking back at the average weekly returns for $BTC since 2010, week 40 has traditionally been a weak week. So if you subscribe to seasonality, this week should mark the local bottom. If you're a more active trader, you can start looking for bottoming formations that, if they work, will provide good asymmetric upside. #trading #Bitcoin

By now, most of you have probably seen a chart similar to this one, which shows that September is historically a seasonally weak month for $BTC. An interesting follow-up question is what does history have to say about months where September was actually positive? Was the following month and the rest of the year positive? Interestingly, since 2010, there have been 4 occasions where Sept. had positive returns. After that, 3/4 had positive returns in October. All 4/4 had positive returns in November and 3/4 had positive returns in December. So on net, seasonally, it hasn't paid to be short #Bitcoin in Q4.