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MORAL FI₿ER
jackmdurden@nostrplebs.com
npub1sfva...ulgn
Framework to live with integrity: health, family, work, money, purpose. Pen name. Personal experience only, think for yourself. Bitcoin. Economics. Finance. Values.
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JackMDurden 2 weeks ago
The universe smoothed its own violence over 13 billion years. Inflation so slow it faded into the background of a lifetime. Bitcoin does it on purpose. High and fast at the start, then halving and halving until it fades to almost nothing. The Fed can't print it. AI can't debase it. Across every scale of time, it holds its shape. Stack sats. Never sell your coins. #grownostr #bitcoin
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JackMDurden 2 weeks ago
Bitcoin is $65K and every dial on the dashboard is reading cold. Last time they read this cold, price was $20K. The timeline was calling for $10K and writing the obituary. Bitcoin is dead. Again. Yet here we are. Three times higher, same four signals flashing the same thing they flashed in 2022 and 2018. The price is a number anyone can read. The signal is what it means, and the last few months all four have lined up. Where we actually are, what the OGs are quietly doing, and the only move that makes sense right now:
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JackMDurden 1 month ago
Your DCA is $65K. I know because you're still here. Still here because you know what's coming and you've built the patience for it. 2029, 2033, doesn't matter. If you'd started earlier you'd have bought the 2017 top at $20K and watched it become the 2022 bottom. The top you bought becomes the floor you stand on. You just have to still be here.
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JackMDurden 1 month ago
Three phases to a Bitcoin halving cycle. Three completely different worlds in terms of news, adoption, price, and haters. And the cycle peaks all fell inside a three-week window on the block clock across three separate cycles. Nobody planned that. The protocol just kept working. Accumulation: negativity is the signal. Be psycho about free cash flow. Profit: polarity flips. Don't be a trader. Think clearly about what you have. Hold: watch the block counter not the price. Stack dry powder. The hardest thing to do in Bitcoin is nothing. Part 2 of the Bitcoin Conviction Cycle: #bitcoin #grownostr image
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JackMDurden 1 month ago
Bitcoin One Million by Krueger and Sigman makes one argument cleanly: $1M Bitcoin is inevitable based on a 48-month power law with R-squared of 0.99. The line the whole book rests on: "when you can't win playing by the rules, the only logical move is to play a different game entirely." My kids already look at me like I'm crazy when I try to explain a VCR. Someday they'll look at fiat money the same way. I'd rather be wrong about Bitcoin than ignore it hoping the system fixes itself. #bitcoin #grownostr
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JackMDurden 1 month ago
I had Bitcoin's price on my watch. Checked it at 2am. In the shower. In meetings that should have been emails. That is anxiety pretending to be conviction. 210,000 blocks per halving. Every cycle the same sequence of human behavior plays out. Supply drops. Market reprices. Conviction holders accumulate. Price activates. Late money piles in. Price peaks. Distribution. Grind lower. Accumulate again. We are roughly 22 weeks from the bottom of the current hold cycle. Last time we were at this block position in 2022 the weekly close was $21,096. It bottomed at $16,647 in December of that year. Part 1 of a 4 part Bitcoin series, where we are and what the framework says to do about it. #bitcoin #grownostr
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JackMDurden 1 month ago
Q2 is closed. 71 workouts. 45 posts. 77 hours writing. 42 hours reading. Net worth down 8.6%. Bitcoin down 32% and I didn't sell a sat. Two people told me I looked relaxed on the same day without knowing the other said it. Ten years in that building. Never happened before. What changed? Everything and nothing. The job is the same. The system is the same. What changed is the person inside it. Q2 accountability — the full version: #bitcoin #grownostr
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JackMDurden 2 months ago
Father's Day. Wife took the kids to Costco and told me to do whatever I wanted. I made a coffee, finished a draft, then went for a run. Already lifted that morning. Knackered. Hot. Didn't care. On the other side of a bridge over the river the dirt trail opens up. Gravel. Dirt. Sun. Shade. Three miles or ten. No agenda. Shirt off. Nowhere to be. That feeling is freedom. Not the concept. The actual physical sensation of it. I used to not have this. Everything I write about is the distance between the person who does and doesn't. #bitcoin #grownostr image
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JackMDurden 2 months ago
Alphabet recently raised $85B in equity. Largest offering ever. The four hyperscalers are guiding to $700-725B in 2026 capex, up 70%+ from last year. Nobody adjusts that for input cost inflation. A power transformer that cost $3M in 2020 costs $5.4M now. Lead times hit 210 weeks. Every party in this chain gets paid more the longer the spending continues. Hardware manufacturers, construction firms, utilities, executives, analysts. Nobody gets paid to say slow down. This is moral hazard before the correction, not conspiracy. The people profiting won't tell you when the wheels come off. #bitcoin #grownostr
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JackMDurden 2 months ago
Import and export price indexes May 2026: The last time the pipeline looked like this, the Fed had to hike rates from 1.75% to 5.25% in 16 months to drag CPI from 9.1% back to 3%, and Warsh walks into his first FOMC meeting this week with a president demanding rate cuts, an energy war with no exit ramp, and producer prices screaming that the worst of it hasn't hit the consumer yet. Going to get interesting from here.
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JackMDurden 2 months ago
I love living in a neighborhood where all the Dad’s yell slow down at cars passing through. Slow down.
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JackMDurden 2 months ago
Two BLS reports this week tell the same story. Productivity up, labor share at a 79-year low, real wages falling. Then today: 172K jobs added, almost all in the lowest-paid sectors. Long-term unemployed up 524K over the year. The economy produces more with less and the gains go to capital. The 4.3% headline is a mask. Build accordingly. #bitcoin #grownostr
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JackMDurden 2 months ago
Labor share of output just hit 53.7%. Lowest since 1947. Economy grew output 3.2% with 0.4% more hours. Real compensation fell. Manufacturing is producing more with fewer people for six years running. The productivity gains are real. They’re going to capital, not labor. Nobody is coming to fix this for you. #bitcoin #grownostr https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf image