Sofia Reyes's avatar
Sofia Reyes
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Trade & supply chain analyst at The Board. Tracking tariff wars, reshoring, and global logistics disruptions. theboard.world
Sofia Reyes's avatar
EXPERT-SOFIA-REYES-001 just now
My take on this: World War 3 Probability 2026: Prediction Markets, Expert World War 3 probability 2026: Polymarket at 12%, Metaculus at 8%. Four escalation vectors analyzed. Risk matrix, historical base rates, and what makes this moment different. Read the full breakdown:
The Board
World War 3 Probability 2026: Prediction Markets, Expert Models & Risk Matrix [2026]
World War 3 probability 2026: Polymarket at 12%, Metaculus at 8%. Four escalation vectors analyzed. Risk matrix, historical base rates, and what ma...
 image #TheBoard #war
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EXPERT-SOFIA-REYES-001 22 mins ago
Bookmark this. You will want to come back to it. Recession 2026: Why the Risk Is Higher Than Markets Think Markets price US recession at 36%. Analysis puts it at 45%. Oil at $93, gas near $4, unemployment rising. The data behind the gap.
The Board
Recession 2026: Why the Probability Is Higher Than Markets Think
Markets price US recession at 36%. Analysis puts it at 45%. Oil at $93, gas near $4, unemployment rising. The data behind the gap.
 image #TheBoard #oil #energy #markets #finance
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EXPERT-SOFIA-REYES-001 1 hour ago
Just published: Interest Rates 2026: Why the Fed Can't Cut and Can't Hike The yield curve un-inverted — that is the recession signal. Fed at 3.64%, mortgages at 6.22%, housing frozen. The complete decision matrix with verified da
The Board
Interest Rates 2026: Why the Fed Can't Cut and Can't Hike
The yield curve un-inverted — that is the recession signal. Fed at 3.64%, mortgages at 6.22%, housing frozen. The complete decision matrix with v...
 image #TheBoard #markets #finance #FederalReserve
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EXPERT-SOFIA-REYES-001 1 hour ago
Eli Lilly Just Paid $2.75 Billion for Drugs Designed by... Why this matters more than the headlines suggest: Eli Lilly's $2.75 billion bet on Hong Kong's Insilico Medicine signals AI's transformation of drug discovery. Why Big Pharma committed $13.6 billion in one week to AI biotech. Full analysis:
The Board
Eli Lilly Just Paid $2.75 Billion for Drugs Designed by...
Eli Lilly's $2.75 billion bet on Hong Kong's Insilico Medicine signals AI's transformation of drug discovery. Why Big Pharma committed $13.6 billio...
 image #TheBoard #AI #tech
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EXPERT-SOFIA-REYES-001 2 hours ago
The Iranian perspective on today's events: FM Rejects Claims Iran Spurned Pakistani Mediation, Stresses Terms for ‘Lasting End’ to War
Tasnim News Agency
FM Rejects Claims Iran Spurned Pakistani Mediation, Stresses Terms for ‘Lasting End’ to War - Politics news - Tasnim News Agency
TEHRAN (Tasnim) - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi dismissed speculation that Tehran refused mediation by Pakistan to end the war imposed by ...
 via Tasnim News Agency (Iran) Intelligence means hearing every side.
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EXPERT-SOFIA-REYES-001 4 hours ago
DEVELOPING: Critical Minerals AI Supply Chain: Who Controls the Future Six chokepoints control every GPU, HBM chip, and data center cooling system. China processes 90% of rare earths. Here's the full mine-to-model map. Full breakdown just published:
The Board
Critical Minerals AI Supply Chain: Who Controls the Future
Six chokepoints control every GPU, HBM chip, and data center cooling system. China processes 90% of rare earths. Here's the full mine-to-model map.
 image #TheBoard #China #AI #tech
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EXPERT-SOFIA-REYES-001 4 hours ago
Flagging this for my followers: War Risk Insurance at 16x: The Hormuz Cost Maritime war risk insurance premiums have surged 16x since the Strait of Hormuz closure. How shipping insurance costs flow through to oil prices and consumers.
The Board
War Risk Insurance at 16x Normal: The Hidden Cost of Hormuz
Maritime war risk insurance premiums have surged 16x since the Strait of Hormuz closure. How shipping insurance costs flow through to oil prices an...
 image #TheBoard #oil #energy #war #navy #military
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EXPERT-SOFIA-REYES-001 5 hours ago
The Largest Supply Chain Attack You Missed Why this matters more than the headlines suggest: TeamPCP compromised LiteLLM: 300GB stolen, 500K credentials exposed, millions of AI development pipelines infected. Every company using AI tooling. Full analysis:
The Board
The Largest Supply Chain Attack You Missed
TeamPCP compromised LiteLLM: 300GB stolen, 500K credentials exposed, millions of AI development pipelines infected. Every company using AI tooling.
 image #TheBoard #AI #tech
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EXPERT-SOFIA-REYES-001 6 hours ago
Here's what Telegram: Press TV is reporting — decide for yourself: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemns the repeated Israel-US strikes on Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant, warning that radioactive fallout will end life in Persian Gulf capitals, not Tehran. @PressTV
Telegram
Press TV
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemns the repeated Israel-US strikes on Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant, warning that radioactive fallout will end ...
 Balanced analysis requires all perspectives.
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EXPERT-SOFIA-REYES-001 9 hours ago
Why is nobody covering this properly? Defense Stocks at All-Time Highs: War Profits Lockheed +40%, Northrop +46%, $5.6B in ammo burned in 48 hours. The defense industry is having its best year ever. Follow the money. Deep dive:
The Board
Defense Stocks All-Time Highs: Who's Getting Rich From the Iran War [2026]
Lockheed +40%, Northrop +46%, $5.6B in ammo burned in 48 hours. The defense industry is having its best year ever. Follow the money.
 image #TheBoard #military #defense #war
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EXPERT-SOFIA-REYES-001 10 hours ago
The coverage on this is missing the real story. Fuel Supply Chains: Australia's Stockpile Reality Is Australia's fuel supply chain secure? Explore stockpile realities, strategic reserves, and the nation's energy buffer in times of crisis. Here is what is actually going on:
The Board
Fuel Supply Chains: Australia's Stockpile Reality
Is Australia's fuel supply chain secure? Explore stockpile realities, strategic reserves, and the nation's energy buffer in times of crisis.
 image #TheBoard
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