Goldman's Gold Guru Sees 'Significant Upside Risk' To $5400 Forecast
Recent commentary from Goldman Sachs' commodities research team (often led by analysts like Lina Thomas or Daan Struyven, who cover precious metals and could be informally called their "gold guru").
In early 2026, Goldman Sachs set (and has since reiterated) a **price target** for gold of **$5,400 per troy ounce** by the end of December 2026. This was an upward revision from a prior forecast (e.g., around $4,900 in late 2025/early 2026 updates), driven by strong demand factors.
The key phrase **"significant upside risk"** means that Goldman views the **risks to their $5,400 target as skewed positively** — in other words, gold prices are more likely to **exceed** $5,400 by end-2026 than to fall short of it. Their base forecast already incorporates:
- Continued **central bank buying** (around 60 tonnes per month on average, as emerging market banks diversify reserves away from other assets).
- Increased **private investor purchases** into gold ETFs, especially as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates (making non-yielding gold more attractive relative to bonds or cash).
However, their model **does not fully account for** an additional major driver: **further private-sector diversification** into gold. Western investors (e.g., in the US) currently allocate only a tiny portion (~0.20%) of financial portfolios to gold ETFs. If that share rises even modestly due to ongoing concerns like global policy uncertainty, fiscal sustainability, geopolitical risks, or "debasement" hedging (fears of currency weakening from high debt/monetary trends), it could add substantial extra demand. Goldman estimates that every 1 basis point increase in gold's portfolio share (from new buying, not just price gains) could boost the gold price by roughly 1.5%.
This potential extra demand from private investors is what they highlight as a **"significant upside risk"** — a bullish tailwind not baked into the $5,400 base case, meaning the actual price could go **materially higher** if it materializes strongly.
Context in the gold market (as of mid-February 2026): Gold has seen extreme volatility recently — surging to near $5,300 in late January before a sharp historic sell-off (dropping back to the high $4,000s), then rebounding somewhat toward $5,000+. Despite pullbacks (often tied to short-term Western flows, options positioning, or profit-taking), major banks like Goldman remain structurally bullish on gold's long-term uptrend, viewing dips as buying opportunities rather than trend reversals. Other firms (e.g., JPMorgan at higher targets like $6,300) show similar optimism.
Overall, the statement signals strong confidence from one of Wall Street's most influential voices that gold has **more room to run** beyond their already elevated $5,400 year-end 2026 projection, primarily from untapped private investment flows.
