This week's Intel Update is out 👍The Middle East remains in the balance this week as most Gulf States make preparations for the continuation of the war. Tensions are also boiling in Europe as a bit of a coup is underway in Poland, and the war in Ukraine continues to escalate. Here at home, the Pentagon makes preparations for the defense of military forces in the homeland, with several high-profile drills and policies causing concern among taxpayers. Link:

//The Wire//1500Z October 30, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TARGETING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ESCALATE IN MIDDLE EAST. PRESIDENT TRUMP AND VP VANCE HALT PUBLIC APPEARANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MISSILE DEFENSES INSTALLED AT MAR-A-LAGO AND PALM BEACH AIRPORT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight, fighting intensified within the Strait of Hormuz and coastal areas of Iran. A total of 4x airstrikes were reported in the Iranian port of Jask, which were carried out by CENTCOM targeting IRGC missile/drone launch sites. Within the Strait, Iranian targeting of merchant vessels continues with more strikes being reported early this morning. Analyst Comment: Last night Saudi Arabia was hit hard as well, with many impacts being reported in Riyadh and some of the oil refineries along Gulf coast. Due to the extreme censorship (and arrest of anyone who's caught posting videos of impacts), corroborating the exact points of impact is challenging. However, the general atmospheric by locals is that Saudi got hit harder last night than they have in a while, as Houthi targeting continues to increase in effectiveness. -HomeFront- Florida: Over the past week, Surface-to-Air missile (SAM) defenses have been installed at Mar-a-Lago and the nearby Palm Beach International Airport (which has recently been renamed to be the Donald J. Trump International Airport.) Multiple Avenger missile systems have been deployed at the request of the US Secret Service, for purposes of targeting hostile drones. Two Avenger pods have been installed on a floating barge at Mar-a-Lago, with an additional battery being deployed near the end of a runway at the airport. Analyst Comment: Prior to the recent Gulf War, there were only a handful of operational SAM sites within the United States, most of which were located in the Washington D.C. area. The most famous missile defense site is located on the roof of the New Executive Office Building (NEOB), which defends the White House from aerial threats. As President Trump has become more concerned about his personal security, mobile missile systems are now accompanying him to most places he goes. The very public addition of Avenger systems at his personal residence and at the airport he frequents most is another indicator that major threats are increasingly more likely. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Like a slow Band-Aid pull, indications and warnings are peeling off by the day to suggest that the United States is conducting the late-stage preparations necessary for another offensive operation to kick off. Yesterday Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) publicly stated that he had been briefed on the Pentagon's war plans as part of his committee positions in Congress. He stated that the US is planning to make good on the prior threats to target civilian infrastructure in Iran, and that the plan is not feasible (in his words, it's "insane"). Of course, weight must be given to statements made by sources that cannot be independently confirmed, but as it stands this is the testimony from an elected official who has access to classified Congressional briefings, for what it's worth. At minimum, this is rather solid evidence that a plan not only exists, but is probably in it's late planning phases. Otherwise, the plethora of leaks from within the Pentagon continue to point toward the same series of ideas, all from different sources: The general plan is for a short-duration, intense bombing campaign similar to Operation Epic Fury to begin after the midterms next week. Of course, Operation Epic Fury itself was supposed to be a 72 hour operation, then a 4-6 week operation, before transitioning into an 8 month war, but the scuttlebutt around Washington is that the plan is for this to be "short". Based on the unexplained scheduling changes and the recent addition of SAM sites at Mar-a-Lago, speculation abounds that whatever is about to happen, is imminent. As always time will tell, but as with most weekends during the war, the next window for possible escalations will begin upon the closing bell on Wall Street this afternoon, and carry on throughout the weekend. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z October 29, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: JOINT STAFF PLANNER FIRED DUE TO ALLEGED MISCONDUCT. FIRE REPORTED AT SOUTH CAROLINA NUCLEAR WEAPONS PRODUCTION FACILITY, SITUATION REPORTEDLY UNDER CONTROL. TARGETING CONTINUES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND IN SAUDI ARABIA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight, Iranian targeting continued in the Strait of Hormuz. One merchant vessel was struck just north of the Musandam Peninsula, while attempting to make the crossing. As of this morning, the vessel was still on fire. This afternoon, two more vessels were struck in the same general area. Within Saudi Arabia, strikes were also reported targeting the Ras Tanura refinery once again, with multiple impacts being reported by locals. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Yesterday evening LTG. Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff's Director for Strategy, Plans & Policy was relieved of duty. Sylvia was fired due to misconduct, however the exact nature of the dismissal has not yet been made public. Analyst Comment: Initially, an unnamed spokesperson for the Joint Staff issued a statement to The Hill, thanking him for his service and wishing him the best. Later on, the well-wishes were retracted, with the spokesperson stating that "Upon further review, we determined that the statement did not appropriately reflect the full circumstances". Inside the beltway, whenever a boilerplate "thank you for your service" template statement gets retracted, this is usually an indication that something exceptionally serious happened. Rumors have consequently been flying overnight; some claims state that he was leaking classified information to the press, and others claim he was fired for his opposition to the war. As it stands, more time and information is needed to determine what the truth actually is regarding this very public and immediate firing. South Carolina: Last night, a major incident was reported at the Savannah River National Laboratory. At approximately 05:07 pm, local authorities state that a fire broke out at the facility, which at the time was suspected of involving nuclear material. An emergency airspace closure with a 15 nautical mile radius was issued around the facility, with the flight restriction notice stating the reason was due to a "US GOVT NUCLEAR INCIDENT". A few hours after the initial notice was issued, the all-clear was given and the flight restrictions lifted. The official press release states that no contamination has been detected, and workers were allowed to return to the site for regular shift work this morning. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: The Savannah River Site houses one of the most secret facilities in the United States. During the Cold War, this facility was responsible for the production of Plutonium and the assembly of nuclear warheads as well as precursor materials needed for weapons production. At present, none of the nuclear reactors are operational at the site, however the facility is still producing Tritium for use in warhead production, and substantial amounts of radiological waste are also stored on site. Additionally, two weeks ago construction began on a brand-new $24 billion Plutonium Processing Facility to revitalize the plant and return it to more active service. As a result, this site is highly sensitive and extremely well guarded. In terms of the raw data, the assortment of radiological meters available to the public (both privately owned and NGO-run) have detected no radiation leak or contamination from outside the facility. No smoke was observed by locals either, and from the outside there has been no indication of anything abnormal. Various statements by officials initially implied that a radiation leak did occur, but did not spread beyond the facility. Later statements by officials flatly deny any contamination being reported at all. As to what actually happened last night, it's anyone's guess. When incidents take place at sensitive nuclear sites like this, there are checklists upon checklists that dictate what the response should be, based on what incident took place. The creation of a 30 mile airspace closure zone around the main complex is one of these standard procedures, however it is also a clue as to *which kind* of procedure was being adhered to. In short, last night's response was trending toward the worst-case scenarios that are planned for. Overreacting out of an abundance of caution is a good idea with events like this, however due to the lack of public transparency at very secret sites, the public is usually left rather concerned with no explanation usually being given due to national security reasons. Clearly, the Incident Commander thought that the fire threatened nuclear material at the time, and as a result was working down the more serious pages in the response binder. In a larger sense, incidents like this complicate an already intense information space. Due to the plethora of other unrelated incidents in the news cycle, the internet is saturated with many different stories, many of which have the intended goal of manipulation. From podcasters stoking up fear to sell freeze-dried food, to defense industry professionals trying to get contracts, there is a lot of motivation to make mountains out of molehills in the lead up to the midterm elections. This presents a unique challenge, because there are legitimate and extremely concerning issues that are unfolding right now; the cybersecurity "Black October" is still developing, the war in the Middle East is probably going to escalate soon, and the continual expansion of the Ukraine war is also cause for genuine concern. However, there's also a lot of motivation to manipulate public sentiment for a variety of reasons. As such, discernment is going to be a valuable trait to strive for, as the information space becomes saturated with both genuine emergencies and manipulative situations in the lead up to the midterms. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z October 28, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MAJOR TRAIN DERAILMENT REPORTED IN SPAIN. PRESIDENT TRUMP STATES THAT ANOTHER EPIC FURY-STYLE OPERATION MAY BEGIN AFTER THE MIDTERMS. PENTAGON SENDS ANOTHER PATRIOT BATTERY TO ISRAEL. NO CLEAR WINNER OF ELECTION DECLARED IN ISRAELI ELECTION. CONTAINERSHIP STRUCK BY DRONES IN BLACK SEA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Spain: This morning a major incident was reported on the Seville/Madrid rail line in the province of Toledo. Local authorities state that a Renfe train rear-ended an Iryo train that was halted on the track, as both were heading toward Seville. Concerning casualties, the collision resulted in a total of 46x fatalities, and 179x injured. The cause of the crash has not yet been disclosed officially, however initial reports indicate the Renfe train might have inadvertently been given instruction to proceed past a red signal. Middle East: Overnight the Pentagon began the deployment of another Patriot battery to Israel, with transport aircraft being noted moving the air defense system to the region. Otherwise logistical movements continue as before, with routine cargo flights remaining constant throughout the region. Analyst Comment: Last night President Trump himself stated at a rally in Florida that "we may do another little Epic Fury" after the midterm elections, directly confirming that the intent is present to return to the more kinetic phase of the war. Whether or not this is a genuine plan is debatable; President Trump has a history of changing his mind at the last minute....but with warfare, he has rarely bluffed. Considering the broad history of the war over the past eight months, the recent rhetoric is more indicative of a return to combat conditions rather than empty threats intended to sway diplomatic efforts. Black Sea: This afternoon another vessel was struck within Bulgarian waters, with the M/V *CONTSHIP JET* (IMO: 9348625) reporting being hit by three drones early this morning. None of the crew members were wounded, and all were rescued after abandoning ship. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Within Israel, the vote count continued overnight, with no clear winner emerging by morning. Current vote counts as of this afternoon indicate that neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot have received the majority needed to form a government without a coalition. Based on the official vote count so far, this is looking like a de facto victory for Netanyahu, even though his party is likely going to lose the majority lead they previously held. In Parliamentary systems around the world, parties which fail to get a majority, must form a coalition government with another party, counting that party's votes toward the total. In short, if a party can't clear 50%, they will have to join together with a smaller party to bump them up into the majority. Normally, when coalition governments are formed, political deals are made: the smaller party gets positions in government (and thus more power), and the larger party gets to form the majority of government. In this case, the margin is razor thin even a day after the polls closed. In the short term, the election is not likely to result in much immediate change, at least not within the window of potential escalation that's on the menu over the next few weeks. If neither party is able to secure a majority, Netanyahu remains Prime Minister for several more months, as some form of coalition is formed. If no agreement can be achieved, the election itself will be run once again next spring and the process starts all over again, with Netanyahu remaining Prime Minister in the meantime. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z October 27, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: HOUTHI ATTACKS CONTINUE AS EGYPT AUTHORIZES MILITARY DEPLOYMENT TO SAUDI ARABIA. BRAZILIAN ELECTION RESULTS IN LULA VICTORY, BOLSONARO REPORTEDLY FLEES TO UNITED STATES TO AVOID ARREST. BARRICADED SHOOTER SITUATION REPORTED IN MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Persian Gulf: Houthi attacks continued yesterday evening, with missile impacts being reported at the Ras Tanura petroleum hub in Saudi Arabia. Separately, a tanker vessel was struck off the coast of Kuwait yesterday which resulted in unknown damage. Egypt: On Monday, the Egyptian Parliament voted to authorize the deployment of troops to Saudi Arabia, to provide defensive forces for the Kingdom as Houthi attacks continue to escalate. Analyst Comment: There has been some speculation that Egypt might seek to get involved with the war on the Houthis, however this might be a bridge too far for the Egyptian military, which has not conducted large scale combat operations outside her borders since 1991. Nevertheless, the total troop deployment will be important to follow, as Saudi Arabia does not have a ground force capable of any major ground offensive in Yemen and the Egyptian Army would be a candidate to supplement whatever the Saudis have planned. Brazil: Last night the elections concluded with a victory for current incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Flávio Bolsonaro has not conceded defeat, and reportedly escaped the country on a private aircraft this afternoon to avoid being immediately arrested. Analyst Comment: Brazilian politics are often very high stakes, and in this case Bolsonaro was very likely to be arrested on whatever charges could be written up. Unconfirmed reporting from within the White House indicates that he was possibly extracted more directly by the United States, who had allegedly planned to get him out of the country with US assets in the event that he lost. Israel: This afternoon the national elections came to a close, with early exit polls indicating no clear winner. As of this report, Eisenkot's faction was barely leading, but the race is neck-and-neck in the hours after the polls closed. United Kingdom: This week a new series of Respect Orders went into effect, granting authorities more power to restrict the behavior of individuals throughout the nation. These new Respect Orders build on pre-existing Anti-Social Behavior Orders, which ban "behaviour by a person which causes, or is likely to cause, harassment, alarm or distress to persons not of the same household as the person". As such, individuals who may possibly cause someone stress in the future, can now be imprisoned for up to two years. London: This morning two men appeared in court on charges pertaining to their involvement in the alleged terror plot at RAF Fairford three weeks ago. The accused have been identified as Mohmed Ahmad Abdulkarim and Nouman Essghir, two individuals who were allegedly involved in some manner with the attempt to load three vans with fuel drums in an attempt to conduct some sort of attack. Analyst Comment: Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words, and for those seeking to determine whether or not this incident was a false-flag operation, the evidence presented so far during this case has been very illuminating. The lead suspect being wheelchair bound due to a serious medical condition is merely the latest detail that casts doubt as to the validity of rest the investigation, which now borders on the absurd. Four of the other suspects remain at large after being granted bail, and so far no evidence has been presented whatsoever which indicates any attack was planned at all. No explosives were found and the suspects were not located near any gate or base entrance. Nevertheless, the United States has formally taken the position that this was a terror attack, after which the United Kingdom adopted the same position as well. -HomeFront- Michigan: Overnight a barricaded shooter situation was reported on Running Deer Ridge in Leroy. Local authorities state that the incident began after the suspect's parents became concerned about their son's behavior, which prompted law enforcement becoming involved last night. Upon arrival, the situation immediately devolved into a standoff, as the suspect remained barricaded within the family residence. During the standoff, a total of two police drones were shot down, which prompted civil aviation at the nearby Battle Creek Executive Airport to halt operations for some time. Eventually, the standoff came to an end after the suspect set the structure on fire from within. Only one fatality was reported (the suspect) who has been identified as 35 year old Travis Baker. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Around the world, governments have continued to urge their populations to prepare for calamity, in the event that conflict comes to their various homelands. The United Kingdom has been carrying out their "Be Ready" preparedness campaign since last week, along with similar campaigns in Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, and many others. Japan has also rolled out their latest disaster response plan to dramatically increase the stockpiled resources in the event of emergency, however Japan's system is almost entirely constructed around earthquake preparedness and not the warfare/conflict that Europe is expecting. Due to these efforts taking place around the same time as yesterday's announcement from the Pentagon regarding domestic military preparedness efforts, concerns are growing throughout the western world. To be sure, there is great financial incentive to generate panic buying, which must always be considered as well. At the moment, there is only one major flashpoint that might imminently result in regional instability, which is the potential return to more active combat conditions in the Middle East. However, even if the worst should happen in that case, the impacts within the homeland would not be as apocalyptic as social media might lead people to believe. Rational, proportionate, reasonable, and feasible preparedness efforts are always recommended, but there is currently no specific threat that would warrant panic buying or unplanned readiness measures. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z October 26, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PENTAGON ANNOUNCES PREPAREDNESS PLANS REGARDING MILITARY BASES WITHIN THE UNITED STATES. NETANYAHU ACCUSED OF TREASON FOR PLANNING OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS TO DELAY ELECTIONS. DIPLOMATIC VISITS TAKE PLACE IN IRAN AS GULF STATES SEEK TO CONTINUE EFFORTS TO DEESCALATE THE WAR.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Iran: Over the weekend, Iran conducted more ballistic missile tests, continuing the trend of earlier last week. Several launches of ballistic missiles were noted at several missile cities, as IRGC forces conducted tests of newer missile components that they have been able to develop and produce during the war. In Tehran, diplomatic endeavors continue as representatives from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey met to further de-escalation measures regarding the war, and to continue the dialog between all parties. Analyst Comment: This meeting is a big deal as this is the most public effort by Saudi Arabia to seek terms for peace. Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) sending his brother (the Defense Minister) to Tehran on peaceable terms is a diplomatic move that has not gone unnoticed by the United States and Israel. How this works out is anyone's guess, but many speculate that these are the initial first steps toward Saudi Arabia cutting a deal with the Iranians to pressure the Houthis to stop their attacks. Red Sea/HOA: Houthi attacks have intensified over the past few days, with substantial missile and drone attacks being reported along the Saudi East-West Pipeline. Abnormal flaring was observed at two pumping stations on Saturday, along with several large fires at petroleum storage depots as well. Russia: The Embassy in Tehran denied reports of evacuations over the weekend, stating that evacuations have not taken place and that they are operating as usual within Iran. Military flights continued over the weekend, however the exact nature of the cargo flights into Tehran is not known. Israel: As election day approaches, PM Netanyahu has stated that Iran has restarted their nuclear program, and are also planning to attack Israel to disrupt the elections tomorrow. Last night, former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman formally filed a request within the Knesset to open an investigation into PM Netanyahu on charges of treason, for his effort to restart the war with Iran to disrupt elections. Analyst Comment: At the eleventh hour, internal Israeli politics are rather important as the political situation cannot be extricated from the military situation. Many of Netanyahu's opponents within the Israeli government have countered his statements on Iranian attack plans, with many critics stating that he's fabricating the threat for political gain. Over the weekend, rumors emerged that Netanyahu had actually given the order to attack Iran, however IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir pushed back on the order. Some say that he requested the order in writing and dragged his feet on the implementation, while other sources claim he flat out refused the order entirely. At the moment these claims are unconfirmed, however that's what's on the front page of domestic Israeli news organizations on the eve of their election day. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - The Pentagon announced a new initiative, Project FORTRESS, which is a preparedness plan to ensure that military bases within the United States could operate without any outside support for 90 days, in the event of enemy attack. This program is intended to come online within the next few years, with planning efforts beginning shortly. Analyst Comment: This plan was initially announced back in September as part of a list of other modernization programs, though at the time few details were released. The exact details of this plan have still not been released yet, but the plan seems to mostly center around electrical power needs. Pentagon officials are preparing for military bases to be able to function without electricity from the civilian power grid for at least three months. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Preparedness is often a paradox. On one hand, preparing for emergencies is generally a good thing, and allows for citizens to easily weather a disaster as comfortably as possible. However, when governments dial up disaster planning (particularly military planning), one might be inclined to think that government officials are planning to do something that would require those preparedness efforts in the first place. As a result, it's a delicate balance to manage reasonable preparedness, without causing undue concern throughout the populace. In the case of Project FORTRESS and many other more recent Pentagon modernization programs, this balance has not been achieved because it is purely military in nature...there are no similar efforts to modernize civilian disaster preparedness agencies at the same scale and budget as this military project. The Pentagon primarily focusing this project on CONUS military bases is rather concerning, as it indicates that situations may arise which results in a loss of electrical power throughout the nation, for up to three months. Of course, 90 days is a nice round planning figure, but military bases storing enough diesel and gasoline to run generators for three months is a gargantuan planning effort all on it's own. More storage tanks will have to be built, more generators will have to be purchased, miniaturized nuclear reactors will be needed to be brought online, and an extremely substantial logistical effort will need to take place for this goal to be achieved. At minimum, if the military is internally planning to ensure their own survival during a 90-day blackout of all public utilities within the homeland, this would be a wise planning factor for prepared citizens to consider as well. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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This week, the war remains at the forefront as another round of escalations looms on the horizon. Meanwhile Europe burns with civil unrest remaining constant around the continent. The developments within the cyber realm this week, in combination with the efforts to potentially target communications infrastructure within the Middle East, highlight the importance of resilient and hardened communications that can function no matter what. Link:

//The Wire//2300Z October 23, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: SHOOTINGS REPORTED IN FRANCE. IRAN REACTIVATES MOSAIC DEFENSE PLAN, HARDENING THEIR COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS IN THE EVENT OF ATTACK. EL SALVADOR LAUNCHES MILITARY OPERATION IN HAITI TO RESCUE CAPTURED SOLDIERS. NEW WORLD SCREWWORM DETECTED IN TEXAS WILDLIFE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- France: This morning a series of drive-by shootings were reported throughout the suburbs of Paris. The first shooting was reported in the Trappes area, before the suspect maneuvered to the La Verrière district, shooting at random pedestrians along the way. The crime scene encompasses several square miles and as of this report, locations impacted by small arms fire are still being cataloged by police. The lone suspect was detained by police, though as of this report the circumstances of his arrest are not clear. Concerning victims, 1x fatality has been confirmed so far, with 3-6 others wounded as a result of the attack. More details are expected as the situation develops. Haiti: El Salvadoran troops arrived in Port au Prince this morning, expanding their presence in Haiti following the deterioration of gang activity on the island. El Salvador has been involved in the Gang Suppression Task Force mission, a UN-chartered mission to combat violent gangs and restore order throughout Haitian society. Last weekend, a patrol of Salvadoran soldiers was ambushed by gangs, with four service members being taken captive. This morning, a large contingent of Salvadoran troops landed in Port au Prince, to stage for the upcoming rescue mission of the captives, as well as clearance operations throughout the city. Analyst Comment: Though it has taken time to organize the response to this crisis, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, the legendary leader known for his extremely harsh crackdown on gangs in his nation, is not messing around. Gangs throughout the various slums in Port au Prince are preparing for a wider war, and it's very likely that intense combat operations are going to kick off within the next few days. In short, this is undoubtedly going to get very violent, very quickly. -HomeFront- Texas: Yesterday the USDA confirmed that at least one case of New World Screwworm has been detected in wildlife, confirming that the parasite has transitioned to wild fauna and not just commercially raised cattle. The detection was made in Pecos County, and was noted in an infected elk. Nebraska: STRATCOM announced the kickoff of exercise GLOBAL THUNDER 27, this year's strategic demonstration of force and training scenario intended to ensure the effectiveness of strategic deterrence. Analyst Comment: This exercise is completely normal but in the context of the wider impending war in the Middle East, these drills present the side-benefit of obfuscating the deployment of strategic assets. Many plane-watchers are going to have a hard time determining which movement of bombers is part of the drill...and which assets are taking off to conduct bombings in the Middle East. USA: Around the nation, this morning Brent crude futures surged to over $114/bbl during early morning trading, with WTI crude passing $100/bbl as well. Gas and diesel prices have continued to rise nationwide over the past few days, as most mitigation efforts (such as the suspension of gasoline taxes in midwestern states) are beginning to reach the limit of their effectiveness. Cyber: Overnight a data breach was announced involving Quest Diagnostics, a major data firm responsible for providing services to most hospitals and medical institutions around the United States. The breach includes the leak of patient data such as billing records, however Quest has not stated how many patients have been affected. More information is expected as the investigation into the breach continues. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Within the Middle East, Iranian sources claimed that the IRGC has activated their Mosaic defensive command and control doctrine, which allows regional commanders more autonomy in making decisions in the event that communications are severed with higher command structures. Serving as Iran's version of a deadman switch, this command system allows local commanders to choose targets and launch missiles on their own, if they are cut off from higher command. This is the exact same doctrine that was in place before the war began, and was the main reason for why the IRGC was devastatingly effective during the first few weeks of the war, even though a large percentage of IRGC high command was killed. If these reports are true, Iran shifting to this doctrine once again is a major indicator that Iran expects large-scale attacks imminently. Whether or not this will happen remains debatable, but right now the Iranians are absolutely convinced that it's not a matter of 'if' the US will attack, but 'when' strikes will resume. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z October 21, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MAJOR HAZMAT INCIDENT REPORTED IN OHIO AFTER CHEMICAL TANK EXPLOSION. MIDDLE EAST REMAINS TENSE AS PREPARATIONS FOR WAR CONTINUE. TARGETING OF MERCHANT VESSELS REMAINS CONSTANT IN PERSIAN GULF.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Iran: Yesterday the Iranians claimed that the United States and/or Israel struck a coastal defense site, which resulted in an anti-aircraft gun being destroyed. CENTCOM denies these reports, and there's not much from the Iranian side to prove it wasn't an accident or something else entirely. Separately, this evening another strike was reported in Sirik, though no details have been provided by either side yet. Middle East: Iranian attacks on shipping continue, with a handful of ships being struck over the past few days in the Strait of Hormuz. Around the region, preparations continue to lay the groundwork for hostilities to recommence. Over the past few days Israeli forces have conducted at least two sorties over southern Iraq, surging fighter aircraft into Iraqi airspace before withdrawing without conducting any combat operations. Analyst Comment: Yesterday, SECWAR Hegseth conducted a surprise visit to Israel to meet with PM Netanyahu regarding the future status of the war, though his exact reasons for traveling and the topics of conversation have not yet been disclosed. This afternoon unconfirmed reporting from within the State Department indicates that the families of embassy staffers around the region are quietly being relocated out of what are expected to be hot zones (such as Saudi Arabia). These claims have not yet been verified specifically, however drawdowns of diplomats has been ongoing for a while, with the State Department issuing increasingly more serious travel advisories over the past few weeks. -HomeFront- Ohio: This morning a chemical leak was reported at the MC Tank facility in North Toledo. Shortly before sunrise, large vapor clouds were observed at the facility, which rapidly spread to the surrounding area. The circumstances of the initial event are unclear, however at some point a tank containing glycidyl methacrylate ruptured and/or leaked which caused toxic fumes to cover the area. A 1 mile evacuation zone was placed around the facility containing the leak, and locals up to three miles away were advised to take a shower if they were outside during the explosion and were contaminated. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: So far, the response to the Ohio crisis has presented more questions than answers. During this morning's press briefing, local authorities did not have a clear picture of how toxic this chemical really is. This lack of knowledge is to be expected to some degree in the minutes after a disaster takes place; this specific chemical is not listed in the latest version of the DoT's Emergency Response Guidebook (ERG), which is the standard guide for determining how bad a particular chemical is during a disaster. However, analysis of the Google Streetview data available for the incident site reveals many isotainers marked with UN number 2922, indicating the contents of many of these containers may produce corrosive and/or toxic fumes. Local reports corroborate the serious nature of this incident, as citizens have reported burning lungs and eyes some distance away from the incident site. As of this afternoon the emergency response remains in place, and the investigation into the origins of the incident continues. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2000Z July 28, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MAJOR EARTHQUAKE STRIKES SOUTHERN JAPAN. NETANYAHU ARRIVES IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR SEN. GRAHAM FUNERAL. HOUTHI TARGETING OF SAUDI OIL REFINERIES REMAINS CONSTANT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Japan: This morning a major earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.1 struck the Kumamoto prefecture, causing damage to critical infrastructure and residential areas in southern Japan. Aeon Mall was one of the most heavily damaged structures, with several entrapments being reported as shoppers were unable to exit the building due to a partial collapse of the structure. After this collapse, a gas explosion was also reported at the mall, and as of this morning approximately 20-30x people remained missing. Middle East: No major changes to the overall situation were reported overnight. Satellite imagery has become available that confirms the Houthis not just hit the Jazan refinery a few days ago, but also the refinery at Yanbu. This afternoon, the Houthis announced that they had targeted a tanker vessel which has been at anchor off Yanbu for a few days, though the success of this targeting has not yet been confirmed. Analyst Comment: Despite the devastating strikes on Saudi oil facilities over the past few days, oil markets continue to plummet, indicating a sharp departure from the reality of the situation. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Yesterday afternoon PM Netanyahu arrived for the state funeral of Sen. Lindsey Graham, as well as to conduct meetings regarding the war in Iran. This morning, the proceedings for Sen. Graham began at the Capitol, and various politicians and dignitaries are expected to make an appearance throughout the day. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Debate is growing regarding the general status of the war in the Middle East. Iranian targeting has remained fairly tepid after last week's strikes, although the Houthis have continued to deal damage to Saudi infrastructure over the past few days. For the United States, every indicator lined up last week to suggest weekend strikes were going to take place, but leaks from the White House and Pentagon have suggested that the strikes were called off for now. As to why, the rumors diverge sharply and there's no way to get a solid bead on what the actual plan is at the moment. The situation has reached another point (much like has happened before) where the US can just as equally go all-in on another round of strikes, or the US could do nothing. Nevertheless, if strikes are planned, timing wise it's almost certain to take place after Netanyahu returns home from his visit to the US. President Trump himself confirmed one of the main reasons for PM Netanyahu visiting Washington, is to provide an in-person briefing on the infamous Pickaxe Mountain complex at the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran. In various statements since this leaked, President Trump pushed back on the significance of this underground complex (and thus indicating less support for conducting another Midnight Hammer-style operation), but as always this can go either way. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 27, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WEEKEND SHOOTING REPORTED AT SEATTLE FESTIVAL. VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK REPORTED IN BERLIN. STABBING ATTACK REPORTED IN PARIS. IRANIAN TARGETING CONTINUES TO STRIKE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST, U.S. HAS NOT RESPONDED YET.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: After the intense Iranian targeting of American positions Friday evening, sporadic Iranian drone strikes have been reported throughout the region. Other than targeting American positions, Iranian drone attacks have also been observed striking Kurdish militia encampments in northeastern Iraq. On the American side, CENTCOM has not disclosed any strikes within Iran for several days. Red Sea/HOA: Nearly the entire Jazan Refinery in Saudi Arabia remains on fire following the Houthi targeting on Saturday. As of last night, fire detection satellites indicated that most of the facility has been totally destroyed and satellite imagery from yesterday indicates a very large fire at this facility is still burning and the smoke plume stretches over 50 miles to the south. Europe: This morning Iran issued a public condemnation of the Ukrainian targeting of a Russian vessel. Over the weekend a Ukrainian drone struck a Russian vessel, which resulted in the death of one crew member. This crew member happened to be an Iranian citizen, which prompted Foreign Minister Araghchi to issue a statement of outrage. Analyst Comment: It is very unlikely that the Ukrainians would have known that one random crewmember onboard a vessel was technically Iranian, but intentional or not, this incident is another step towards linking the war in Europe with the conflict in the Middle East. Germany: On Sunday, a vehicle ramming attack was reported at the Pride festival in Berlin. One assailant ramming his vehicle into a crowd in the vicinity of the Tiergarden west of the Brandenburg Gate, killing one person and wounding 29 others. After the ramming, the suspect exited the vehicle and reportedly stabbed several people with a machete, before fleeing the scene. This prompted a nationwide manhunt for the assailant that was carried out Sunday afternoon. By Sunday evening, the suspect had been located in a residential area of Spandau. Once located, the suspect allegedly tried to stab the arresting officers, which resulted in the suspect being shot and killed. The suspect was identified as Abdul Ballout, who had reportedly just been released from a juvenile detention facility. France: This morning a stabbing attack was reported in Paris, near Porte de Clichy. One assailant stabbed 3x women on the street, before being restrained by bystanders and an off-duty police officer. While being held down by responding citizens, the attacker claimed that the attack was Islamic in nature, prompting the government to classify this incident as a terror attack. -HomeFront- Washington: Yesterday a shooting was reported at the Bite of Seattle food festival at the Seattle Center. Multiple black/Middle Eastern males began shooting at each other inside a crowd at the event, which resulted in 3x people killed, and 4x others wounded. Analyst Comment: This incident was initially reported as a mass shooting, however the multiple shooters were not targeting the crowd, as this was almost certainly a gang/cultural shooting. As a result of the cultural implications, Seattle Police have not released the name of the suspect(s) they have in custody, nor have they released the photo of the suspect which remains at large. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Despite the substantial Iranian targeting over the past few days, the American response has so far been very minimal and no meaningful strikes have been conducted since Friday night within Iran. This is probably a reflection of the calm before the storm, as the United States continues to stage assets for a large scale attack sometime soon. Over the weekend, many phone calls were likely made which may have delayed whatever American targeting was planned to take place, as several Iranian/Houthi targeting efforts appear to have been more substantial than expected. The Houthi strike on the Jazan Refinery was very clearly an extremely devastating strike from the Houthis, which probably caused the Saudis pause regarding how much hurt the Houthis can bring to the table. Similarly, the heavy targeting of Erbil (and Patriot battery at this base) has likely resulted in a degradation of air defenses in this sector. How bad the damage is, is anyone's guess, but based on the scorch marks observed from space last week, it is hard to imagine this air defense site remaining operational. The Iranians have also claimed to have struck half a dozen other air defense sites throughout the region, but these can't be verified until better satellite imagery is available. Which might take time due to the deliberate censorship of imagery as mandated by the U.S. government. Over the past few weeks, anecdotal evidence from locals on the ground throughout the region has increasingly indicated fewer and fewer successful interceptions of Iranian munitions. These reports are very hard to quantify as most of the time it's a shepherd looking up and visually seeing the interceptors miss the Iranian missile, or no interceptors being launched in the first place. Obviously, these reports are about as unconfirmed as it can get, but the smoking craters that are visible on satellite imagery add a lot of credence to the general theory that, for whatever reason, interceptions are not as effective as advertised. However, as it stands the U.S. will probably respond in some way, not just because of the scale of the Iranian missile strikes, but also the fact that this targeting (and the collapse of the ceasefire) has resulted in the Strait of Hormuz remaining fully closed. What that response will be or when it will be carried out, only time will tell. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 20, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CENTCOM CONFIRMS FOUR AMERICAN CASUALTIES FOLLOWING IRANIAN STRIKES IN MIDDLE EAST. ARSON ATTACK REPORTED AT FEDERAL BUILDING IN NYC.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Jordan: Over the weekend CENTCOM confirmed the deaths of three US service members, who were killed as a result of the strikes on a barracks building at Muwaffaq al Salti Airbase. Two of the casualties have been identified as 1LT Tyler James Feehan, and Private Isabella Gonzales. The third casualty officially remains classified as Missing in Action as the remains will require DNA analysis to confirm identity, and has not yet been officially identified. A fourth casualty was also reported somewhere in Iraq, which was the result of an Iranian drone strike. Middle East: Following Iranian targeting of the al-Subiya Power Station, Kuwait has begun to rely on portable substations and generators to provide electricity while repairs are made. The scale of the power outages is not known, but Iranian forces have struck several logistical hubs and electrical power plants over the past few days. In Bahrain, Iranian targeting has remained heavy over the weekend, with several ballistic missile strikes reported at American installations around the country. Strait of Hormuz: Several more merchant vessels were struck over the past few days, most of which were tankers attempting to use the southern Omani route instead of the Iranian route. At least one of these vessels resulted in the crew abandoning ship before being rescued. Iran: After these collective strikes over the weekend, American targeting efforts intensified with the latest bombing campaign focusing on the targeting of bridges and civilian roadway tunnels around Bandar Abbas. Many of the roads that lead to the port city are now cut off, with only a few major roadways allowing access to the city. Several bridges have also already been repaired, and the status of others remains unclear until better satellite imagery is available. -HomeFront- New York: This morning an arson attack was reported at the Federal building in downtown Manhattan. One assailant approached the building with a bucket of gasoline, dumping the bucket at the northeast side of the structure. The suspect immediately ignited the pool of gas, which also contained a mix of commercial grade fireworks. The suspect was immediately detained by the plethora of police already on scene, as the accelerant burned on the sidewalk. Analyst Comment: No motive has yet been conveyed regarding this attack, however some of the paraphernalia scattered throughout the scene of the attack appears to be political in nature, opposing ICE. Washington D.C. - This morning, the latest numbers for Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels were released indicating that over the past week, the US has drained the SPR by an additional 5.1 million barrels, to it's lowest level since the Tanker War in 1983. Analyst Comment: Many might have assumed that the US might have re-stocked the SPR during the two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, however very little oil actually made it out of the region during that time, which amounted to only a tiny fraction of US daily usage. Since the war began five months ago, only a very small percentage of oil has exited the region, and the US has been draining the SPR at breakneck pace in order to keep the country going. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Concerning the American casualties sustained over the weekend, it is extremely important to note that the deaths of 1LT Feehan and PVT Gonzales are officially classified under Operation INHERENT RESOLVE (OIR)...not under Operation EPIC FURY (OEFU). Inherent Resolve is the long-standing mission to combat ISIS in Syria, and not in any way linked to the current war in Iran. As a result, the true number of casualties sustained warrants further investigation. This classification could have been an administrative error, but this would also be a way of camouflaging casualty figures. The Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) is the main database for logging all American casualties, which are defined by military operation. In this case, these deaths are not cataloged under either operation yet, adding to the more broad (but also growing) concerns that the database has been concealing the true number of casualties, specifically the numbers of personnel wounded. In fact, while admonishing these concerns as "baseless and malicious accusations" Assistant Secretary of War Sean Parnell directly contradicted the numbers his own department was producing. He stated in an interview with CBS News that roughly 100 personnel had been wounded throughout the war over the past month....while his own database states that a grand total of zero personnel had been wounded for the month of July, and three in June. If this testimony is accurate, this confirms beyond all doubt that the Pentagon is lying about the number of troops wounded during this campaign. Considering that the Pentagon has disclosed a total of 413x soldiers wounded during this entire campaign, ~100x WIA being reported within a month (which also included a two-week ceasefire) is alarming to say the least. The cause of the fatalities reported over the weekend is also important to note as these deaths were very likely preventable. In the days leading up to the ballistic missile striking the housing at this base, the Iranians successfully struck the Patriot battery in Erbil, Iraq. This missile defense site would have been one of the sites providing protection for missiles launched into Jordan. With this battery offline or at least degraded in some way, it is possible that a clear air corridor existed that allowed Iranian ballistic missiles to fly unchallenged through a gap in air defense coverage. If the Erbil strike also damaged the radar array, it is also very possible that the warning time for an incoming ballistic missile would have been reduced, so any defenses at the target base would have been less effective. Obviously, the true scale of the damage to this air defense site would be classified, so in the public eye we have to guess as to how bad it was based on blurry satellite imagery. However the military commanders who knew the systems and did NOT have to guess, were also the same commanders who had the authority to either issue warnings or orders to disperse from the unprotected Containerized Housing Units (CHUs) that were struck by Iran. The failure of command to disperse their soldiers is what led to these fatalities. The very minute that the Patriot battery was struck in Erbil was a major clue that the Iranians were conducting shaping fires of their own...they were striking the air defense sites so as to open up a gap in air defense coverage, and reach out to American positions with their larger ballistic missiles. Though it is usually in poor taste to reflect on failures in the immediate aftermath of the death of troops, in the interest of expediency sometimes uncomfortable conversations must be had in order to prevent further loss of life. If a gap in air defense coverage is what allowed this strike to happen, it is almost certain that this gap still exists and that the danger to American service members is still not mitigated. For ALL American troops in the Middle East, this observation must be noted: If the Iranians are striking air defense sites, the next assumption must be that the Iranians are planning to strike something that would have been protected by that site. In retrospect this is common sense, but even at this very moment, the continued strikes on American positions (and the nearly total lack of fortification efforts at these bases, even to this day) continues to indicate that the Iranian targeting efforts are not being taken seriously by senior American decision makers. Five months into this war, CENTCOM leadership has still not figured out that the Iranians can strike their bases at will, and as demonstrated by the strikes in Kuwait and Jordan, the US is still not digging in, and also not dispersing enough to avoid troops getting killed. No underground fortification efforts have been undertaken at any base in the Middle East, and satellite imagery indicates that no substantial fortifications have been undertaken either. Granting as much leeway to the Pentagon's decision making process as possible, it is possible that no hardening of defenses would have mattered considering the missiles Iran is launching. Drone defense is one thing, but it would take years to build a bunker that would withstand the impact of an Iranian Fattah or Ghadr missile. Nevertheless, when it comes to defending American positions, doing something is better than doing nothing, and concrete does not take half a year to dry. Even if large-scale construction projects are off the menu, ALL military publications, textbooks, and training scenarios dictate and demand what has been obvious since World War One...Dispersion is the name of the game. This is what kept casualties to a minimum in Bahrain, but different theater commanders have different personal initiatives. Some are more proactive with their defense, and others have done nothing at all, besides making sure that all of the vehicles in the motorpool are lined up neatly. Where this goes from here is anyone's guess, but unless radical and immediate changes are made, the United States will continue to suffer casualties. And as long as the bombing continues which is motivating Iran to target our bases, this indirectly highlights the deficiencies with American air defense technologies, not just for this war, but for the wars to come. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 17, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GULF WAR ESCALATES AS INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING BEGINS. SIGNIFICANT IRANIAN RETALIATION REPORTED ON AMERICAN INSTALLATIONS. IRANIAN TARGETING OF MERCHANT SHIPPING REMAINS CONSTANT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The war escalated again overnight, with the United States beginning the series of strikes on bridges and infrastructure targets intended to soften up areas near the coast of Iran. Several bridges were struck in the vicinity of Bandar Abbas, along with the usual nightly strikes on more military targets. On the Iranian side, the targeting of American installations has been substantial over the past few days. In Iraq, Iranian forces successfully struck the Patriot battery in Erbil, with satellite imagery indicating burn scars in the vicinity of where one launcher was previously located. In the UAE, a series of warehouses and probable weapons storage facilities were destroyed at the Zayed Military City. In Kuwait, one of the HIMARS launcher sites on the Iraqi border was targeted, in addition to a desalination plant providing the fresh water supply for Kuwait City. Persian Gulf: The war on the seas continued with many different strikes and incidents being reported around the region. At the northern end of the Gulf, the UKMTO reported an unidentified incident involving a merchant vessel, which was carried out by unknown parties and in the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea, several targeting efforts of merchant vessels was reported throughout the day. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Last night's targeting in Iran possibly offers up a clue as to what the military objective of this specific operation might be. The bridges that were struck by the United States are not specifically military targets, however they did offer high-speed avenues of approach to the coastline. If the IRGC ground force needed to reinforce specifically the area of the coastline to the west of Bandar Abbas, north of Qeshm Island, these would be the bridges they would need to use. The bridges that were taken out also would be a way of isolating Bandar Abbas in terms of trade. In addition to the naval base being a military target, this is also a major civilian port city that handles the import of a lot of cargo for the nation (some reports claim up to 80% of Iran's imports arrive at this port). Under normal circumstances, taking out bridges is a tricky subject in the world of military targeting; if the bridge is predominantly used for military purposes, it's usually a valid target, but if it's predominantly a civilian bridge it's not normally legal to target. This categorization gets really blurry really quickly, but what is very clear is that targeting infrastructure like this isolates the military objective into only a few possibilities. Either the United States is attempting to go scorched-earth on civilian infrastructure so as to make life as miserable as possible and thus attempt to turn the populace against the government...or this is pre-shaping fires for other operations that might take place in the vicinity of the coastline. Neither option makes a whole lot of tactical sense, but making sense has not been a prerequisite for any military objective sought so far during this conflict, so the continued targeting over the next few days will probably shed some light on what the objective is with this latest campaign. As of this afternoon, dozens of refueling tankers are once again making their way into the Middle East from Europe and beyond, so the war is likely to continue escalating for foreseeable future. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

Hey everyone, kind of an odd one today. I had a spur of the moment thought this morning and decided that what I was going to say in tomorrow's Intel Update, would be best served as a dedicated podcast/video. I did not want to bog down the more informational content with a full-blown rant segment, so I recorded this separately. Link below!

//The Wire//1800Z July 16, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UKRAINIAN ATTACKS CONTINUE ON RUSSIAN SHIPPING IN BLACK SEA, RUSSIA RETALIATES BY STRIKING UKRAINIAN SHIPPING. WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN CANADA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: The war in Ukraine has continued to expand, with attacks on Russian merchant vessels remaining constant in the Black Sea. Russia has likewise retaliated by striking Ukrainian vessels also located within the Black Sea, as well as several port cities in southwestern Ukraine. Middle East: The war continues as before, with regular strikes taking place in the coastal regions which have been host to targeting for several days. Last night the US struck the port of Bandar Abbas again, and the Iranians have responded with attacks on Kuwait, which continued sporadically overnight. Analyst Comment: One aspect of the war that has not escalated for now, has been the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. After the initial mutual strikes two days ago, the Saudi's have chosen to back off of this line of effort, probably because they realized how bad of an idea it is to start a fight with the Houthis right now. That Saudi East-West Pipeline is the main asset that is keeping Saudi Arabia in the global oil market right now, and the Houthis can very easily threaten their main revenue source. Canada: Over the past few days, wildfires have continued to spread throughout the nation. As of this morning, at total of 859x wildfires are actively burning nationwide in Canada, most of which are clustered in Ontario, Qeubec, and the Northwest Territories. Of these active fires, 63x are out of control with zero percent containment. Evacuations of thousands of rural and tribal areas have been ordered over thousands of square miles, and air quality alerts have been issued for much of the American northeast and mid-Atlantic due to the smoke. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Though not exactly grabbing front page headlines, the war in Ukraine has continued to expand and become increasingly more serious during this year's summer offensive. Numbers are hard to independently verify, but the Ukrainians claim a total of 136x Russian vessels have been struck so far during this Black Sea targeting campaign since it began last week. This number seems a little high, but what is undeniable is that the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov have become a new front during this war...for both sides, as demonstrated by the Russians now targeting Ukrainian ships. Equally important is the impact this is having on the broader Russian oil market. Previous strikes on petroleum refineries resulted in fuel shortages throughout Russia, which have varied by severity and location. Striking tankers in the Black Sea really only impacts the petroleum export market, and the long-term impacts of this will be interesting to follow. Like it or not, the concept of globalization has functioned as designed, and most nations are linked to each other in ways that are not readily apparent at first. Russia mostly exports oil to India and China, and their exports have remained high during the Persian Gulf crisis. So Ukraine, in striking the oil intended for China, is directly playing a hand in the Gulf War...a conflict thousands of miles away. How this will manifest over the next few weeks will be important. Gas prices in the US have been MUCH cheaper than they should be, due to a long list of factors, one of which has been the Chinese dipping into their own reserves to sharply reduce their demand. Ukraine strikes ships intended for China, and China now has to either dip into their reserves more...or buy more oil from the Middle East, and demand goes up in an already restricted supply chain. The Gulf War is still hot to some degree, and the miniscule flow of oil that had begun to trickle out of the Gulf during the ceasefire has once again slowed to a drip...and now that Ukraine is striking Russian oil intended for China, an already tight oil market is probably going to be squeezed even harder. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 2, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING INCIDENT REPORTED IN THAILAND. POTENTIAL TERROR ATTACK THWARTED IN NORTH CAROLINA. GOVERNOR WALZ PARDONS LAOTIAN MIGRANT CONVICTED OF ABUSE, COMPLICATING DEPORTATION. US NAVY HELICOPTER CRASHES IN ARABIAN SEA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Thailand: This morning a vehicle ramming incident was reported in the remote province of Mukdahan, after one individual rammed a vehicle into a group of Buddhist monks who had just departed on a pilgrimage walk on a remote road. A total of 9x monks were killed during the incident, and an unknown number of others wounded. Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has not been identified, but has been noted as being an 11-year-old child. As a result it's not clear as to if this is genuinely a deliberate action or not. Initially, eyewitness statements claimed it was a deliberate attack, but other eyewitnesses state that the boy was driving too fast and lost control of the vehicle. More generally, attacks on Buddhists on pilgrimage are comparatively rare, but there has been an ongoing conflict to the south of the incident site which has been referred to as the Malay-Muslim Insurgency, which has taken the form of guerilla warfare carried out between factions of Buddhists and Muslims. In Thailand, something as simple as an unrelated child's mistake (though horribly tragic) can always stir up tensions in an already tense region, so this might be something to be aware of for later on. Middle East: Yesterday afternoon the Pentagon announced an aviation incident which involved an MH-60 Sea Hawk helicopter from the USS *GEORGE H.W. BUSH* CSG making an emergency landing feet-wet in the Arabian Sea. Three of the four crew members of the aircraft were rescued immediately after the crash, however the fourth crewmember remains missing. Analyst Comment: CENTCOM has not confirmed the cause of the incident, however the crash is not believed to be the result of combat damage. The Iranians have not claimed to have targeted a helicopter, nor have there been any engagements over the past 24 hours in the region. -HomeFront- Minnesota: Gov. Tim Walz pardoned Tou Lue Vang, a Laotian man who had been convicted of crimes against children years ago. Vang had been engaging in the traditional Laotian practice of taking an unwilling child bride, and was subsequently arrested and given a deportation order back in 2006. He took a plea deal which allowed him avoid prison completely, and for twenty years has been fighting his deportation case. Yesterday, Gov. Walz approved his pardon request roughly a week before his schedule deportation. Analyst Comment: It is unclear as to why a state pardon would have any bearing whatsoever with federal immigration law, but the statements made by Acting DHS Assistant Secretary Lauren Bis suggest that the DHS is not keen to press the issue at the federal level. The DHS press release on this case expressed outrage, but no action to actually continue following through on the deportation. North Carolina: Following the release of court documents yesterday, details have come to light pertaining to a probable attempted terror attack that took place on Sunday in High Point. On Sunday, a member of the security team spotted a suspicious individual approaching Wesley Memorial Methodist Church during the morning services. One suspect arrived in the church parking lot wearing body armor and camouflaged clothing, prompting the attention of a member of the church security staff. Upon approaching the individual, the security guard questioned the suspect, who stated that he was a police officer. As the security team member was an off-duty police officer himself, he instantly knew that the man was lying, and immediately took the man into custody. After more authorities arrived on scene, a search of the suspect's vehicle revealed two flamethrowers, two crossbows, a few hundred rounds of ammunition (unknown type), as well as a small collection of narcotics. The suspect has been identified as William S. Milliken III, a native of Thomasville. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Regarding the potential church terrorism incident, no motive or explanation for the suspicious incident was noted, however incidents like this are extremely common in the world of counterterrorism. Individuals determined to carry out acts of terrorism are frequently known to conduct "dry runs" before the actual attack, so as to both work out the final logistics of their plan, but also to get up the gumption to follow through with the attack. It is not clear as to if this individual had any connection to the church, or had visited the church beforehand. However, arriving exactly during services on Sunday in a full tactical loadout, as primitive as it was, is not something that normally indicates a dry run. Though it is speculation, it's possible that the suspect did not know that the church had security on site, or that the one responder would have been as on-the-ball as he was. Concerning motive, nothing has been disclosed. A would-be assailant who shows up to a terrorist attack with 500x rounds of ammunition but no firearm is an interesting data point, and the choice of crossbows and flamethrowers as an attack vector indicates that a proper firearm probably could not be procured. More details may come to light as this case progresses, but even based on the initial details, this is another reminder for religious institutions to remain vigilant and report any suspicious observations to authorities. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! Once more another week blazes by, and the conflagrations around the world continue to simmer. From the Fiery-But-Mostly-Irish protests in Northern Ireland, to a bit of mathematical impossibilities in the Middle East, the summertime keeps heating up all around. Link:

//The Wire//2300Z June 5, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UKRAINIAN DRONE BOATS FOUND IN ROMANIAN PORT NEAR OIL TERMINAL, ONE DETONATION REPORTED. KARMELO ANTHONY TRIAL BEGINS IN TEXAS. SOCIAL TENSIONS CONTINUE IN UNITED KINGDOM.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The conflict has continued to expand, with Iranian drone attacks taking place at Oman's oil terminals in Mina Al Fahal. Omani authorities suspended oil export operations this morning, before claiming that operations had returned to normal a few hours later. United Kingdom: Societal tensions continue as old criminal cases reach a conclusion this week. Yesterday, a group of migrants were sentenced for crimes committed during an attempted revenge killing that took place in Stoke-on-Trent back in 2021. Five years ago, this mob of migrants broke into a home and set a woman on fire in front of her child, during a cultural murder attempt that stemmed from one of them stabbing the other, triggering an honor-killing retaliation attempt. Several people were also stabbed during this attack, as a fight between rival migrant factions broke out in the street during the incident. Five of these men were recently found guilty of this attack, and earlier this week two of the attackers, Naveed Hussain and Bilal Ahmed, were sentenced to what ended up being time-served, a small fine, and community service. In Southampton, significant law enforcement operations are underway to identify rioters which pushed garbage cans toward police during the recent Southampton unrest resulting from the Nowak murder trial. So far three demonstrators have been arrested and charged, and continuing the recent trend, one individual who was arrested on Thursday has already been tried, convicted, and sentenced. This individual was sentenced to 3-5 years prison time for throwing a traffic cone in the general direction of the police, which never made contact with them. Analyst Comment: These contrasting incidents are just two of a dozen that have stoked tensions throughout the British Isles this week. As a result, these events have been piling on after the Nowak murder trial elevated public anger to new heights, and last week a different case involved a pair of migrants being acquitted, even though they broke a policewoman's nose during a street fight with officers at Manchester airport two years ago. Romania: This morning at least one (possibly up to four) Ukrainian naval drones were discovered floating in the port of Constanța. One Sea-Baby Mark II (Avdiivka) type Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) was discovered floating inside the port by workers at one of the oil terminals. Before Romanian EOD teams could respond to the scene and tow the boat to a safer location, the explosive boat self-detonated, catching locals off guard who were inside the blast zone. After this explosion, a search was conducted for other drone boats in the general area, and some reports claim that three more Ukrainian USVs were found, though the exact geolocation of these vessels has not been disclosed. -HomeFront- Texas: The Karmelo Anthony murder trial has begun in Collin County, with demonstrations and protests already set up outside the courthouse. The jury in this case has not been sequestered, and they are being sent to their own homes every night without any security or protection measures despite the activists threatening to kill people outside the courthouse. Analyst Comment: This is going to be a hot trial, with a high potential for riots no matter the outcome. Like it or not, this is already a racial thing, and the situation at the courthouse has been rather spicy even though the trial has just begun. So far, the numbers of activists and militant groups on site at the courthouse remains comparatively low; only a maximum of few dozen people have been observed, with most of the persistent protests being hosted by a handful of people who can afford to attend a protest during a workday. Nevertheless, the more hostile crowds are already on site, and the potential for riots and violence is already high, with larger crowds expected to gather over the weekend. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Based on the geolocation alone, there is nearly zero chance that the drones found in Romania were merely off-course munitions, which washed ashore after losing contact or becoming damaged. The main explosive boat that was discovered, was found deep inside the port (past multiple breakwaters) nestled directly adjacent to a major oil terminal where oil tankers normally are berthed to onload petroleum. More broadly, drone boats washing ashore (either from some kind of mechanical failure, or due to combat damage) is not exactly a rare sight along the Black Sea coast as these things happen sometimes in war. However in this case, it would be extraordinarily unlikely for this vessel to end up where it did, just based on the drifting of the tides. The addition of three other drones, all with independent guidance systems and control measures, also being found in the same area decreases the chance that this was an accident. The drones found outside the port can be explained away easily, but the one found deep inside the port right next to a highly flammable oil terminal of all things, is harder to justify. As a result, this was almost certainly a deliberate action, though the motive for such is questionable. Romania and Ukraine are on the same side during this conflict, and it would make no sense to target Romanian oil, because Ukraine itself is one of Romania's biggest clients. It's possible that this attack is a false-flag incident conducted by Russia, but that's unlikely at the moment because Russia has not had much success in mimicking Ukraine's drone boats, and if this was the Russians it would be an uncharacteristically well-detailed deception operation. On the other hand, it's also possible that this was a false-flag attack conducted by Ukraine, using their own drones (which were planned to detonate before being discovered), but due to either jamming or some other mistake, did not explode before the sun rose this morning and the drones were discovered. Regardless of what the investigation eventually discovers, it is almost certain that these drone boats were genuinely Ukrainian, and did not end up inside the harbor by accident. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//1800Z March 26, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UKRAINE TARGETS RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR ST. PETERSBURG. QATAR SEEKS DEAL WITH IRAN TO CEASE IRANIAN ATTACKS ON QATARI OIL REFINERIES.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The conflict continues for the main belligerents, while several GCC states seek a more neutral approach. The nation of Qatar has reportedly struck a deal with the Iranians to settle the dispute between their nations, and as a result Iranian strikes within Qatar have shifted to solely targeting American equipment and installations instead of Qatari oil infrastructure. In Kuwait, operations at the airport remain degraded as the fuel tanks that were struck yesterday continued burning overnight. Iranian strikes on Israeli infrastructure have continued, with multiple strikes being reported in Tel Aviv yesterday evening. Lebanon: Israeli forces continued their northern push along an axis of advance from the south, and from the east. Over the past three days, Israeli targeting efforts have concentrated fire on various targets south of the Litani, in preparation for the subsequent ground movements. On Tuesday, the Israeli Defense Minister openly stated the goal of invading Lebanon is to seize all of the terrain south of the Litani River. This plan has been supported by the destruction of bridges across the Litani River, which has been intensifying over the past few days. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As the war rages in the Middle East, the conflict in Europe has seen a resurgence of offensive actions over the past few days. Last night, the M/T *ALTURA* was struck by a drone (likely Ukrainian) in the Black Sea shortly after departing Russia with a cargo of oil. This is the second such strike in recent weeks, which also follows multiple substantial strikes on Russian oil infrastructure over the past few days, which have substantially degraded Russia's oil export capability in the north. The oil export terminal in Ust-Luga was struck two days ago, resulting in substantial damage to Russia's main oil terminal on the Baltic Sea. Similarly, the oil terminal in Primorsk was also hit by Ukrainian drones, with both facilities remaining on fire as of this morning. Both of these attacks are significant as they are likely a strategic attempt to reduce the capabilities for Russia to capitalize on the growing energy crisis in the Middle East, linking the two conflicts at the strategic level to some degree. Growing reports are also emerging that suggest Russia may be supplying the Iranians with drones, or the components to make them. At the moment, this is just rumor that's impossible to confirm with any reliability, but it would make a lot of sense for Russia to want to turn the screws to the United States after it's become clear that it's just as hard for us to extricate ourselves from our own "special military operation" as it has been for Russia. Focusing on the more tangible aspects of the war, the targeting efforts in the Baltic are also a demonstration of why it is a very wise move to remained generally informed on wars that are being fought on the other side of the world...in the age of the drone a war being fought in Persia can threaten Scandinavia due to the nature of combatants everywhere seeking to capitalize on a conflict in a faraway land. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z March 20, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS CHINA BEGINS MAKING DIPLOMATIC MOVES. UNITED STATES DEPLOYS SECOND MARINE EXPEDITIONARY UNIT TO CENTCOM.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Iranian forces successfully engaged an American F-35 aircraft during a strike mission within Iran. IRGC officials initially released footage of a missile impacting an F-35, which most people assumed was probably fake, initially. However CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins stated that one F-35 did make an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia, but declined to directly confirm what caused the incident. Analyst Comment: Due to the all evidence available to the public, it is almost certain that the Anti-Aircraft engagement did happen, and that the aircraft survived the encounter enough to limp back across the Gulf to friendly lines. This is also indicated by the Iranians themselves via the classic "trim the clip and replay it a million times so that the viewer can't see the aircraft managed to survive" tactic which was heavily used for this short video clip. More strategically, this is an indicator that the United States is not operating under the state of "uncontested airspace" that was advertised at the start of the war. Almost three weeks into the conflict the airspace is still very much contested, and the Iranians have some level of effective air defense that is able to actually successfully target the F-35 platform. -HomeFront- California: Yesterday the USS *BOXER* (LHD-4) departed port San Diego ahead of schedule for a deployment to the Middle East. The 11th MEU is embarked on this vessel, and will be the second MEU dedicated to CENTCOM, supplementing the USS *TRIPOLI* which will be arriving in theater soon. Analyst Comment: This is an indication and warning that a Ground Combat Element to the current war in Iran is actively being considered and planned for. At this moment it's too soon to tell if this is a serious endeavor, but it would be wise to consider that President Trump does not have a history of bluffing on military matters. So far, from Midnight Hammer to Venezuela, every threat of military use has come to fruition eventually. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As the war rages in the Middle East, China and other nations throughout Asia have been making moves of their own. On Wednesday, Chinese officials offered to provide LNG to Taiwan if they were to consider coming under Beijing's rule. Taiwan has obviously rejected the offer, stating that they have alternative means of maintaining energy security (i.e. the United States). While China knew this offer would have been rejected, it's in line with China's policy of moving goalposts incredibly slowly over time. All of this is helpful to view in the context of this year's Annual Threat Assessment provided by the Director of National Intelligence. While focus has been on the DNI for other reasons lately, this yearly report came out a few days ago, and revealed a surprising change of mentality for China. The official stance of the DNI is that China will not attempt to militarily conquer Taiwan, and will instead attempt a more soft approach, bringing Taiwan under the fold via economic means. This puts on full display the differences of opinion within the IC on the Taiwan issue, which have been growing over the years; it has become a common theory that China would prefer to take Taiwan indirectly rather than fighting for it, due to the costliness of invading such a nation as Taiwan. Within the Intelligence Community, official assessments are often centered around who's the loudest, and not necessarily who's right. Opinions on China have largely been a knife-fight within the IC for a while now, and the DNI report might reflect a change of heart on the Taiwan issue. For years, the loudest voices have been that China was planning a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, which is still a very solid theory. The DNI's report is surprising for very nuanced reasons: This report acknowledges that there is another possible theory, and that the alternative (the peaceful economic takeover) is actually most likely. Either way, the war in the Middle East has complicated the situation, and however that conflict works out will determine how much political influence the Chinese have in their quest to expand their regional dominance. China's strategy with Taiwan is essentially "do nothing, win" and now that another hot shooting war is underway in the Middle East, the Chinese are very unlikely to interrupt their enemy when they are making a mistake. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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