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Quantoshi.xyz
drgo@nostrplebs.com
npub1fa8c...thnd
Bitcoin OG since 2010, former laptop solo miner - which makes me (amongst) the first obsolete Bitcoin miner(s), blockstream satellite node runner, #2A rights user, radiologist
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drgo 22 hours ago
If you think about your annual salary in bitcoin, you’ll have a hard time retiring…work pays too well.
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drgo 5 days ago
I know it’s popular to Pooh-pooh @npub15wcv...qy0q's stock-to-flow model, but people do so for the wrong reasons and they are by and large too early. Here is the best fit s2f and shaded range of the 1st through 99th percentile of constant sigma power law. S2F fits in this band from 2012 through the end of 2028. The fact that these two models must massively diverge eventually was obvious to everyone who was really part of the conversation, including @npub15wcv...qy0q (he even very frequently reminded people that all models are wrong but that some were useful). I would also add that some models are no longer useful… People argued against S2F and in favor of power law over a time frame where the two models didn’t really differ. Well, we are starting to see the models differ very meaningfully and this will only be worse at the end of the next half decade. Now, was S2F useful? Yes. Useful for everything? No. Example: if you assumed model would hold in 2080 and assumed price would be $22 quintillion as model suggests and calculated a CAGR of 60% from 2020-2080 and decided to borrow money at 40%, this model would prove not useful. image
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drgo 1 week ago
I would not pay more than $550,000 for a bitcoin today. I also wouldn’t pay more than $125,000, but for different reasons.