My latest on #AMD

Powering AMD’s Growth in 2025: Key Technology Drivers Behind Its AI and Data Center Surge – Investment Gems

AMD: What’s Actually Driving Its AI and Data Center Growth There’s been a lot of noise around AMD vs. Nvidia, but underneath that is a clear trend: AMD is quietly building a real end-to-end stack for AI infrastructure. The execution is finally syncing across hardware, software, and systems. Here are the key technical drivers — prioritized by near-term revenue impact: → MI350 (CDNA 4) GPUs Launching mid-2025, 35× performance leap vs. MI300X. Plug-and-play compatible with current systems. Already in deployment w/ Oracle. This is AMD’s most credible shot at real inference market share. → EPYC Turin (Zen 5) CPUs Live and scaling. 150+ server platforms. 30+ new cloud instances from AWS, Google, Oracle. Contributed to 57% YoY data center revenue growth in Q1. This is not a future story — it’s booked compute today. → MI300X + MI325X Deployed and earning. Used in live LLM inference (e.g. LLaMA 405B). MI325X improves memory and smooths path to MI350. Transitional, but real. → Ryzen AI Series (Client AI PCs) +50% QoQ notebook sell-through. +80% YoY commercial designs. Supported by top OEMs. May not be a long-term moat, but drives ASPs now. → ROCm Stack Bi-weekly updates. 2M+ Hugging Face models supported. Day-0 support for LLaMA 4, Gemma, DeepSeek. No longer an adoption blocker. → ZT Systems Acquisition Now AMD can sell rack-level, fully integrated systems (CPUs + GPUs + networking). Competing with Nvidia DGX on infrastructure, not just chips. Why It Matters AMD isn’t trying to be Nvidia — it’s building a full-stack alternative for a world that wants optionality. They still have to execute cleanly — MI350 rollout is critical. But this isn’t a “wait and hope” story anymore. The pieces are live.

1/ AMD isn’t Nvidia. It doesn’t need to be. What matters: they’re finally building a full-stack AI/data center offering that’s real — not theoretical. Execution is lining up. Revenue is following. A few key reasons why:

Roku Q1 2025: Mispriced or Misunderstood? Roku posted +109% EBITDA growth and +15.8% revenue in Q1 — beating most media and ad tech peers. Yet it still trades at <2x P/S. Here's why this stock might be the most undervalued platform in CTV. #Roku #AdTech #Earnings #CTV #TTD

Roku Q1 2025 Earnings: Growth Slows, But Monetization and Margins Improve Takeaways from the Roku’s 1Q25 earnings release Source: Author’s summary Yes, Roku’s revenue and EBITDA growth slowed in Q1 2025 — and it’s not just a seasonal blip. Revenue rose 15.8% year-over-year, down from 22.0% in Q4. EBITDA growth also decelerated, landing at 36.9% compared to 62.5% the previous quarter. The slowdown is real, and it’s raising legitimate questions about how well Roku’s monetization strategy is holding up now that scale isn’t the main constraint anymore. So what does this actually tell us? For starters, engagement still isn’t translating cleanly into revenue. In Q4, Total Reach Campaign (TRC) usage was up 82%, but that surge hasn’t been mirrored in top-line growth — a gap that continued into Q1. That suggests ad yield and efficiency aren’t fully dialed in yet. Roku may be brushing up against short-term ceilings in either ad load or CPMs. It also hints that platform leverage — turning user growth into consistent profitability — may take longer to materialize than investors hoped. Recalibrating Thesis for Roku But it’s important to separate signal from noise. This doesn’t necessarily mean the model is broken. Margins are still expanding, just at a slower pace. It also doesn’t mean Roku can’t reaccelerate. The upcoming quarters, with tailwinds like the Olympics and back-to-school ad cycles, could provide a better environment. And from a valuation perspective, the stock doesn’t look overhyped — trading at around 2x sales with positive free cash flow, it’s no longer priced like a high-flyer. The real shift here is in how Roku should be framed. It’s moving out of “growth stock” territory and into “compounder candidate” territory. The key question now is whether Roku can grow EBITDA and free cash flow by 20–30% annually, even if revenue growth stays in the 12–15% range. If the answer is yes, then the stock remains undervalued — but you’re betting on margin expansion and operating leverage, not explosive revenue gains. Looking ahead, there are a few markers to watch. The bull case strengthens if EBITDA margins continue climbing toward (or past) 10%, ARPU keeps growing in the double digits, and Roku begins closing the gap between TRC engagement and monetization. You’d also want to see small-business adoption and demand-side platform (DSP) integrations driving more ad demand. On the flip side, it’s a warning sign if revenue growth dips below 12%, quarterly EBITDA stalls under $60–70 million, free cash flow turns structurally negative, or engagement starts plateauing — especially on the TRC or home screen. At the end of the day, the market’s asking a simple but critical question: Can Roku actually monetize like a platform — not just look like one? If the answer’s yes, this quarter is just a breather before the next leg up. If not, the stock could stay in “show-me” mode for a while. Peer Comparison for Roku Shifting gears, let’s try to compare the company’s financials against a set of peers. However, the company doesn’t sit neatly in one category. It’s part CTV infrastructure, part ad tech, part streaming service, and part consumer platform. That kind of overlap makes it tough to find a single, clean comparison. So the smarter move is to build a blended peer group, organized by how each company makes money and what strategic role they play. Let’s break it down by category: 1. Streaming Platforms (SVOD/AVOD hybrids) These are companies running both subscription and ad-supported streaming models — similar to Roku Channel’s hybrid approach. Netflix (NFLX): Their recent ad-tier rollout mirrors Roku’s model, and they bring scale and original content to the table. Disney (DIS): With both Hulu and Disney+ under its belt, Disney combines subscriptions with ad-supported streaming across a massive content portfolio. Paramount Global (PARA): Owns Pluto TV, one of the bigger FAST (free ad-supported streaming TV) platforms — a direct comp to Roku Channel. 2. FAST & Ad-Supported Streamers These are Roku Channel’s most direct competitors in the free, ad-supported space. Fox Corp (FOXA): Owns Tubi, a pure-play FAST service gaining traction in CTV. Comcast (CMCSA): Runs Peacock (which mixes SVOD and AVOD) and has a growing presence in smart TV operating systems. Amazon (AMZN): Fire TV competes with Roku hardware and OS, plus it’s layering in more ad-supported content within Prime Video. 3. Ad Tech Platforms (especially in CTV) Roku makes a big chunk of its money through ads — both programmatic and direct. So comparing it to pure-play ad tech firms is useful. The Trade Desk (TTD): The closest comp in terms of ad monetization and targeting in CTV. 4. Platform + Hardware Ecosystem Players Roku’s model is also tied to its OS and hardware — so you can’t ignore these players. Apple (AAPL): Apple TV combines OS, hardware, and monetization, just like Roku. Google (GOOGL): Android TV/Google TV competes directly with Roku’s OS, and YouTube is pushing further into ad-supported streaming. Source: YCharts Looking at trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue growth, Roku stands out at the top of the pack with 13.5% growth — ahead of The Trade Desk at 12.4%, Netflix at 10.7%, and well above Alphabet and Amazon, which both came in below 10%. Traditional media players like Disney, Comcast, and Fox are further behind, with most under 9% and Comcast barely scraping past 2%. The key takeaway here is that Roku is growing faster than both old-school media companies and many tech peers, yet it trades at a fraction of their valuations. The contrast is especially sharp when compared to The Trade Desk — Roku is growing slightly faster, yet trades at under 2x price-to-sales, while TTD sits around 9.5x. That valuation gap underscores the broader point: Roku is executing more like a premium ad-tech platform than a traditional media or device company. The market, it seems, still hasn’t caught up. Source: YCharts The EBITDA growth story is even more compelling. In the latest quarterly numbers, Roku posted a 109.4% year-over-year increase in EBITDA — the highest among all major peers. The Trade Desk followed at 89.8%, with Google and Amazon at 47.8% and 30.9% respectively. Netflix and Apple posted growth in the low double digits, while Disney, Fox, and Comcast hovered around 13%, with Comcast actually in negative territory. Roku’s operating leverage is accelerating faster than any of its comps, which speaks volumes given the ongoing concerns some investors have had about margins. These results show that Roku’s platform monetization is improving meaningfully, and the company is managing costs with increasing discipline. It’s a clear signal that the business has moved well beyond its hardware roots. Privacy Settings Altogether, these performance metrics validate the core investment thesis: Roku isn’t just recovering — it’s outperforming. The company is growing faster than Netflix and Disney, while scaling operating profit faster than The Trade Desk, yet it remains priced like a legacy media device maker. Roku is being misclassified in the market, and that disconnect is precisely where the opportunity lies. If you’re building a forward-looking valuation case, this is where to focus. What to watch for in ROKU To keep a close eye on the bear case for Roku and spot any early cracks in the thesis, it’s smart to focus on the metrics that really matter: how well the platform is monetizing, the health and engagement of the user base, and whether margins are scaling with revenue. These three pillars — monetization efficiency, user quality, and operating leverage — are the foundation of the long thesis. If any of them start to weaken, it could be a sign the story is changing. Source: Author’s Summary Wrap up Roku’s core investment thesis is still intact, though there are early signs that the company is shifting from a hypergrowth story to one of a scaling, maturing platform. The company continues to execute well — expanding monetization across its platform, deepening its hold as the dominant TV operating system in the U.S., and showing meaningful improvements in operating leverage. The growth is real and diversified, but it’s becoming more measured and execution-driven. We’re moving into a phase where success depends less on sheer user growth and more on how well Roku can optimize each piece of its ecosystem. The key risk — and it hasn’t changed — is the monetization vs. engagement gap. Roku continues to grow user numbers and watch time, but unless that engagement translates into higher ARPU, the rerating case weakens. This remains the single biggest variable in the bull case. The next few quarters need to show progress in bridging that gap, whether through new ad formats, deeper Frndly integration, or more effective home screen monetization. So here’s the updated framing: Roku is no longer just an ad-tech story in the making — it’s now a scaled, profitable CTV platform. But to earn a higher multiple, it has to prove it can convert that scale into consistently stronger per-user economics. Until then, it’s best thought of as a “compounder in training” — one with strong optionality, a defensible infrastructure advantage, and a platform that’s still maturing into its full monetization potential.

1/ $ROKU just dropped Q1 FY25 earnings. Growth slowed. Margins expanded. The story’s evolving. Here’s what matters — and why Roku might be entering “compounder” territory. 👇 🧵

Inside Zscaler’s Zero Trust Revolution: How It’s Quietly Replacing Firewalls Worldwide Zscaler is Leading a Multi-Year Infrastructure Replacement Cycle For a long time, corporate security was built around firewalls, VPNs, MPLS networks, SD-WAN appliances, and branch routers. These systems are expensive to keep up—between hardware maintenance, software licenses, and constant upgrades—and they create headaches for remote and cloud-based users by slowing things down. Worse yet, they leave companies vulnerable to lateral attacks, where once an intruder gets in, they can easily move around the network. Now that so much work and data live in the cloud, businesses are starting to ask: why keep investing in a clunky, exposed, and costly security setup? This is where Zscaler (ZS) steps in. Its Zero Trust Branch and Zero Trust Cloud solutions let companies toss out firewalls, routers, and SD-WAN devices at their branch offices. Instead, everything flows through the cloud-based Zscaler Zero Trust Exchange, which means no network is directly exposed and attackers can’t move sideways through systems. The result? Branch offices effectively "go dark" online, making them nearly invisible and dramatically reducing the chances of a breach. Unlike others who simply shift old firewall functions into the cloud, Zscaler has reimagined the entire architecture—cutting out network exposure entirely. Early Indicators For Zscaler Thesis Playing Out There are early signs this approach is catching on. More than 130 customers have already rolled out Zero Trust Branch, and interestingly, 57% of them are brand-new to Zscaler, not just upsells. The company is pushing hard to triple adoption of its Zero Trust solutions across all areas within the next year and a half. From an investment perspective, the opportunity here is massive. As companies rip and replace old hardware like firewalls, SD-WANs, and branch routers, it could free up around $20–30 billion in security spending over the next three to five years. Zscaler, having gotten out ahead of this shift, looks better positioned than anyone else to grab a large piece of that pie. Every Zero Trust deal Zscaler lands doesn’t just add a customer—it locks in long-term revenue streams that could stretch five to ten years into the future.

My last piece on Zscaler $ZS Includes investment thesis, financials breakdown and valuation analysis

Inside Zscaler’s Zero Trust Revolution: How It’s Quietly Replacing Firewalls Worldwide &#8211; Investment Gems

Imports driving GDP lower. Investment partially offsetting. This is actually a Brighton light imho

We are now starting to see what the US economy really looked like in the past 3 years

Stocks didn't seem to like the GDP reading

Recession probability now at 74%, after GDP rate comes negative

QuantumScape’s Bold Vision to Lead the Next Generation of Energy Storage Solutions QuantumScape CEO’s Vision: Redefining the Future of Energy Storage QuantumScape’s CEO has laid out a clear direction for where the company’s headed, with a strong focus on long-term growth and how they plan to carve out their place in the energy storage world. At the heart of this plan is a big idea: to shake up how energy is stored, with QuantumScape aiming to lead the way in solid-state lithium-metal batteries. QuantumScape to be seen as another EV battery company. Sure, electric vehicles are a huge part of the focus right now—because, let’s be honest, they desperately need better batteries—but the goal is much broader. While electric vehicles are the initial focus—because, let’s face it, better, faster-charging, and safer batteries are badly needed—the company’s sights are set on a wide range of industries. Think beyond cars: consumer electronics that last longer and charge faster, energy storage for power grids, and even emerging areas like data centers, drones, robotics, and aviation. The message? Wherever batteries are holding things back, QuantumScape wants to step in. The real backbone of this strategy is their solid-state battery platform, which they call “no-compromise” for good reason. Their tech delivers way more energy density than today’s lithium-ion batteries, charges in just about 12 minutes, and can handle extreme heat—up to 300°C—without flammable liquids. On top of that, they’ve ditched the graphite anode, which not only lowers costs but also avoids supply chain headaches tied to graphite sourcing. It’s designed to outperform existing tech across the board, giving them a strong shot at wide adoption. QuantumScape’s 3-Pillar Strategy: Prove, Partner, and Innovate The roadmap laid out by the CEO rests on three key pillars. First, they’re determined to show this tech works in the real world—not just in a lab. Their QSE-5 battery, now moving into the B1 sample stage, is being tested in everything from vehicles to robotics. The design is flexible enough to be adapted for different shapes and sizes, so it’s not locked into one specific use case. Second, scaling isn’t something they plan to tackle alone. QuantumScape is building a global web of partners—equipment makers, materials suppliers, manufacturers, OEMs—to help bring this vision to life. A good example is their recent collaboration with Murata, who will help scale the production of the ceramic separator, one of the battery’s critical components. The bigger this network grows, the easier it becomes to cut costs, speed things up, and break into new markets. The third piece is all about keeping the innovation engine running. The company isn’t stopping at one product—they’re set on constantly improving energy density, charging speed, safety, and cost. Every advance feeds into new applications, attracts more partners, and opens up fresh opportunities. It’s a cycle: innovate, grow, repeat. Scaling for a Trillion-Dollar Market: QuantumScape’s Long-Term Outlook Looking out over the next decade and beyond, the CEO sees QuantumScape becoming a major player in a solid-state battery market that could top 1 terawatt-hour of production each year by 2040. They’re planning for that kind of scale, even talking about the need for separator production facilities as big as Manhattan. It’s a huge market—potentially worth trillions—and they want a big piece of it. For investors, there are a few things to keep an eye on. Expect more real-world demos soon, starting with B1 samples in 2025 and customer trials in 2026. More partnerships are on the horizon too, not just with carmakers but across the whole supply chain. The potential rewards here are enticing, but hitting key milestones is critical. Watch for progress on scaling the Cobra process, delivering B1 samples on time, and locking in new licensing deals. Since QuantumScape’s success also depends on how well their partners perform, the company’s future—and investor confidence—will be shaped by both its own execution and that of its wider ecosystem. QuantumScape Updated Investment Thesis With the latest Q1 2025 update and a clearer look at where QuantumScape is heading, there are a few standout reasons why the company might be worth a closer look from investors right now. One of the more interesting shifts is how they’re moving away from traditional manufacturing and leaning into a more capital-light approach. Instead of pouring money into factories, they’re focusing on turning their tech into licensing deals, using partnerships to get things done. The ongoing collaboration with PowerCo (Volkswagen) is a big part of that, and their recent deal with Murata, aimed at ramping up ceramic film production, shows how they’re pulling in global expertise to help scale—without having to build it all themselves. This kind of setup lets them keep costs down, collect early payments like royalties and engineering fees, and gradually expand their partner base so they’re not too reliant on any single customer. On the tech side, QuantumScape is still one of the leaders in the push for solid-state batteries. Their QSE-5 platform, which relies on a unique ceramic separator, is designed to deliver across the board—higher energy density, super-fast charging, better heat tolerance, and none of the graphite anodes that traditional batteries need. All of this puts them ahead of most lithium-ion options and even ahead of some other solid-state players. They’re hitting milestones too: B1 samples are expected to go out in 2025, with more hands-on, real-world testing planned for 2026. Internally, their Raptor separator has already beaten expectations, and their newer Cobra process could make production ten times more efficient—exactly what they need to scale properly. They’ve also laid out a step-by-step plan to bring this all to market. This year, 2025, is about fully switching to Cobra and boosting B1 production. By 2026, they’re aiming for a small-scale but high-profile demo with their launch customer to prove the tech works in real conditions. After that, the goal is to let partners take over more of the production load, which would start bringing in steady royalty income. Sure, the big revenue might not come until after 2026, but with early cash coming in from partners and the promise of high-margin licensing fees, things could shift financially sooner rather than later. Money-wise, QuantumScape is in a solid place. As of Q1, they’ve got $860.3 million in the bank, which should keep them going well into the second half of 2028. Their spending has stayed under control too—they used $5.8 million in CapEx during Q1 and expect to spend between $45 million and $75 million for the year. They’re also projecting an adjusted EBITDA loss of $250 million to $280 million for 2025, but there’s no immediate pressure to raise money unless a good opportunity comes along. Looking at the bigger picture, QuantumScape is setting itself up to benefit from rising demand for next-gen batteries in a bunch of different industries. EVs are the first step, but they’re also eyeing things like consumer electronics, grid storage, drones, robotics, and even aviation. The CEO has mentioned that the solid-state battery market could reach over 1 terawatt-hour a year by 2040, and QS wants to be a major player in that space. Their platform model, where they partner up rather than go it alone, helps them scale while tapping into those bigger market trends. Summary of Investment Theses: Capital-light model reduces risk and enables scalable, high-margin growth via licensing. Technological superiority gives QuantumScape a significant edge in solid-state battery innovation. Clear path to commercialization, with B1 samples in 2025 and demo programs in 2026. Strong balance sheet ensures financial stability through key milestones. Expanding partner ecosystem (PowerCo, Murata, other OEMs) accelerates industrialization. Positioned for massive long-term growth in a >1 TWh solid-state battery market.