Iran just liberated Iraq View quoted note →

عيد كريم 🌙 New crescent sighted here in the SW USA Have a blessed Eid nostr View quoted note → View quoted note →

Here's some interesting speculation of how this war could redraw the Gulf monarchies' map. 🤔 If the US and Israel sustain their aggression against Iran—complete with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—for just a few more months, the geopolitical map of the Gulf will be unrecognizable. 🇦🇪 UAE: unable to export oil or import food, the Emirates face an imminent crisis. As flagship financial and investment projects collapse, survival will force a radical choice: reunification with Oman. The British-drawn border between the Sultanate and Trucial Oman (the UAE's name before 1971) was always artificial, and history may now correct it. 🇶🇦 Qatar: a prolonged halt to LNG production isn't just a revenue crisis (gas accounts for 70% of state income) but an industrial catastrophe, as drilling rigs left idle risk becoming unusable. With its only logistical lifeline being the Saudi border, a desperate Doha will have no option but to fold into the Kingdom. 🇧🇭 Bahrain: connected to the mainland by a single 27-km King Fahd Causeway to Saudi Arabia, an attack on that artery would leave the island completely isolated from the other monarchies. With a Shiite majority already resentful of Sunni elite privilege, logistics failure may ignite a revolution. As the result, Iran might gain a new, dedicated ally within the region. 🇰🇼Kuwait: the ruling clans deny it, but Kuwait was part of the former Ottoman Al-Basra province. With the Gulf sealed off, Kuwait’s trade must revert to those ancient overland routes through Basra. At least, it becomes an Iraqi vassal then. 🇴🇲 Oman: bordering Iran across the Strait, it is paradoxically insulated from the chaos. Its major ports, Duqm and Muscat, lie outside the Persian Gulf, granting it unhindered access to global trade. As the region's traditional mediator with Tehran, Oman stands to emerge from the crisis stronger, more relevant, and economically dominant.

GCC needs to read Machiavelli. Neutrality is a very weak possition in wartime. EU should probably consider this too 🫠

a must read for the devs! View quoted note →