Buy every dip... Because there can only be so many of them.

Paper worth reading: “Is Bitcoin A Hedge Against Central Banking? Evidence from AI-Driven Monetary Policy Expectations” — April 13, 2026 The authors look at whether Bitcoin behaves like an asset detached from central banking, or whether it still reacts to monetary policy expectations. Their approach is interesting. They build a Monetary Policy Expectations index using an LLM to classify 118,000+ StockTwits messages linked to $FED and $MACRO from 2014 to 2025. Messages are scored from very hawkish to very dovish, then compared against Bitcoin returns, the Fed Funds Rate, inflation expectations, gold, equities, the dollar, VIX, recession searches, and other macro variables. The core finding is not “Bitcoin is fake” or “Bitcoin is not a hedge.” It is more nuanced. Bitcoin is outside the Fed’s control, but the BTC market is not immune to Fed expectations. Hawkish monetary policy narratives tend to create negative pressure on Bitcoin returns, and the paper finds that this effect can show up before actual rate changes. That matters because people often mix two different things: Bitcoin the monetary network. Bitcoin the traded asset. The network does not need Jerome Powell. The market still trades inside a fiat world full of leverage, ETFs, funds, liquidity cycles, and macro positioning. The paper also separates actual rate changes from expectations. That is important. Markets do not only react when policy changes. They react when traders start pricing the future path of policy. My take: Bitcoin is the long-term hedge against central banking. But in the short run, BTC still gets dragged around by the same central-bank casino it was built to escape. That is not a contradiction. It is what monetization looks like before the world fully reprices what neutral, scarce, non-sovereign money actually means. Link:

arXiv.org

Is Bitcoin A Hedge Against Central Banking? Evidence from AI-Driven Monetary Policy Expectations

This study investigates the transmission of monetary policy narratives to Bitcoin prices, distinguishing the impact of ex-ante expectations from ex...

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From @bordalix "What a beauty, thanks to @Boltz - Non-Custodial Bitcoin Exchange" miner fees on Helm just dropped from ~400 to ~40 sats."

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What a beauty, thanks to @Boltzhq miner fees on Helm just dropped from ~400 to ~40 sats.

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D-Central

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