Adding 2% bitcoin to a classic 60/40 portfolio vastly improves performance. But most investors are too focused on Sharpe-ratio (based on st.deviation). They see that Sharpe declines a bit. Calmar-ratio (based on drawdown) is a better metric and it improves a lot! Using Calmar: ditching stocks and bonds entirely and invest 4% in BTC while holding 96% in cash, yields superior investment performance. It will take years for large traditional investors to change their risk perspective from st.deviation to drawdown and their risk/return perspective from Sharpe to Calmar. Perspective matters.

After orange comes ...

Realized prices are all increasing, and bitcoin is above them all = bullish. Also, 5M realized price (currently $40k) acts like a floor for the dips in bull markets (red arrows). So .. never below $40k again? More info here:

Thinking of udating and reviewing these 8 charts monthly on youtube, as a short market overview.

Hackers tried to gain access to my twitter account today.

New YouTube video: planB monthly market update

Humans will not change (greed&fear) -> cycles will not change:

New PlanB video! "Price is what you pay, value is what you get". $100k - $1m bitcoin?

Bitcoin $40,000-%50,000 at April 2024 halving? New planB video:

Let's take $ out of the equation: BTC = 16 ounces of gold🚀

NEW video on YouTube!

Periodic reminder

Bitcoin Realized Return is positive (green) for the 5th month in a row. Average cost price of May sellers was $24.6k

Some think S2F model is invalidated/broken because EMH, laser eyes, demand, autocorrelation, 100k, cointegration Others are watching S2F trading rule and waiting for 2024 halving to bring profits once again (like 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings did before) Time will tell who is right

@dave can you please make this Python code faster (data file d.txt is ~350GB and the code processes ~2 billion dictionary inserts and ~2 billion pops)? d={} with open('d.txt','r') as f: for l in f: v=l.split(" ") b,i,o=int(v[0]),int(v[1]),int(v[2]) for x in range(4+i,4+i+o): d[str(v[x+o])]=(b,float(v[x])) for x in range(4,4+i): d.pop(str(v[x]), None) print(d)

@dave can you please list the last 10 presidents of the USA?

@dave can you please list the last 10 presidents of the USA?

@dave what do you think the price of bitcoin will be at the 2024 halving?

Let's take USD out of the equation. Bitcoin (BTC) priced in ounces of gold (XAU). Will 2023 be another outlier or revert to model?🔥

S2F 55k 100k and 288k models explained in this video: