Been a while Nostr!

Woke up today thinking – again – how a lot of people are chameleons. Morphing to please other people. People they barely even know. No opinion or thoughts of their own. Everything they think changes based on their environment, who they are talking to, or what group of people they are with today. They’ll even turn their back on a friend and join a group making fun of them. Don’t be one of these people. If you recognize this in yourself, work hard to understand why and work to fix it every day. Having character and standing up for what you believe in is undervalued. #gm

Can you retire borrowing against your Bitcoin forever ("buy‑borrow‑die")? Now that @strike and others like Unchained, Ledn, @Debifi allow for relatively easy Bitcoin-backed loans, the question is... Can you just roll over the debt forever? That's kind of the goal isn't it? Have Bitcoin appreciate in value over the borrowing cost and roll over the debt and live happily ever after? Let's see... Short answer: Maybe. Only if you control five risks – and 12%+ APR makes that challenging. Risk #1 –  Volatility risk Volatility ≠ risk when you long-term hold but it is with loans! Borrow too much and the volatility can trigger liquidation (margin call anyone?). Even big names get margin‑call pressure: Newsweek ran a piece on how a deep Tesla price drop could force Elon Musk to sell pledged shares. Rule of thumb: keep loan‑to‑value (LTV) below 25 %. That survives ~60 % price drops before hitting a liquidation trigger. Risk #2 – Interest‑rate risk Bezos and Musk borrow at 2‑4 % because banks love ultra‑liquid mega‑cap stock collateral. Unfortunately you're not Bezos or Musk, and banks still consider Bitcoin highly risky so you're stuck with high APR's for now (12%+ as of now, though @jack mallers hinted at sub-double digit offerings). If BTC returns stall below the rate for a few years, interest snowballs and you shrink instead of grow. I know @Michael Saylor says it's 30% ARR but there could be a massively down year that can wipe you out if you get too greedy. Risk #3 –  Refinance risk Rolling the debt “forever” assumes lenders always renew on friendly terms. In a risk‑off market they can raise the rate or refuse rollover. In extreme cases, there may not even be a lender available and you have to sell BTC to cover or find highly unfavorable terms. Risk #4 –  Custody / rehypothecation risk Some crypto lenders re‑lend or rehypothecate your BTC. If they blow up (see Celsius, BlockFi) your collateral can vanish even when price goes up. Recently, Mallers cleared this up with Strike (no rehypothecation) and others listed above seem to mostly be on the same page but there's still a risk of them losing your BTC in a hack or some other black swan event. Risk #5 –  Regulatory & tax risk Congress has floated closing the “buy‑borrow‑die” loophole. New regulations could tighten BTC‑secured lending or change step‑up rules. The ultra-wealthy can borrow cheap, on very liquid collateral, and usually keep LTV ultra‑low. You, fellow pleb, even with a 10 % APR, would need BTC to have double‑digit returns every single year just to break even after tax and loan costs. Yes, borrowing is "tax-free" but if you ever have to sell BTC to cover, it will be a taxable event. So can it work? Yes! But only at low interest (hopefully soon) and low LTV. High APR's carry real danger: one bad year of flat or down BTC price plus rising rates can wipe out years of compounding. If you want to do this: keep borrowing small (≤ 25 % LTV), stockpile an interest buffer, and be ready to shrink the loan quickly when #BTC moons (if it helps you sleep at night). Not financial advice. Do your own research. #gm #gn #nostr #plebchain #bitcoin #loans

Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

Few influencers are actually great at what they say they do. What they are great at is getting your attention. The best in any field are usually too busy doing the work—and terrible at getting your attention. Funny how that works. #gm

What a win for privacy! FinCEN BOI (Beneficial Ownership Reporting) officially not required for US Companies and US Persons. #gn #privacy #fincen #boi #business

How great is it when you reach for something without looking and it’s actually there?

Imagine thinking this is a flex. 🤦‍♂️ #grownostr #plebchain #gn

Lots of people worried about the market dip. If you did your homework and know what you own, these are opportunities to buy. Definitely not the time to sell. If you are too worried, your position sizing is wrong. Think long-term and you’ll beat almost every investor. Trade short term and you’re likely to end up in a worse position Embrace the chaos. These are the moments you’ll look back on and laugh about. Buy #bitcoin #plebchain

Good morning! Do something productive today. Not feeling up to it? Start small. Get up and take a shower. Take a short walk. Read a few pages. Do a chore you’ve been procrastinating. Brew some #coffee Take a step and the rest will happen. #gm #plebchain #coffeechain #espresso #grownostr

A strategic reserve should be for scarce and critical assets like oil and gold. Commodities which can help the nation in case of an emergency. @Cynthia M Lummis proposed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), this makes sense as bitcoin has properties worthy of being in a strategic reserve but including other digital assets seems like a way for some projects to profit from the proposed bill. What’s best for the USA (and the world) is the SBR, not a crypto stockpile. If it’s crypto stockpile or nothing, I rather have nothing. Why? Most, if not all, crypto/digital assets will lose value or fail. If you’re going to put tax payer money to work, SBR is the only responsible choice. #gn #plebchain #sbr #eo #bitcoin #btc

Honest question: Why do so many people want Ross Ulbricht pardoned today? Is it because his sentence was extremely harsh? According to GPTs, a fair sentence for crimes similar to Ulbricht's might be: - Drug Trafficking: 15-30 years - Hacking: 5-10 years - Money Laundering: 10-20 years Aggregated, possibly 20-40 years concurrently, considering first-offense, no proven violence, and potential for rehabilitation. He’s served 11 years and 3 months. Best explanation I’ve seen is by Rep. Thomas Massie @Thomas Massie and his short video posted on X/Twitter. He argues that he set up a website which enabled others to sell drugs and those drug dealers are already free while Ross remains in prison. To play devil’s advocate, you could argue that the website enabled thousands of illegal transactions - including, as some allege, listings for murder-for-hire. If true, the punishment might fit, given the site's total reach. I’m genuinely curious because I don’t know enough about Ross or his case. I’ve seen many calling for his release (#FreeRoss) and would love to understand their perspective. Personally, I think Ross has served enough time. Double life plus 40 years is excessive for a young person who launched a website and got in over their head. At the same time, I see the potential real-world harm the site may have caused, especially if murder-for-hire claims are true. If it were me, I’d hope for the benefit of the doubt and a chance to prove I’ve learned from my mistakes. I know a lot of folks here on Nostr are vocal about this like @ODELL - would be interesting to get their take. #gm #plebchain #asknostr #ross #rossulbricht #dayone

This is what meme coins are about. Trading in and out, if you hold long-term you’ll likely end up losing most, if not all your investment. Don’t be the last one holding the bag. Better yet, skip trading altogether unless you really know what you’re doing. Best idea: Stick with #bitcoin if you have the “crypto” fever. #gm #btc #psa #grownostr #plebchain Dave Portnoy has the money to lose on this kind of trading. Don’t be like Dave.

GM! PSA: Cape Town might be great at a lot of things, but it’s not this lungo from #nespresso. Make it a great Friday the 13th! #psa #coffeechain #coffeestr #plebchain

Most things don’t require a deep dive. I don’t even think you need to read or listen to an entire book to understand the subject. There are a bunch of ways to get the basic concept of anything. A short YouTube video, ChatGPT summary of a book/article/study, a podcast, etc. A few short paragraphs, sometimes even just one paragraph is usually all you need to understand the basics. Want to be an expert in a field? Sure, dive in. But most people definitely get the most value by just digesting a few short summaries of the topic and actually use the extra time to put those ideas into practice. A great example is the book “Influence” by Robert Cialdini. I read and listened to the book and then heard a clip of a podcast he was on where he explained the 7 principles in 7 minutes or less. Yes, the book has lots of examples but all you really need are the 7 principles and a brief explanation. Another 80/20 rule in practice. #valueyourtime #plebchain #nostriches #protip

Sometimes life may seem overwhelming. Remember that even the worst moments eventually pass. You just have to keep going forward, one day at a time. Keep your head up and don’t tap out. Challenges only make you stronger. #letsgo #gn

First time I see this… #rainbow #nature #photography

How idiotic is this point of view? I have no clue what the Kennedy family relationship is like, but effectively choosing a political party over your brother is short-sighted and just sad. Even if you disagree with them. Also, kind of hilarious to feel the need to share a ‘personal statement’ about it. No one cares what the rest of the Kennedy family thinks of what RFK Jr decides to do.

People are so numb to data breaches that I only just found out that nearly all, if not all, US social security numbers have been leaked. #security #opsec #privacy #gm https://www.yahoo.com/news/every-americans-social-security-number-055654222.html

GM! Reminder to think for yourself. Just because someone is influential, opinionated, has a lot of followers, lives in a fancy house, has nice cars, etc. does not mean they know more or can make better decisions than you. One of the most difficult things to do in life is think for yourself. It takes courage to make your own decisions. Mostly because it feels like you’re on your own. Get comfortable with that. Don’t seek external validation. #gm #nostr #plebchain #letsgo