BOND INVESTORS COULD TURN ON AI COMPANIES Bond markets may grow impatient with AI firms if their massive investments don’t generate clear returns, warns Michel Saugne, CIO at La Financiere de l’Echiquier. Investors will expect companies to prove they can monetize AI spending, or risk skepticism as they raise debt to fund growth. Saugne likens it to selling “picks and shovels” in a gold rush—you need proof there’s gold to be found. They could, but not today. $GOOG 15B bond issue attracted 100B investor interest. #AI

Active last week. Outlined actions taken on: SFG1T, APG1L, $NET, $FIGR, $MU, Robur Corp. Bond Nordic (Fund)

Generalist Lab

Portfolio moves 2026 Week #6 – Generalist Lab

Some portfolio changes during #6 week of 2026 and thinking behind my sells and buys. Stocks include: Aprange, Cloudflare, Micron Technologies

Agree with Gerstner. Years ago you could buy $CRM at 35 FCFs, you knew what you were getting. AI brings fog around the real discount rate and you get a correction in SaaS. Market wants to see winners (acceleration) and losers (deterioration). One thing is clear though .. every vibe or not coded app is going to need an infra. $DOCN is SaaS too, where was it's dip this week? Non deterministic behavior - backups, snapshots - all infra.

My hurdle for artificial general intelligence: -sustained profitability in market -fix plumbing #AI

Made some movements in portfolio this week. Hopefully will find time on Sunday to write a short blogpost.

24% AWS growth in Q4 - fastest in past 13 quarters and staggering 200B capex guide for 2026, toping yesterday's 185B $GOOG guide. $AMZN

"At the beginning of WWII, for example, an estimated 70% of Germans looked favorably on Hitler. By the end of the war, interviewers had a hard time finding a single person who admitted to ever favoring the Nazis" - Bill Bonner

TRUMP: FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD GET INVOLVED IN ELECTIONS Gold to 10k..

Utiliies guy: "but it makes more sense to pay someone else not to run their chemical company, the refinery company, for 40 50 hours a year, rather than have the utilities go out and spend $10 billion connecting far away wind farms" Revenue not to run your business, imagine that.

TRUMP PLANS TO NOMINATE BRETT MATSUMOTO TO HEAD BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, SOURCES SAY New BLS pick Brett Matsumoto seen as more conventional, apolitical appointment. BLS data *could* be seen as more real going forward. #US #BLS

Rittenhouse Reaearch: "So Microsoft $MSFT has 450 million paid 365 Commercial Seats and only 15 million paid 365 Copilot seats, implying 3% penetration for Copilot.. Not quite sure if this is bullish because of how much runway there is to upsell Copilot to the existing base of 450MM users.. Or bearish because it shows how bad their copilot offering is, lol." Two things answer the riddle: -comments under Satya's twitter financials release thread -$MSFT stock performance

That's the chart that scares $MSFT investors. ~45% of RPO is from OpenAI. Essentially market doesn't think OpenAI will .. pay, to say it softly.

Semi capex continues unabated. META SEES 2026 CAPEX $115B TO $135B, EST. $110.62B

“market opportunity is substantially larger than we initially anticipated [..]. We're accelerating our development efforts across the Scorpio X-Series to serve this expanded opportunity and deliver the purpose-built solutions the market demands” Music to shareholders ears #ALAB

Recent portfolio moves: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_mhuQUWMAQPIX9?format=png&name=900x900 1. sold remainder $CNDS position acquired in 2020 Sep at $315.50; +216.4% profit and +24% CAGR I either had to liquidate or increase size. China revenue share has increased to 18%. Its a matter of time for a next us-china trade dispute, where semi export controls is front and center each time and $SNPS, $CDNS are suffering. Since Lip Bu Tan left for Intel, EPS growth also stalled, as did the stock. 2. Opened two tracker positions in $OMDA ($15.06 entry), $FIGR (entry $63.12). Healthcare is not my cup of tea, but I'll evaluate potential newsletter subscription off the outcome on OMDA. Can't force my interest w/o skin in the game Figure - tokenization, cost savings in monetizing real esate equity, huge, unpenetrated TAM, high profitable growth story. Watchlist time have cost me, but had to find time to dig into materials a little bit more. Besides, crypto legislation could be another catalyst. And finally entered into $CME at $282. Proxy play on volatility, retail activity, metals while US becomes banana republic. $CME had long held monopoly on yields futures market - $BGC (also looking into) is gaining share, but when serious volatility comes, $CME is still the place for deep liquidity. Recent news all point to record trading volumes. Low beta; valuation not demanding. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_mqMx9W8AcI2aR?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_mrPIoWIAAI_LA?format=jpg&name=large

Sold $INTC after hours at $50.32 (+35.6% profit in a little over month long holding). Disappointed in GM, but recent run up had gotten ahead too much. At $57 would had sold purely on technicals. Will be seeking reentry lower.

My understanding is that Trump 5B lawsuit against JPM and Jamie Dimon is direct response to Dimon's Davos talk.

TRUMP: WILL NOT IMPOSE FEB 1 TARIFFS DUE TO GREENLAND DEAL President Trump said a productive meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte created a framework for a future deal on Greenland and the Arctic that would benefit the U.S. and NATO. As a result, he will not impose tariffs scheduled for February 1. Further talks are underway on the “Golden Dome” and Greenland. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will lead negotiations and report directly to Trump. Framework has been confirmed twice: any excessive white house retardation is tamed by threat to UST yields. #taco

EU'S KALLAS: EU WILL MOVE FORWARD ON A SECURITY AND DEFENCE PARTNERSHIP WITH INDIA That's a new one.

AI capex financing - not a bubble. KKR slides. #ai