Rip VanWinkle⚡️'s avatar
Rip VanWinkle⚡️
npub13g07...vg79
I talk about Bitcoin and the profound impact it will have on our world. Stanford grad.
Charlie Munger hated #Bitcoin , but he did drop timeless wisdom from time to time. He once said that "the markets are a mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient." This is 100% true. And it's about to happen AGAIN in #BTC . Markets only move in two phases. The impulse phase and the corrective phase. The next impulse cannot begin until the current correction completes. We should be rooting for the correction to flush out the weak hands so that we can get on with this party. Corrections happen in 3 waves, or combinations thereof. I have them labeled as waves A, B and C on the chart below. Wave C has begun, in earnest. Wave C will be nasty, but once it completes, the up move will resume. There's an 80% chance that Wave C terminates in a buy zone between the low $50ks and low $40ks. This is where weak hands will start to panic and will sell their coins because they fear BTC will head much lower, and they can't take the pain. This is where you back up the truck. I'll be buying more BTC than usual if/when we get into that zone represented by the box. This will be "deep discount" territory for BTC. After this dip, get ready for the rip. -Rip image
GameStop, GME, is back in action. The stock was up 95% today when you include the after hours session. The entire GME saga was, in large part, a reflection of how badly the plebs want to stick it to “the man”. (If you haven’t seen the Netflix film Dumb Money, go watch it. It’s all about GameStop and what happened a few years back. It’s great.) Problem is, they chose the wrong instrument. GME is a listed stock. It is a part of the fiat financial system. It’s under the control of centralized parties who have (and still can) halt trading, or prevent retail from buying it on an exchange. If he wants to rebel against a broken system, TheRoaringKitty should be pumping #BTC . Here’s why 👇 24/7/365 liquid market. BTC never stops trading and has never been halted. While GME is significantly overvalued relative to its fundamentals, #Bitcoin  is not. BTC is legitimately undervalued relative to its potential. BTC is 1,000x better than gold. At minimum BTC overtakes golds market cap which puts the BTC price around $700,000/coin. GME is a dog-shit company. It’s riding on speculative mania. Nothing wrong with speculating. But when the music stops, this thing is going to drop like a stone. In contrast, #Bitcoin  is the most secure network in history and BTC the asset is the best-performing asset in history. BTC has staying power. Both GME and BTC have sharp drawdowns. But BTC has a history of recovering and making new highs each cycle. We know it’s going to bounce back. When GME declines, who knows if it’ll ever bounce back? In other words, BTC is a much better (and safer) store of value. GameStop’s best days are behind it. Bitcoin’s are ahead of it. The best form of rebellion against a broken and corrupt financial system is to stop supporting fiat money. Stop supporting the banks. Stop buying bonds. Invest your life’s energy in the one asset that was engineered to preserve it and grow it over time. Invest in the one asset/network that can never be stopped. I’d love to see all of that passion from the TheRoaringKitty community channeled towards something useful and sustainable. And there’s even more money to be made in #Bitcoin  over the long term. He’d be doing his community a huge solid.
I have never seen America more politically divided than it is today. My #Bitcoin  journey has caused me to shift to a neutral stance politically which allows me to observe behaviors from both the blue and red camps objectively. My friends in the blue camp cannot imagine how or why millions of Americans can vote for Trump when he clearly incited the Jan 6th attack, clearly tried to overturn an election, clearly said “grab em by the p*ssy”, and is clearly planning an authoritarian takeover of the government via Project 2025. Oh, and he was just convicted on 34 felony counts and has several more major trials in the pipeline. My friends on the red team have no clue how or why millions could vote for Biden when the economy is suffering, inflation is at generational highs, the border is a mess, our cities are falling apart and we’re on the brink of multiple wars. Oh, and Biden is basically “Weekend at Bernie’s” in the White House. It’s pretty amazing how folks who would otherwise get along famously are divided over politics. The echo chambers in which we live reinforce our views to the point where they become entrenched. As for me, I’m more of a single issue voter at this point. Any candidate who is committed to fixing the money has my support.
Do not overlook the role that established companies will play in the adoption of Bitcoin. Companies will play a pivotal role in #Bitcoin ’s adoption for several reasons 👇 First, they have excess cash reserves and ongoing free cash flow. This allows companies to acquire large, whale-sized chunks of the BTC supply and to continue buying on a regular basis. This makes BTC more scarce. Second, companies have a one-to-many relationship with their employees. Every company that adopts BTC will find ways to introduce #Bitcoin  to hundreds or thousands of people in their workforce. Some will offer compensation in BTC. Others will fund bonuses and incentive pay with #BTC . Others might offer a Bitcoin savings plan for their employees. Third, every company has competitors nipping at its heels. When one company adopts Bitcoin, it’s competitors will take notice (of the pop in the stock price) and will eventually have to adopt it just to keep up. Just this week SMLR adopted Bitcoin and saw its stock surge 50% in a few days. What board of directors has a problem with that?!? I don’t know if it’ll be this cycle or next, but we aren’t too far away from a stampede of companies all rushing to add #Bitcoin  into the mix. The incentives are too powerful.
Notice that the companies adopting #Bitcoin  to hold on their balance sheets are not concerned with the things we fight about. They are not concerned about transactions per second on the base layer, or transaction fees, or whether they can use Lightning Network in a P2P self-custodial fashion. They’re holding BTC for one reason and one reason only. They’ve done their research and have concluded, like Saylor, that there’s no better place to park excess cash reserves than #BTC . There is no bigger issue in all of economics than the systematic loss of purchasing power across every individual and every company. People and companies around the world are waking up to this. #BTC  is the solution to inevitable fiat debasement. It is not the hedge against inflation that people describe. It’s the cure to inflation. In other words, when you own #BTC , inflation is no longer a concern. In fact, fiat debasement acts as a tailwind for bitcoiners. Never. Stop. Stacking.
The dominoes are starting to fall. Another pubco is adopting #Bitcoin  as its primary treasury reserve asset. This is what adoption looks like. Saylor started 4 years ago, and hardly anyone followed suit. Now, we’ve seen multiple announcements from companies here in the US and abroad that they’re adopting the strategy too. Pretty soon this will become a standardized best practice. Companies can’t grow revenues forever. But Bitcoin will go up forever. By owning BTC, profitable companies can generate shareholder value far beyond what would be possible without a #Bitcoin  strategy. Game theory predicts that companies will have to adopt it or risk being left in the dust by competitors who do. Gradually, then suddenly. 💪💪💪
Most of the debate around Bitcoin within the "crypto" community is around Store of Value vs Medium of Exchange. What isn't talked about as often, but is more important than both of those, is Unit of Account. UoA is where #Bitcoin  will shine the most IMO. When BTC is the global Unit of Account, it will have reached its highest order purpose. Here's how I see it. 👇 - Of the three functions of money, Medium of Exchange is least important. - Store of Value is extremely important. - Unit of Account is most important because it's where Store of Value really shines, and it's where all perceieved volatility disappears for good. Think about it. Everyone has heard of #Bitcoin . And while the protocol itself is extremely predictable and stable, the reason most people don't own it because of the volatility in the fiat exchange rate. When #BTC  is the UoA, all prices will be denominated in BTC/Sats. At that point, all volatility disappears. You won't be exchanging it for other forms of money. You'll be exchanging it for real stuff, like goods and services. It shines as a UoA because the fixed supply acts as a ruler against which all things in the economy are measured. It'll make our current fiat economy look silly by comparison. We will wonder how we ever priced goods and services using 160+ currencies, each with an infinite supply. On a Bitcoin Standard, every time a new house is built, you, as a buyer will have to ask yourself, how much is this home worth out of all the money there is? Every year, as more homes are built, the value of each marginal new home has to be worth less against a fixed unit of measurement. And then there's the productivity gains. Humans are always getting better at making things. Companies don't invest in tech to make products more slowly and more expensively. They invest in tech to make products cheaply and more efficiently, right? This means they can make more with less. So it follows that the natural order of things is for prices to remain in a state of decline, forever, Laura. #BTC  as the unit of account is what unlocks an ocean of abundance for humanity through the perpetual and relentless decline of all prices against the hardest money ever known. And then the Renaissance will begin. image
The discussion around #Bitcoin  as a Medium of Exchange has resurfaced again for the 10,000th time. Anytime on-chain fees spike, the MoE crowd comes out of the woodwork. It's inconsequential IMO. I never would have bought #Bitcoin  if it were presented to me as a "more spendable" form of money because of speed, low fees, easier to make cross border payments, etc. I simply don't have any problems with the spend-ability of my money. I am not suggesting that there aren't millions of people who are looking for those attributes. But in the scheme of things, they are a tiny minority of the global population. There are 150 or so fiat currencies in the world today. Most are only useful within the borders of the issuing country with the exception of the Dollar, Euro and the CNY. Despite the lack of global network effects for most of the currencies, the problems that people encounter with their local currencies is less often about speed, fees, risk of confiscation or spend -ability. The problem is almost always excessive money printing which debases (and debauches) the currency. Working your whole life, only to have your life's energy stolen based on the decision of some unelected bureaucrats is indistinguishable from slavery IMO. We have the illusion of freedom in many parts of the world, but our life's energy is being stolen from us. We, as a species, cannot stand for that any longer. The solution to so many of the world's problems lies in our ability to collectively wrestle the control of money AWAY from the central banking cartel and restore it to the people via a decentralized form of hard money that they cannot stop. Bitcoin is the only tool that can free humanity from debt slavery because it is the only form of money that no one can stop. Sorry, but your big block, blockchain with 5 data centers (cuz no pleb can afford to run a node) will be shut down by a government who feels threatened. But good luck shutting down Bitcoin. Besides, how much of your net worth is sitting in your checking account? Speaking personally, it's less than 1%. I care a LOT more about ensuring that the 99% is crushing the inflation rate. When it comes to local currency, I don't give a damn about whether I need to swap some dollars or #BTC  for Colombian Pesos when visiting Medellin, or Thai Bhat when I'm in Phuket, or Brazilian Reais when in Rio. It's inconsequential. What appealed to me was Bitcoin's ability to not only remain resistant to inflation, but to action absorb fiat money printing and turn that into a huge financial benefit. When you own #Bitcoin , you're almost rooting for the Fed to continue printing money. You turn the source of pain into a profit. You take the weapon the bankers use to steal from you, into more purchasing power. This is a total game changer not just for me, but for everyone on the planet. This is why Bitcoin is important. And there is no other technology that can do what Bitcoin does, better than BTC. It's the fastest horse in the race to beat inflation. There's a tsunami of fiat coming, and I for one, want to be protected. The house is on fire, and Satoshi is offering us fire-insurance.