普通人的目光和面部表情，是他们所在地区和时代文明程度的一种反映

钱实便于事用，民乐行之，禁之难

The OpenVibe icon immediately caught my attention when I scrolled through my phone View quoted note →

Salute! Every purposeful action counts. View quoted note →

基于Nostr的网盘存储🤯🤯 View quoted note →

Energy is important to fight physical entropy. # Bitcoin is important to fight social entropy.

2068年前的今天，尤利西斯凯撒被一群罗马参议员在光天化日下刺杀

The layer zero of # Bitcoin is time and energy

The concept of money is evolving. The concept of property is evolving.

无法反驳 View quoted note →

Only the fools are dancing, but bigger fools are watching. #Bitcoin

Using marginal theory, how Bitcoin's exponentially decreasing supply could affect its marginal value, demand, and overall market dynamics, one scenario: 1. Decreasing Supply and Scarcity - Every four years, the amount of new bitcoins released into circulation gets cut in half due to the halving events. - This systematically reduces the supply of new bitcoins over time, making the asset exponentially scarcer relative to demand. 2. Marginal Value - According to the marginal theory of value, when supply is restricted or becomes scarcer, the value placed on each additional (marginal) unit increases. - As bitcoins become exponentially harder to obtain due to reduced supply, their marginal value and price should rise over time, all else being equal. 3. Demand Effects - With fixed or rising demand for bitcoins, decreasing supply raises the asset's marginal utility and value to those looking to acquire it. - Perceptions of scarcity can actually increase speculative demand itself, as people bid up the price of the more limited supply. 4. Self-Reinforcing Scarcity - As the price rises from scarcity, it signals even greater perceived value, potentially attracting more demand from investors/speculators. - Rising demand against a constricted and exponentially decreasing supply schedule can create a self-reinforcing scarcity spiral. It's not just the static level of scarcity, but the dynamic process of Bitcoin becoming increasingly scarcer over time that theoretically elevates its marginal value and utility to market participants. The continuous reduction in supply is what drives up the value placed on each individual bitcoin, rather than any fixed condition of scarcity.

真实小故事：早就想着比特币新高的时候要开香槟🍾来点仪式感，毕竟是major milestone。2024年开年的时候，以为比特币美元新高会在减半以后。二月中的时候比特币上到50k，依旧觉得新高得在减半之后。2月28日比特币连涨几千头也不回上到60k，我开始觉得新高会在减半之前。昨天周日比特币短暂稳定在62k，我觉得经历一些回调，新高可能在3月到来。 今天早上醒来比特币上到65k，我觉得新高会在这周到来，应该要准备香槟了。下午大部分时间比特币在66k67k徘徊，突然觉得新高明天就到，香槟必须去买了！下班后买完香槟比特币突破68k，离新高只剩几百！今天这晚饭是不能随便吃了，就看比特币让不让我晚饭开香槟了！ View quoted note →

匆匆看完索罗斯金融炼金术的几点感想： 反身性的理论的确比市场均衡理论在解释泡沫和崩溃方面更让人信服。参与者或投资者的观点，认知偏差，对市场的预期和行为本身就会对市场产生反身影响。换句话说，参与者的预期和行为本身就是市场走势的主动的积极的构建因素，而不是像有效市场假说认为的市场趋于一个均衡价格来反应客观的现实，那客观的价格已经被假定存在并被最终逼近。 这种反身性会在金融市场内形成正负反馈机制，一旦形成，便有自我加强的效应的机制，诱发投机性泡沫和崩溃。而一旦超过了某一个极限，这种不断自我证明的反馈循环就变得难以维持了。反身性导致的自我加强最终自我削弱。 索罗斯还警告将供给和需求单独拿出来看，而忽略两者之间的相互影响。 反身性理论似乎能不错地解释了比特币的价格走势。对一种金融资产来说，价格是判断自我反馈机制是否形成的最明确信号。种种迹象表明，新一轮的正向反馈机制已经形成，市场参与者的预期被新的价格所验证，反过来又提升了它们的预期。简繁来说，市场参与者大概在2024年以前还没有太多会认为在减半之前就破新高，但随着比特币价格的强势抬升，这种预期甚至都显得保守。 比特币有强化这种自我反馈的趋势，为什么？因为比特币的设定的供给是无弹性的。不但没有弹性，反而要在价格已经抬升的情况下继续削减一半的设定供给。这种指数级的变化在目前这个阶段，对价格正向反馈的影响是巨大的。反过来说，这种无弹性的设定供给也会在负向反馈中得以强化。而当我们确定这种自我强化的过程产生时，就是大有可为的时候，用索罗斯自己的话说“我几乎可以感觉到我的口水直流，就像一只巴浦洛夫的狗”。 他声称的对真理有效性和操作有效性的区分不失为一个有用的思想框架。真理有效性关注理论与客观事实的吻合程度，而操作有效性则强调主观认知和行为如何改变事实。索罗斯认为，在复杂的人类活动系统中，操作有效性往往胜过了真理有效性的解释力。所以，表面上他作出了真理有效性和操作有效性的二元区分，实际上可以看作是一种对认识和事实二元区分的一种弥合。 尽管索罗斯指出了社会科学滥用自然科学方法的根本局限性，但他的反身性理论似乎还不足以拯救社会科学或人文科学方法论上的尴尬。他希望自己的反身性理论能作为一种哲学的且有用的元框架，并不能让人完全信服。反身性的思想有黑格尔辩证逻辑的影子，虽然他的导师以无根据的对黑格尔的批判而闻名。 有意思的是，索罗斯在一个章节中提到了一种由石油支撑的世界货币的构想。世界货币的价值锚定于石油储备。这类似于过去的金本位制，只是用石油储备代替了黄金储备。这个观点源于他对反身性在外汇市场中作用的认识，他认为这样可以稳定国际货币体系，并消除对美元储备货币的依赖。然而这种世界货币的可行性令人质疑，石油本身的供给波动性，石油本身的价格波动，石油的储备的控制权都是索罗斯没有回答的问题。但至少他和亨利福特及其他有识之士一样看到了货币和能源时间不可分割的联系。 书中也多处谈到了市场机制配置资源的能力，他提到了一个生动形象的比喻，丘吉尔说民主制度是除了别的政府组织形式之外最糟糕的制度。他认为市场机制是除其他所有资源配置形式之外最糟糕的资源配置体系。这种看法比较中立，更容易被左派和右派同时接受。总的来说他更多地强调现有体制和理论的缺陷，而对于能够完全克服这些困难，创立一种行之有效的新秩序表现出相对悲观。

I thought I was already familiar with the content of @Lyn Alden's Broken Money, but to my surprise, reading the entire book felt like an enlightening experience throughout. Rarely does someone manage to organize such a complex and rich topic so precisely and convincingly. To deeply understand something, especially something rich in content, it often requires tracing back to its origin, its foundation, and its entire evolutionary process, because any concept rich in content enriches itself throughout its evolution. Broken Money answers the question of what money is, analyzes the evolutionary process of money from a technical perspective, and discusses the profound impact of technological limitations at different stages, including the birth of banks, contemporary over-financialization, and the phenomenon of debt, with very clear logic. The book is straightforward in listing facts, and its logic is tight in argumentation and inference, explaining phenomena and often pointing out the inherent inevitability within them. Great book!! View quoted note →

本以为 @Lyn Alden 的Broken Money讲的内容我都比较了解了，但全书读下来处处有醍醐灌顶之感。很少有人能够对一个复杂而丰富的话题作出如此切中要害的梳理，有理有据。 要深刻地理解一样事物，尤其是内容丰富的事物，往往要追溯到事物的源头，它的根据里头去，以及它的整个的演化过程，因为但凡内容丰富的事物都是在演化过程中丰富自己的概念。 Broken Money回答了什么是钱的问题，从技术的视角分析了钱的演化过程以及不同阶段技术局限性带来的深层次影响，包括银行的诞生，当代的过度金融化和债务化现象，脉络非常清晰。在事实列举处直言重点，在论证和推论处逻辑严密，既解释了现象又往往能指出其中包含的内在必然性。 好书！！

Common good will prevail View quoted note →

“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency… Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose. “ — John Maynard Keynes

🤯 View quoted note →

Generalized, Unboundedly Scalable Computation on Bitcoin DLCVM @allen https://dlcvm.tiiny.site