For all the #MSTR 1x MNav people out there. I’m confused.. you want to value MSTR solely based on the bitcoin they hold, but that in itself has gone from 252,220 to 499,096 since the US election in November. So which figure do you want to use again?!

A thought on a different lens about #MSTR new preference share offering $STRK, which at the moment yields about 9% p.a in perpetuity. As #Saylor has said, this offers a lower risk product out to the market with a more limited upside and downside than MSTR equity. In the earnings call Saylor pointed out that their current Bitcoin holdings could pay for around 750 years worth of #STRK dividends at current prices, and even 100 years worth if BTC declined by 75%. There are still tail events where the ability to make these payments comes under doubt. The question is, at what point will TradFi investors with no particular positive sentiment on Bitcoin sit up and take notice of this 9% yield? Possibly, at the time when they can hedge out these tail events and still obtain a decent spread over US treasuries. Could it effectively be done now? Would love to hear thoughts on this. Currently, a 2 year put on MSTR with a strike price at $10 can be bought at 0.66, suggesting a max return of about 14x on the premium. IBIT is an alternative - a 2 year put on #IBIT (current price around 55) with a strike of 15 (i.e. a drawdown of 70%) is priced at 0.74, which is a max return of 19x. I'm not sure those offer decent enough protection for someone who wants to use puts to insure against absolute loss of capital on the preference shares, since the premium would have to come out of the annual return and still look compelling for someone looking for an annuity type investment outperforming treasuries at little risk. Final thought - the upside equity conversion also has value and selling covered calls against that could pay to hedge some of the downside risk in dollar terms. cc @Jeff Booth @preston @James Lavish @Lawrence Lepard would love to hear any thoughts and please do spread this question further on Nostr? #asknostr PS my point is not that I'd do this personally, but if it starts adding up for someone in Tradfi with zero positive view on Bitcoin this would be a sign of inversion of the current financial world and Saylor may be able to issue a huge amount of these..

Thinking out loud here on the new #MSTR #STRK preference share offering. These preference shares pay a fixed $8 dividend based on every $100 nominal per share. The current market price is $90, meaning for someone who buys now they yield approx 9% per year. They convert to 1/10 of MSTR equity, on the request of the holder only, and not the company. The company has no rights to redeem them unless certain circumstances are met (I think it's something like less than 20% of shares are outstanding). Hence at the moment with MSTR around $325, noone will convert - your $90 market price would only be worth 325/10 = $32.5. This is why you may see the strike price said to be $1,000 - once the share price gets above this then the value of the shares if converted would be $100, so could start to be worth it versus the market value of the STRK preference shares (currently $90). Bear in mind these will move up and down, so it's non trivial. What I've been struggling with though - why would anyone ever convert when you can continue to pocket the $8 per $100 nominal a year, and always have the option to convert to an ever rising share price? The answer I've come down with is two fold. Firstly, you may want to sell the investment, and if the share price keeps rising, conversion to normal shares may maximise the value of your investment on selling. Let's say the share price rises to $2,000 - the equity if converted is then worth $200. With that said, we can't say for sure that's more than the market value of STRK at that point, as the market value of $STRK itself will take into account the value of possible conversion! Markets normally remove artibrage, so it's unlikely you could buy STRK and immediately convert to normal equity and sell for an immediate profit. Or maybe a small incentive would be priced into it, as you're sacrificing optionality? Struggling to get my head around this. The second potential for conversion relates to the fixed dividend. If the share price is at $2,000, and the market value of $STRK is above $200 (as would be logical), you're no longer realising 8% plus on the current value of your investment - you're being paid effectively 4%. So the incentive may exist to convert/sell, and reinvest that money to achieve a higher income stream than the $8. Let's say there was a $STRK2 issued by #strategy at that point, that paid $8 per $100 starting price, and converted to 1 in 40 MSTR shares.. by selling $STRK at $200, and buying this instead you could double your income stream - so there's your incentive. I'm no expert here - would love to hear thoughts on this if anyone has them. If anyone reads this let me know you're out here. NOSTR doesn't generally love Saylor / MSTR, but I'd rather have this conversation on here rather than X. #asknostr cc @Ben Werkman @PunterJeff

If anyone needs a good book to read, check out Dava Sobel’s Longitude, the story of John Harrison’s lifelong quest to build a timepiece that could operate at sea. Truly inspiring. We stand on the shoulders of giants, and Harrison was one. #bookstr #longitude #harrison

Today’s market movements make me think of the old #Saylor quote - “Bitcoin is channeling human ingenuity into making it better, and every commodity is channeling human energy into making it worse (as a money)” To explain this. Consider computer chips a form of commodity. In #Nvidia you have a clear sector leader that the market has been treating as a form of money. Long term though, all the huge Nvidia valuation says to the rest of the world is - come and innovate and compete for our huge valuation, and have at it. That ingenuity will make Nvidia worse as a form of money. The signs may already be here. #bitcoin #money

Both Google and Apple Maps are dreadful. Google especially far worse than it used to be for simply finding local businesses on a certain street for area, for example. Clearly it’s been commercialised to the utmost degree - I assume businesses need to pay for reach - and now essentially useless for a clear picture of what’s on a street. Has anyone ever had a go at open sourcing map provision like this? Surely a powerful concept if the incentives are aligned right to prevent abuse and draw in collaboration from users. #asknostr #maps

I have now deleted my Twitter account, and my medium account. All articles have been transferred to Nostr. I'm also done submitting with Bitcoin magazine for fairly obvious reasons. Trying to channel my inner @Jeff Booth here- vote for and build the world you want to see in your actions. Nostr has incredible potential. Within the very definition of that potential there is no free lunch. Expect to pay for relays to host content, for clients to deliver it to you, and zap for posts or content you want to see. It should incentivise others to host, deliver or create content. I need to do more of this, but as a start any zaps to my articles on Nostr have been set up to send half to the relays that host them. Elon Musk continues to head down the wrong path in many of his actions to monetise Twitter. It is fairly clear that much of what @ODELL predicted is coming true. By layering in identity verification, he is seeking to extract ever more value from users information. Nostr needs to benefit from what Taleb referred to as the intolerant minority - in this case those who vote with their feet and refuse to engage with the walled gardens of Facebook and X, etc - and instead bring their time, money and attention to Nostr. #nostr #deletetwitter