You know you’re living in a strange time when a nym called “deeznuts” has a better understanding of political philosophy than any politician. @deeznuts
What power law and diminishing returns cannot account for is, among other things:
A tinderbox of distrust in the State’s legitimacy, taxation, and money.
That cannot be mathematically modeled.
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For as bullish and accurate as people believe power law is, it will only have Bitcoin at ~3% of total global wealth in 2070.
That would be a CAGR (in terms of percent of total global wealth) of 6.8%. How bullish does power law make you feel now?
The people who are being most hurt by the fiat system don’t have enough money to buy Bitcoin, such that it meaningfully punishes the fiat system in protest.
The people who most benefit from the fiat system have most of the wealth, but won’t buy Bitcoin (in protest or to punish the fiat system) because the fiat system is working well for them and their debt is denominated in fiat.
So you basically need two types of adopters.
1. The poor masses start earning and spending in Bitcoin, which has massive advantages because of tax avoidance, similar to cash. Then saving at the margin.
2. The wealthy individuals, banks, businesses, funds, etc eventually *defect*, which is how cartels invariably break. And/or they flee a sinking ship. I suspect this group adopts more towards the endgame of gradually then suddenly.
- Not that many people, say 1%, will be *able* to use LN in a self-sovereign, privacy preserving way.
- Therefore, almost everyone will have to use some kind of custodian, be it blended or full.
- Custodian means KYC.
- KYC means tax. Income and business taxes.
- Transaction taxes mean the State continues in its same form, only without a printer of last resort.
What am I missing?