Getting back into reading books. Generally disliking the Internet anymore.
TheBitcoinBattery
TheBitcoinBattery@primal.net
npub1kl8a...q497
Bitcoin is going to fix everything. Don't worry, keep calm and stack sats. Don't understand why? Study markets, money, and history. Start here: Bit.ly/StudyBitcoin
Good morning y'all! I have a #BitcoinBatteryUpdate for you to enjoy. It's a long one, but goes over my thoughts at the current time and includes updated charts as well. Let me know if you have any questions, I'll do my best to answer over the next few days.
On the upside:
We are in what I would call normal Bitcoin times, it's perpetual "bull market" so to speak. Though considering we're still chugging along the long term trend nicely, it's not what I would consider a true relativistic Bull market for Bitcoin as this is simply the long term norm.
We're actually overdue for the parabolic move, we've never gone this long since the previous one without seeing a new one begin. My gut tells me that we'll see something soon, and the longer it's delayed the more mind blowing it could be, but we also may very well just keep experiencing this gradual increase in price without a breakout extra parabolic leg. Who really knows. History is no guarantee of what will come in the future, it doesn't repeat but it certainly often rhymes. Even if we don't see the typical blowout top pattern, the long term trend still continues to be parabolic on it's own which is just fine by me.
To the downside:
The #TrumpTariff market crash lead to #Bitcoin slightly breaking below the long term trend, very briefly, before shooting up with a massive bounce. I did not expect the trend to break at all but the fact that such a broadly negative market event lead to it only breaking for a few days, before the following massive leg up, is still a sign of strong support at the price levels I extrapolated and I still consider a win overall.
Conclusion:
I'll be keeping my eye on the metrics I have, if we see another massive deviation from the long term trend to above 3x then in my view we'll have officially started the parabolic bull portion of the cycle. If we follow the same pattern, then the top may be $1m or even a bit higher sometime in Q4. Remember this chart is the daily lows so even if we reach $2m within a day, it is unlikely to sustain that price level for 24 hours.
So far we're struggling to break above 1.3x, a long way from the 3x indication of the start of a parabolic breakout, but the trend continues to hold overall and I look forward to the next test to the downside.
On a side note, previous parabolic break out moves lead to the price on the open market reaching multiples of the cost to mine a coin. According to MacroMicro's average Bitcoin cost of production chart we're currently pretty much neck 'n' neck in that regard, which further indicates a crash into a bear market is nowhere in sight.
Stay humble, think for yourself, and stack sats. #nothingstopsthistrain
"The people are naturally conservative. They are more conservative than the financiers. Those who believe that the people are so easily led that they would permit the printing presses to run off money like milk tickets do not understand them. It is the innate conservation of the people that has kept our money good in spite of the fantastic tricks which financiers play-and which they cover up with high technical terms. The people are on the side of sound money. They are so unalterably on the side of sound money that it is a serious question how they would regard the system under which they live, if they once knew what the initiate can do with it."
- Henry Ford
FAQ:
Q: What is the "trend"? Is this another bullshit "drew lines on a chart"?
A: It is a long term rate of growth seen by analyzing the bottom prices of Bitcoin overtime. It is calculated to be a compounding daily multiplier on the price, as measured in USD, of 1.002046. Over the last 12 years, since mid 2013, the long term price support grows at a relatively modest 1.002046 each day on average outside of the 2 drops from global macro events. This held through the 2017 bull run with the trend being touched by the bear price and then followed up to 2020. And the same rate of growth in price support appears to have continued following the 2022 bear market.
Q: What happened in 2020? Why is there a drop in the trend then and a MASSIVE drop the following year?
A: After COVID crashed the price to below $4k, the trend line appears to have shifted down 12% from what was seen before. Once it recovered and the 2021 parabolic move began, China announced they were outright banning all Bitcoin mining. This occurred in the middle of the parabolic move in early 2021, cutting the mining network in half. Since the mining network serves as the production side of the network, and the cost of production serves as the major long term support on the price (as @Jeff Booth frequently says, everything trends towards the marginal cost of production) we saw the cost to create a Bitcoin plummet and the open market price followed. This robbed the cycle of significant momentum, resulting in the double top and a much lower than expected cycle peak. The following bear market and 3 years of recovery market indicate a trend line reduction on the Y axis of a whopping 73% due to China attacking Bitcoin and banning the mining network. Interestingly the long term support slope as seen 2023+ on the logarithmic chart appears to be unchanged from the same rate of growth that we saw pre 2020. This leads me to lean towards the view that this long term support will hold going forward, but only time will tell.
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#Fiat economy:
Destruction and extraction.
#Bitcoin economy:
Creation and attraction.
Appreciate Nintendo offering more value for less money with the Switch 2.
A more powerful handheld that's cheaper than the original? Pretty cool.
My #weight vs #Bitcoin. ๐๐
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The bear market can't come soon enough! ๐


Today, June 5th, 2025.
Bitcoin CRASHED to only $100,000!
You are loved.
You do not have to earn your place as a part of the human family.
You have value for no other reason than you are alive.
You do not need permission to enjoy life.
Live your life as you see fit, unapologetically.
Your life is your own, only share it with others who bring you peace by respecting your individuality and intelligence.
Help move humanity towards truth, logic, and reason, for the betterment of everyone.
The world is what we make of it, our lives are what we focus on. Focus on the good, and move humanity in that direction.
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