My base case (by far) is that #BTC starts going up again, and #Strategy continues to be fine (indeed thrives) for the foreseeable future. If, however, BTC stays too low and/or goes much lower for a long enough time, the first real crack in the armor will be the first missed dividend payment... in #STRD... because that's obviously the buffer that STRD was built to be (nevertheless, people will freak out that Strategy missed a dividend payment. If stress then persists even further, Strategy will eventually make the decision to permanently suspend dividend payments on #STRC... but only after systematically lowering the dividend rate as quickly as possible as low as it will go - because (as I understand it) once dividend payments are suspended, the rate is frozen, and those dividends will continue to accumulate on paper potentially forever. In this latter case, a substantial amount of BTC is likely to be sold while navigating these troubled waters; but there's no way Strategy sells anywhere near all of their BTC just to be able to pay STRC dividends that they have complete discretion to suspend indefinitely at any time for any reason. Anyway, that's how I see it. Full disclosure: I have no intention of ever getting anywhere near any of these fiat games myself. * this is not financial advice. 😉

well, that didn't take long... do we have to wait until exactly $58,000.00 is achieved? View quoted note →

and.... Wall Street is back open (58K back in play) View quoted note →

Unsurprisingly, it looks like the the closing bell has has shut down Wall Street's shenanigans for the day, spurring on a modest after hours pump. Until next time, 58K...

ruh-roh raggy!

LFG!!! 🚀 View quoted note →

So, last week Strategy sold MSTR at an average price of ~$121/share and bought BTC at an average price of ~$63K. With BTC that low, IMO, this will almost certainly end up being a good move. Unfortunately, just last month, at their Q1 earnings call, they revealed the slide below to explain when selling shares to buy BTC would be accretive (and vice versa). Based on the average prices above, prior to these moves, their BTC Reserves sat at ~$53B, and their ADSO Market Cap sat at only ~$46B - well below the "BPS Accretive Breakeven" point as indicated by their own slide. As per usual, Saylor's biggest PR problem (and likely rating agency problem, btw) isn't that he's selling equities to buy bitcoin... it's that he keeps saying one thing while doing another.