ruh-roh raggy!

LFG!!! 🚀 View quoted note →

So, last week Strategy sold MSTR at an average price of ~$121/share and bought BTC at an average price of ~$63K. With BTC that low, IMO, this will almost certainly end up being a good move. Unfortunately, just last month, at their Q1 earnings call, they revealed the slide below to explain when selling shares to buy BTC would be accretive (and vice versa). Based on the average prices above, prior to these moves, their BTC Reserves sat at ~$53B, and their ADSO Market Cap sat at only ~$46B - well below the "BPS Accretive Breakeven" point as indicated by their own slide. As per usual, Saylor's biggest PR problem (and likely rating agency problem, btw) isn't that he's selling equities to buy bitcoin... it's that he keeps saying one thing while doing another.

Well, this is new: @Cash App raised its fee for paying from cash balance to ln BTC from 0% to 0.9%. Obviously, 0% forever was never going to be sustainable. 0.9% is still very reasonable for $ to BTC conversion, though. (I'm assuming the recent introduction of USDC transactions had something to do with forcing this change at this time)

FWIW, my personal model for projecting BTC estimated bottom is ~$62.5K. Obviously, yesterday's ~$61K broke my model... but just barely. I'm going to chalk it up to a failure in precision rather than in accuracy, and am declaring the bottom is now in. Much lower, though, and I'll have to admit to myself that my model is junk (which TBH wouldn't really surprise me 😉) *BTW, the reason February's ~60K hadn't already broke my model was at that time the estimated bottom was only ~55K.