Reality is starting to bite. “While the West financializes deficits, rivals industrialize surpluses.” - Aris Roussinos

“The marginal cost of intelligence is trending toward zero.“ - Dr. Alex Wissner-Gross

Suspected US foreign policy "interests" for possible/probable intervention (in no particular order) by 2028: 1. Venezuela ✅ 2. Colombia 3. Cuba 4. Greenland 5. Panama 6. Brazil 7. Manitoba/Saskatchewan/Alberta 8. Guyana 9. Nicaragua 10. Bolivia 11. Multiple Caribbean island nations

I don’t come here as often these days, but it’s sad to see the rapidly rising large number of imposter accounts here on nostr. Yet another reason to spend less time on social media.

In case you haven't noticed yet, Central and South America are the new Middle East for US diplomacy, economics, and military action. Much more to come, I'm guessing, in the Western Hemisphere before 2029.

My 2026 bitcoin price guesses (in USD terms): Average price: $145,000 As high as: $700,000 As low as: $50,000 (Just my guesses. Never individual advice.)

For investors: “Don’t fight the fiscal stimulus” is the new “Don’t fight the Fed.”

We are all geopolitical analysts now.

Bitcoin and AI are both competing for the same, limited electrons in the Western Hemisphere. In 2025, AI is winning the electron race. Bitcoin and AI are both competing for the dwindling purchasing power of fiat currencies in the Western Hemisphere. In 2025, AI is winning the purchasing power race. -------- 2026 promises to be interesting. 🍿

I’ve just been informed that some people still read the newspaper. Please confirm.

Some guesses for 2026: 1. The Federal Reserve will lower the fed funds rate below 3.5%... 2. Which will spur economic growth and inflation... 3. Which will cause the long end of the Treasury yield curve to rise towards and above 5%... 4. Which will be unacceptable to Wall Street and the current administration... 5. Which will induce the Fed to begin yield curve control... 6. Which will cause material weakness in the US dollar... 7. Which will lead to further currency debasement... 8. Which will become fodder for large increases and volatility across risk assets.

Don't miss the significance of the secular shift that began (again) in January 2022. TL;DR The world has shifted away from US-centric Proof of Stake Financialization and towards Global Proof of Work Industrialization. Ignore this shift (and its investment/savings implications) at your own risk.

What I'm watching... 👀 Priced in gold, the last time MSTR was as oversold (in RSI terms) on the weekly charts as it is today was during the deep valley of the flash Covid recession in March of 2020 (see vertical green lines). At that harrowing time, MSTR reached as low as $9 per share. For a long-term investor, this may be a proverbial "blood in the streets" moment for MSTR shareholders. Not investment advice... but interesting to note. Thoughts?

Once (if) the government shutdown ends, Fed Net Liquidity will become relevant and sexy again. Until then, the Liquidity Blob remains stuck in the Fed’s and Treasury’s back pockets. When (if) the shutdown ends, the Liquidity Blob will finally and mercifully begin shifting back to the people and the public markets. This shift should quickly be reflected in the fiat price of #bitcoin. GM.

The two most important (and generally overlooked) factors in determining (guessing) bitcoin's fiat price action over the coming quarters are: 1. Chinese liquidity 2. American manufacturing I expect both to accelerate... materially. Just my guess. You do you.

Regarding the much discussed coming Age of Abundance… Universal basic services (UBS) would be much wiser and more beneficial for humanity than universal basic income (UBI). UBS examples may include widely available: - Clean water - Electricity - Bandwidth - Safe roads and bridges - Food - Housing - etc. Discuss. #AI #Robotics #UBS #UBI

The Revolution isn't coming... it's already here. After an ~80 year run of the post-WW2 system, the much-anticipated global geopolitical, monetary/financial, and societal reordering is well-underway. Remember that great societies are built on proof of work and die on proof of stake. Keep your eyes open and adapt accordingly.

If you love someone, teach them about purchasing power.

Another fun quarterly Mastermind discussion with @preston , @HODL , @Joe Carlasare , and myself.

500 years of Western imperialism is actively winding down. Adjust accordingly.