The world is changing rapidly. History show that during such times of transition and upheaval... - Those who are carefully observing the (sometimes exponential) changes AND are willing to adapt accordingly will be the winners in the coming Age. - Those who choose not to notice or, worse, those who--clinging to the past--simply complain about the new rules and technologies, will soon become obsolete. The choice is yours. Onward and upward.

GM. ☕️ Disinflation is over. The US likely hit the low point of (CPI) for the year. Oil prices have likely bottomed and should meander higher from here. This also means that the chance of deflationary recession is almost zero for the foreseeable future. The US economy should rev higher and economic indicators will likely surprise to the upside. New ATHs (and more) likely for #bitcoin in the near future. Onward and upward.

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US-centric financialization -- peaks and troughs S&P 500 (#SPX) vs #Gold Don't ignore the powerful and highly significant trends. The world is changing. Save & invest accordingly. #Bitcoin #FourthTurning

Pro tip: Increasingly ignore the increasingly obsolete.

For your ongoing consideration... 👀 - Sept 1930 - May 1971 - Aug 2001 - Dec 2024? Sound money + Hard assets vs. Stocks + Financialized assets Portfolio managers take heed. #Gold #Bitcoin

I’ve been in full-recluse mode lately, trying to wrap my head around the massive monetary and financial shift that is currently underway… along with its geopolitical ramifications. The only other macro person I hear talking about it is Darius Dale, so I recently resubscribed to his research service. *Strong recommend* In short, it’s becoming increasingly clear to me that we (may) have just entered a period of long Global Hard Assets vs short US-based financialized/fiat assets, similar to the 1930s, 1970s, and 2000s. The investment implications are profound and, likely, long-lasting. 🍿 #FourthTurning

Previously slated for 2026, it appears that the current administration's policies are pulling the future #recession into the present. This may distort the four-year cycles of which we have grown accustomed. Which may also effect the *expected* price action of macro assets... especially #bitcoin (in fiat currency terms). We are living in interesting times. Adapt accordingly.

What I'm watching... 👀 The U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) index is currently spiking, suggesting increasing instability in the Treasury markets. The Federal Reserve and, especially, Jerome Powell have remained complacent about the U.S. economy and the FOMC's "neutral" positioning. However, the Bond Vigilantes disagree with this complacency... and will likely force the Fed's hand to act dovishly in the near future. #QE incoming. 🍿

GM. Although I have been thoroughly enjoying my break from social media, I thought I would post a quick update on the #Bitcoin magical line chart. OPINION: #bitcoin, as priced in US dollars, continues to show remarkable strength during this *anticipated* period of consolidation since its 20-Jan-2025 high. As the green line shows, we continue to see a series of higher lows IN SPITE OF EXTREME MARKET UNCERTAINTY AND FEAR. This is exceedingly bullish behavior. Could the price break down temporarily to the $70k-75k range? Of course. But I would view this as an incredible short-term buying opportunity... and, importantly, I am not expecting this to happen. Based on M2 global liquidity and sharp movements in the US dollar, I still anticipate new all-time highs for bitcoin sometime between mid-May and mid-June 2025. Could I be wrong? Of course. But this remains my highest probability expectation, even (and especially) IN SPITE OF EXTREME MARKET UNCERTAINTY AND FEAR. I hope this commentary helps. Back to my break from social media. Onward and upward.