Pro tip: Increasingly ignore the increasingly obsolete.

For your ongoing consideration... 👀 - Sept 1930 - May 1971 - Aug 2001 - Dec 2024? Sound money + Hard assets vs. Stocks + Financialized assets Portfolio managers take heed. #Gold #Bitcoin

I’ve been in full-recluse mode lately, trying to wrap my head around the massive monetary and financial shift that is currently underway… along with its geopolitical ramifications. The only other macro person I hear talking about it is Darius Dale, so I recently resubscribed to his research service. *Strong recommend* In short, it’s becoming increasingly clear to me that we (may) have just entered a period of long Global Hard Assets vs short US-based financialized/fiat assets, similar to the 1930s, 1970s, and 2000s. The investment implications are profound and, likely, long-lasting. 🍿 #FourthTurning

Previously slated for 2026, it appears that the current administration's policies are pulling the future #recession into the present. This may distort the four-year cycles of which we have grown accustomed. Which may also effect the *expected* price action of macro assets... especially #bitcoin (in fiat currency terms). We are living in interesting times. Adapt accordingly.

What I'm watching... 👀 The U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) index is currently spiking, suggesting increasing instability in the Treasury markets. The Federal Reserve and, especially, Jerome Powell have remained complacent about the U.S. economy and the FOMC's "neutral" positioning. However, the Bond Vigilantes disagree with this complacency... and will likely force the Fed's hand to act dovishly in the near future. #QE incoming. 🍿

GM. Although I have been thoroughly enjoying my break from social media, I thought I would post a quick update on the #Bitcoin magical line chart. OPINION: #bitcoin, as priced in US dollars, continues to show remarkable strength during this *anticipated* period of consolidation since its 20-Jan-2025 high. As the green line shows, we continue to see a series of higher lows IN SPITE OF EXTREME MARKET UNCERTAINTY AND FEAR. This is exceedingly bullish behavior. Could the price break down temporarily to the $70k-75k range? Of course. But I would view this as an incredible short-term buying opportunity... and, importantly, I am not expecting this to happen. Based on M2 global liquidity and sharp movements in the US dollar, I still anticipate new all-time highs for bitcoin sometime between mid-May and mid-June 2025. Could I be wrong? Of course. But this remains my highest probability expectation, even (and especially) IN SPITE OF EXTREME MARKET UNCERTAINTY AND FEAR. I hope this commentary helps. Back to my break from social media. Onward and upward.

Take some initiative… or life will pass you by.

Unplug.

I would have recommended that #GME buy a significant supply of #bitcoin first with a part of their $4.5B+ as a treasury reserve asset, but here we are. Otherwise, they will likely follow the #MSTR playbook to a tee. Milking the public bond and equity markets to buy #bitcoin... You love to see it. I'm here for it. Onward and upward as Bitcoin consumes Wall Street from the inside out. https://seekingalpha.com/news/4425452-gamestop-announces-proposed-private-offering-of13b-of-convertible-senior-notes

WARNING: THIS IS NOT A BITCOIN-RELATED POST. READER BEWARE. Some notable equity position "sells" in Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund in recent days/weeks: - #AAPL - #GOOGL - #MSFT - #NVDA - #QQQ - #TSLA In general, the so-called #MAG7 stocks are rolling over and losing momentum after years of outperformance. Whether or not they bounce and regain their dominance among equities in the near future remains to be seen. Until their upward momentum resumes, they will ride the proverbial pine on my fund's watchlist. Onward and upward. ⚡

CONFUSED ABOUT THE US ECONOMY? HERE'S WHY. A fantastic chart from Hedgeye and Bloomberg, depicting the strong divergence of Hard and Soft data. The actual ("hard") data--especially in the form of "economic surprises" (to the upside or downside)--have been steadily improving since mid-March 2025. Meanwhile, the sentiment ("soft") data has fallen off a cliff since late January 2025. LESSONS: - To succeed as an investor and/or saver, learn to place facts over feelings. - Trust the hard data... not histrionic, politcally-motivated opinions. - Invest in the future, not in the present or (especially) the past.

GM #nostr family. ☕️ Save in #bitcoin.

"You are designed to see glory, and to be much satisfied by it." - John Piper

As for me, I now like the stock.