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Dr. Jeff
DrJeff@primal.net
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I'm mostly on Substack these days, writing Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook... come find me there! https://jeffross191961.substack.com - Macro - Charts - Geopolitics - Random musings - Sometimes funny - Occasional doom and gloom - Fund management insights - Never individual investment advice ** Nothing to do with Vailshire Capital Management, LLC or Vailshire Partners, LP hedge fund **
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DrJeff 1 year ago
ARE THERE STILL CAPITAL GAINS TAXES ON BITCOIN OR NAH?
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Still just a one-off or nah? πŸ‘€ The Atlanta Fed GDPNow real #GDP estimate for 1Q 2025 is currently: -2.4% (that's negative 2.4%, son) OPINION: - US economy looking a bit ugly at the moment, after leading the world to the upside for much of 2023 and 2024. - The world ex-US is looking pretty solid, actually. - Global assets may continue to outperform, while US-based assets may struggle for a bit. Just my two sats. ⚑ image
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Can't stop. Won't stop. ⚑ Episode #8 is coming out on Thursday, March 6, 2025 at noon ET. An interview with the one and only @Nik Bhatia of @The Bitcoin Layer !! We'll be discussing Nik's new book, his upcoming #AI and #Bitcoin class at USC, as well his well-informed #macro takes. The show will be streamed on @zap.stream and YouTube. Please reply below with any questions for Nik during tomorrow's show!
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DrJeff 1 year ago
β€œI don’t like being mediocre.” - Steve Cohen, Founder and CEO of Point72
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DrJeff 1 year ago
That awkward stage where the fiscal stimulus train is slowing down, while the monetary response remains noncommittal. YOU ARE HERE.
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Hey party people! Today's show (#7) with @Joe Carlasare was a banger! Shockingly (to me, at least), I'm suddenly bearish. AM I CRAZY?!? -- Decide for yourself after watching and let me know in the comments! Here's a link in case you missed the live stream.
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Incoming... You won't want to miss this one. 🍿 The live stream will (hopefully) start at 11am ET... on both @zap.stream and YouTube. image
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DrJeff 1 year ago
#Macrostr ISM Manufacturing New Orders: 48.6 vs 55.1 (prior) - You don't love to see this. πŸ‘€ ISM Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 vs 50.9 (prior) - Still (barely) expansionary, which is good. But definitely weak. πŸ‘€ OPINIONS: The new administration's Downsize and Deregulate with Deafening speed is already starting to show some real short-term economic pain. "Reprivitization" policies should do well in the medium and longer terms, but will definitely require some time to take effect. Risk assets and #bitcoin may be tumultuous for longer than they would otherwise have been without the current major administrative policies. TAKE HOME POINT: Stay humble. Stack sats. (per @ODELL )
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DrJeff 1 year ago
PSA: Do yourself a favor and unfollow me.
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