Peter du Toit's avatar
Peter du Toit
peterdutoit@peterdutoit.com
npub144ed...urkq
I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦
Today the Beijing Meteorological Bureau upgraded the city to a level red warning, the highest heatwave warning, as temperatures soared to just above 41°C Beijing is home to 22 million people, who were urged to take emergency measures to prevent heatstroke. Stop outdoor work in the open air. Take protective measures for the elderly, the weak, the sick and the young and pay special attention to fire prevention. Source: https://weather.cma.cn/web/alarm/11000041600000_20230623070925.html #ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #Beijing image
⚠️ Early Warning — Dangerous Wet Bulb Temperatures forecast for parts of Texas on Friday. Reminder: The actual max wet-bulb temp is lower than 35°C — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy individuals. For older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, it’s likely even lower. (See https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021) Wet-bulb advisory: #WetBulbTemperature #Texas #Heatwave #ClimateCrisis image
South Africa has warmed +1.6ºC since 1881 and we are are on course to reach +4.4ºC of heating by 2100. #ClimateLiteracy #ShowYourStripes #SouthAfrica image
⚠️ Early Warning Today BoM (Australia) released their June El Niño outlook. Take look at their Nino 3.4 probabilities for Sept-Oct-Nov. Compare this to the top 8 El Niño’s since 1950 - we have never exceeded +3.0°C for Nino 3.4 😳 If this transpires 🌡️ in 2024 are going to be 🔥 BoM: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Bureau-model&region=NINO34 NOAA: #ClimateCrisis #ElNino #EarlyWarnings
For every °C that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%. The more water vapor that air contains, the more energy it holds, fuelling intense storms, particularly over land resulting in more extreme weather events. Pics from Citrusdal in the Western Cape, South Africa showing severe storm damage resulting in millions of rands in infrastructure damage and crop loses. The only access road to the town has been washed away and essential supplies for the 5,000 residents is being airlifted. CO2 concentrations 424 ppm +1.27°C above preindustrial average In the near term (2021-2040) the people and animals most at risk of extreme weather events are those who exist: 1) Close to their upper thermal limits 2) Along coastlines 3) Near ice or seasonal rivers #ClimateLiteracy #EarlyWarnings #ExtremeWeather #Citrusdal #SouthAfrica
35 million people find themselves under a heat/red flag advisory in the US on Friday. “Record-breaking heat index temperatures could reach 115 F (46 C) in cities such as Dallas, Houston and Austin, the Texas state capital, where officials have opened cooling centers in libraries and park buildings and urged people to drink plenty of water and stay out of the sun.” Reporting: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/stifling-heat-wave-grip-us-south-over-holiday-weekend-2023-06-15/ Weather.gov advisory: CO2 concentrations 424 ppm 🌡️ +1.27°C above preindustrial #Heatwave image
⚠️ Early Warning There is some serious heat building in north east China with a forecast high of 40ºC in Beijing for Friday June 16 image
A timeline cleanse. This majestic crowned eagle, Africa’s most powerful, was released just a short distance from where are after a dramatic rescue a few days ago. These eagles are near threatened as a result of habitat loss, mainly forests. Hamba kahle special friend. image
Early Warning We are in brand new territory: “When you have an El Niño occurring on top of the long-term warming trend, it’s like a double whammy.”—Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy. Any business that does not, as a matter of urgency, become climate literate, is going to experience considerable pain. “Dartmouth scientists estimated that the 1997-1998 El Niño led to $5.7 trillion in lost gross domestic product the following five years. Their modeling estimates that by the end of this century, El Niños will have blocked some $84 trillion in GDP.” Climate disruption is real and is coming at us at break neck speed. How ready are you? #futureofwork #disruption #climateliteracy
Early warnings: The #India Meteorological Department issues storm and wind track for tropical cyclone #Biparjpy with landfall expected near Jakhau Port, Gujarat around noon on Thursday June 15 image
Climate Literacy: During an El Niño event, the trade winds that normally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific weaken or even reverse direction³⁵. This causes the warm surface waters that are usually found in the western Pacific along the coasts of Ecuador/Peru/Chile to spread eastward along the equator¹³⁵. As a result, the ocean heat that is normally stored in the western Pacific is released to the atmosphere in the central and eastern Pacific²⁴. This affects the global weather patterns and climate¹²³⁵. Sources: (1) El Niño: Pacific Wind and Current Changes Bring Warm, Wild Weather. (2) What are El Niño and La Niña, and how do they change the weather?. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64192508. (3) El Niño - National Geographic Society. https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/el-nino/. (4) El Niño and Extreme Ocean Heat Are About to Clash for the 2023 .... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/el-nino-and-extreme-ocean-heat-are-about-to-clash-for-the-2023-hurricane-season/. (5) El Niño and La Niña: Frequently asked questions. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-frequently-asked-questions. image
#ClimateLiteracy: The 1.5° limit applies to the average temperature over a year, and passing it would mean that the average will have been sustained for several years. That said, we have crossed the 1.5°C anomaly on hundreds of individual days, after which it has fallen back below 1.5° Most of these days occurred in 2016 & 2020. Now as the heat begins to load up as a result of the maturing El Niño we will see many individual days again cross 1.5° For example look at this. In 2023 we breached 1.5° on March 6-11 and again yesterday (June 9th) image