Now that the Actuaries have woken up to the reality bearing down on us like a freight train, will the rest of us too? The consequences of going to a permanent +1.5°C of warming by 2030 and then +2°C by 2050 are going to push many countries to the brink of collapse.

Insights - Lloyd

Find articles and reports about global events and trends impacting the Lloyd’s market, Corporation and wider world of risk

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

Berkely Earth: “The global mean temperature in September 2023 was 1.82 ± 0.09 °C (3.28 ± 0.17 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average, a new record for the highest temperature excess of any month.” 2023 months above +1.5°C: March +1.52°C July +1.52°C August +1.68°C September +1.82°C

Berkeley Earth

September 2023 Temperature Update - Berkeley Earth

September 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1850. 2023 is virtually certain to become a record warm year, and likely to exceed 1.5 °C.

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

We are stepping into a brand new world. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): “[September] as a whole was around 1.75°C warmer than an estimate of the September average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period.” “For January to September, the global mean temperature for 2023 is 1.40°C higher than the 1850-1900.”

Surface air temperature for September 2023 | Copernicus

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

Our legacy in one graphic. “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries” (13 Sep 2023) Katherine Richardson et al https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 #PlanetaryBoundries

Data just released by the team at Berkley Earth for August shows that the global mean temperature for the months of June to August above the 1850 to 1900 average looked like this: June +1.47ºC July +1.54ºC August +1.68ºC Source: berkeleyearth.org/whats-new/ #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #GlobalHeating 2023 is now almost certain to be the warmest year in the instrumental period.

No surprise at all, the June-July-August season was warmest on record globally by a large margin. Again as said before preparation for the summer of 2024 needs to start *now* as it is projected to be even hotter than 2023. #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

Summer 2023: the hottest on record | Copernicus

Global temperature records continue to tumble in 2023, with the warmest August following on from the warmest July and June leading to the warmest b...

The heat is not done in Europe. September records set to tumble. #ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #HeatDome

Severe Weather Europe

A Massive Heatwave is Forecast for Western Europe Again - Unseasonably High Temperatures develop under the Heat Dome as we head into the first week of September 2023

Did you think summer weather is over? Hold on, another extreme heatwave is forecast for large part of Europe through mid-September. Heat Dome returns.

Wet Bulb Temperature risks 2023-2050: “Even heat-adapted people cannot carry out normal outdoor activities past a wet-bulb temperature of 32°C (90°F), equivalent to a heat index of 55;°C (131°F). A reading of 35°C (95°F) – equivalent to a heat index of 71°C (160°F) – is considered the theoretical human survivability limit for up to six hours of exposure.” Pictured: locations on earth that are at increased risk of reaching these thresholds for a number of days annually in next 27 years Quote source:

Wet-bulb temperature - Wikipedia

Graphic source: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf #ClimateLiteracy #WetBulbTemperatures #ClimateCrisis

#ClimateLiteracy Take a look at these two images. The first is from NASA and when sharing it they state “July 2023 was the hottest month globally since modern recordkeeping began in 1880, measuring at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s 1951-1980 baseline average.“ we The second image is from ECMWF and in its release they state “The month (July) is estimated to have been around 1.5°C warmer than the average for 1850-1900.” Who’s right is it +1.18°C of warming or +1.5°C We They are both right. The difference is NASA is using 1950-1980 as the baseline and ECMWF is using 1850-1900 as their baseline. In the work we do (see my cover image) we use the ECMWF baseline of 1850-1900. Using that baseline, 2023 so far, has warmed +1.28°C We are expected to cross the +1.5°C of warming by about 2030 and +2°C by 2050, the impacts of which are now coming clearer into view.

Current warming above the preindustrial average: +1.28°C June 2023: +1.4°C July 2023: +1.54°C We are on track to reach +1.5°C of warming by about 2030 and +2°C by about 2050. What will the heat domes look like then? #Heatwave #HeatDome #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

Threads

Jeff Berardelli (@jeff.berardelli.2025) on Threads

Competing historic Heat domes across the Atlantic. As intense as the US dome is, France may have it beat on the ground, with dozens and dozens of a...

US Heat Index forecast for Wednesday Aug 23, 2023 Risks explained: 27-32°C (80-90°F) Caution: fatigue is possible with prolonged exposure and activity. Continuing activity could result in heat cramps. 32-41°C (90-105°F) Extreme caution: heat cramps and heat exhaustion are possible. Continuing activity could result in heat stroke. 41-54°C (105-130°F) Danger: heat cramps and heat exhaustion are likely; heat stroke is probable with continued activity. Over 54°C (Over 130°F) Extreme danger: heat stroke is imminent. Forecast source:

Spectrum

Heat is getting worse in most places. See the heat index where you live

See maps of the maximum heat index forecast across the United States for today and the next seven days.

Heat Index explained:

Heat Index Calculator

This calculator estimates heat index temperature felt by the human body based on the actual measured air temperature together with humidity level o...

Stay safe. #Heatwave #ClimateCrisis

With June and July having been the hottest months ever recorded, and now August likely to follow, 2023 looks set to become the hottest year on record. For analysis see

On track for the warmest August on record

2023 continues its inexorable march toward being the warmest year on record

So far (Aug 2023) we are at +1.28°C of warming above the preindustrial average. You can see the Oxford University real-time tracker here

globalwarmingindex.org -- Tracking progress to a safe climate

This is a fire currently burning out of control in Alexandroupolis, Greece. They are currently evacuating everyone in its path, including the hospital.

GreekReporter.com

Alexandroupolis Hospital Evacuated as Wildfires Rage in Greece - GreekReporter.com

The main hospital of Alexandroupolis in northeast Greece has been evacuated as wildfires have engulfed the coastal town near the border.

As mentioned a few days ago, https://mastodon.green/@peterdutoit/110920113513702018 climate refugees will not necessarily be from far away places but from local communities, sometimes from the next town or village. The displacement and movement of people is set to increase dramatically with each 0.1°C of warming. We are currently heating at about 1.22 W/m2. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/UhOh.14August2023.pdf The month of June was the hottest ever recorded - above +1.4°C above the preindustrial average

Threads

Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) on Threads

And the warmest June too…

So was July at 1.54°C

Berkeley Earth

July 2023 Temperature Update - Berkeley Earth

July 2023 was the warmest month since record-keeping began in 1850. El Niño is strengthening, and 2023 is virtually certain to become a record war...

and August is set to break its record too.

Threads

Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) on Threads

The world is on track to experience its warmest August on record, beating the prior record set in 2016 by a fairly large margin. This further incre...

If we cannot find a way to slam the brakes on our current emission trajectory there is a lot of disruption, pain and misery in our collective futures. #ClimateCrisis #ClimateRefugees

⚠️ Early Warning Extreme precipitation event forecast for US west coast Aug 18-21. Flash flooding very likely. Data source

ECMWF | Charts

#EarlyWarning In the next 27 years, on our current trajectory, everyone and everything alive on earth will first experience a world at an average global temperature of 15.3°C (+1.5°C above preindustrial average of 13.8°C) and then a world at 15.8°C (+2°C above preindustrial) Both these states will unlock climate chaos only seen in movies. Forget about 2100. The clear and present danger is NOW for billions of people, animals and plants. What we do TODAY about turning off the emissions tap that is pouring GHG’s into the atmosphere is going to determine if we can buy sufficient time to adapt or not. #ClimateCrisis

Pay attention. Heatwaves in winter are absolutely not normal. Instrument readings: CO2 atmospheric concentration 423.68 ppm CH4 atmospheric concentration 1920.74 ppb 15.08°C average global temperature (+1.28°C above preindustrial average of 13.8°C) +21°C Ocean temperature (60S-60N) Pictured 2m temperature anomaly across South America Aug 3 to Aug 6, 2023.

Whether you use the HadCRUT5 or ERA5 data sets one thing is crystal clear we are very close to making 15.3°C (that is +1.5°C above the preindustrial average of 13.8°C) the new global average temperature. There are horrors that await this shift. Speaking of impacts at the current 15.03°C (+1.28°C above preindustrial) Prof Bob Watson said, referring to impacts at the poles: “I am very concerned. None of the observed changes so far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.” With each incremental increase we move more and more of life on earth beyond adaptation limits. We are in an emergency. #ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

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Important comment from Susanna Ditlevsen co-author of the now famous study on the AMOC collapse possibility. Her comments (pictured) (Source: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7090635497059803136)

Very sobering from Prof. Bob Watson as the impacts mount at +1.28°C of warming. Quote source:

the Guardian

What frightens me about the climate crisis is we don’t know how bad things really are | Roger Harrabin

As the barrage of bad news from places like Greece continues, all we can be certain of is there are many surprises lying ahead, says analyst Roger ...

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

The #Mediterranean is on fire at the moment. #Heatwaves #Europe Data:

Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature - Trend - CEAMed