It’s coming at us faster than we thought.
From the AR6 Synthesis Report:
“Levels of risk for all Reasons for Concern (RFCs) are assessed to become high to very high at lower global warming levels compared to what was assessed in AR5 [2014]. This is based upon recent evidence of observed impacts, improved process understanding, and new knowledge on exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, including limits to adaptation.”
Notice this conclusion “is based on observed impacts.”
Here are some “observed impacts” for North Africa and the Western Mediterranean late April 2023:
“During the last week of April 2023 local temperatures in many regions in #Spain, #Portugal, #Morocco and #Algeria were up to 20 degrees higher than normally at this time of year. For Portugal and mainland Spain the national April record was broken by a very large margin, with 36.9°C and 38.8°C respectively measured in the southernmost parts of the countries. In Morocco, several (local) April records have been broken across the country and temperatures exceeded 41°C in some cities such as Sidi-Slimane, Marrakech, Taroudant. Temperatures exceeded 40°C in Algeria on 28 April (Maghnia, Mascara-Ghriss at least).”
This study just released on this event makes this comment:
“To estimate the influence of human-caused climate change on this extreme heat we combine climate models with the observations. Observations and models both show a strong increase in likelihood and intensity but the change is systematically lower in the models than in the observations. The fact that extreme heat is increasing faster than climate models simulate is a known problem in summer in Western Europe, in all climate models, and is also found here.”
Source:
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/103833/9/Scientific%20Report%20West%20Mediterranean%20Heat.pdf
#ClimateLiteracy #Adaptation
