US INTEREST RATE FUTURES PRICE IN 78% CHANCE OF PAUSE IN JANUARY MEETING VS 70% BEFORE FED RATE CUT -LSEG
FUTURES IMPLY TRADERS SEE FED POLICY RATE AT 3.1% AT END-2026 AFTER FED RATE CUT, LITTLE CHANGED FROM LEVELS JUST BEFORE -LSEG
Assuming traders still price independent FED for next year. Mistake imo.
QE starts in 2 days. My outlook: party on into year end, volatility starts Q1 w/ bootlicker Hasset as FED chair:
-Rates down
-10Y up
-Gold up
-Stocks up
-Dollar down
26'Q1 shaping up to be more volatile. Cuts vs renewed US dollar (fed independence) credibility.
Whitehouse sketching plans to veto FED presidents, vigilantes warning about Hasset doing Trump's bidding (duh).
#FED #SP500
Wiki founder Wales:
"level of trust in Musk is extremely low, because he says wild things all the time. When he attacks us, people donate more money[..]. That's not my favorite way of raising money, but the truth is a lot of people are responding very negatively to that behavior"
Trump Accounts to start July 4 next year
United States President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the so-called Trump Accounts, the investment accounts for children under 18, will become available from July 4 next year.
Block mentioned in Investor day they are working with trump administration on this.
$XYZ
Eurostat:
Between 2004 and 2024, household real income per capita in the EU grew by 22%.📈🏡
Largest growth in household real income per capita in:
🇷🇴Romania (134%)
🇱🇹Lithuania (95%)
🇬🇷Greece and 🇮🇹Italy registered decreases (-5% and -4%, respectively).
German writer Eduard Fuchs trashing US press in 1912 (!)
"We will note that the sensational and gossip press is all without exception "very loyal and patriotic." It is usually the more patriotic the more disgusting it is in order to gain the confidence of the authorities. Nowadays there are gossip newspapers in all the major cities of the world, and in America the whole press is like that."
Failed to increase AKO1L position last week heading into FY Q1 release. I saw momentum in commodities and raw inputs that suggested strong Q1. Market also saw it too, keeping price afloat above ex-div and immune against downturn in US.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G6H9QM0XkAE1Eh1?format=png&name=900x900
Bitcoin Core v30.0 increased OP_RETURN limit to "effectively unlimited". Pieter Wuille (core dev) explains the rationale.
My takeaway: Bloat on nodes is lesser evil against hurting decentralization via multiple angles that limits support long term.
@Charles_Lister
Parts of #Syria are beginning to see huge improvements in electricity supply, with #Damascus, #Aleppo & #Hama all receiving 16-24hrs of electricity per day in recent days.
That's up from 4-6hrs (which has been the norm for yrs) thanks to gas supplies & vast structural repairs.
-focus on maintaining ROIC
-all hardware IP from OpenAI (custom chips, ex. consumer) to be available to $MSFT for next 7 yrs
-datacenter buildout pause - build on demand visibility, w/ grounding in chip replacement cycles, different power, networking reqs