-focus on maintaining ROIC
-all hardware IP from OpenAI (custom chips, ex. consumer) to be available to $MSFT for next 7 yrs
-datacenter buildout pause - build on demand visibility, w/ grounding in chip replacement cycles, different power, networking reqs
Today had time to dig into Block $XYZ Q3 materials. Tried finding a reason for a -10% market reaction.
Likely culprit: falling Cash App GPV, despite accelerating growth in Cash App gross profit. It aint macro either. Venmo GPV (TPV) grew just fine.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5lPrfnWUAAF79D?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5lQZa6WMAA1Rrq?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5lSsS5XYAAfFVl?format=jpg&name=largeSo $ALAB earnings did not disappoint. 104% YoY profitable revenue growth; 20% QoQ. Only yesterday learned $AMZN has a stake since 2024.
They beat their own guides since IPO, however for 25'Q4 they are accelerating guided revenue.
Holding, would add around $140 if market gives.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5A5sVFX0AACsLK?format=png&name=largeBought remainder of target position in VLP1L at same cost as initial purchase two weeks ago. Increased position by ~20%.
Honestly, I don't understand the issue with Musk's $TSLA proposed pay package.
1. Does top richest man in the world need more money?
2. Why are fanboys cheering the dilution?
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves” - Peter Lynch
"Your portfolio is like a bar of soap. The more you touch it, the smaller it gets" - unknown
Could not let go of yesterdays post after market idea to increase $ALAB, given sustained big tech Q3 CAPEX guidance. Doubled size (now 2% of portfolio) at $188.48.
Will see what Tuesday report and market brings.
Cash: 20%. Not posting updated chart..
Trimmed $NET position by ~10% today at $238. FIFO profit: +235% (+28.4% CAGR)
Hard sell into accelerating revenue, but sale is portfolio share based only. No balls to trim to ~20% yet
Wanted partial rotation into $ALAB, but market got ahead of me, seeing sustained bigtech capex.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4m7HAZWIAA_NHH?format=png&name=900x900Nuclear power plants operated by France face particular stress from elevated river water temps and reduced flow volumes. Studies indicate outage levels could x2 at Chooz and x10 at Golfech reactors by 2050, w/ up to 14% of generation requiring curtailment in worst-case years.
After years of losing international transfers maket share to less greedy providers and crypto $WU - business that should not exist on 2025, moves to crypto.
Western Union to Launch Stablecoin in 2026 -- WSJ
Western Union to Build Stablecoin on Solana Blockchain, Issue With Anchorage -- WSJ
Western Union to Launch Digital Asset Network of Wallet Providers -- WSJ
In 2000s, more than 50% of the population in Southeast Asia, aged >15yr, used tobacco. By 2030, it's expected that fewer 20% people in Southeast Asia will consume tobacco.
Europe smokes the most now.
WHO set its own target of reducing tobacco use by 30% within 15yrs
$PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4SiGRLXsAEpX3d?format=png&name=largeRecent portfolio moves:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4NJfHiXEAAq7Rn?format=png&name=900x900
-Increased AKO1L again by ~30% at 1.795. Sizable buybacks give comfort buying at ATH.
-Returned to MDARA in ~9.65-9.75 range. Expecting a notable improvement in margins, reasonable top line growth and geo expansion announcement (hinted at Q2)
-Entering VLP1L for first time at 10.5. Sizable insider buying before Q3 drops. But I'm leaning on a favorable acquisition price of MPK (see recent blogpost). CEO hints at doubling revenue
-Nailing a local bottom w/ another $ALAB buy at $151, reporting now, bc >1% weight
-And as reported Friday, likely temporarily sold $INTC at 83.2% profit (>900% CAGR), will seek to repurchase in $32-35 range.
Been making moves in portfolio, will try to report tomorrow. Just a quick one on $INTC: Q3 with notable improvement in execution, margins.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3-LrBJXsAAT_Xn?format=png&name=medium
Bought on technicals at $23. Then news came rolling in; sold today after hours for +80% profit in 3 months. Will try to repurchase lower.
Institutionals out, retail in.
Bank of America Securities said clients resumed selling U.S. stocks last week after briefly “buying the dip,” led by institutional and hedge fund outflows.
Despite a 1.7% gain in the S&P 500, $2.1 billion in single-stock outflows outweighed $1.2 billion of ETF inflows. Institutions, who were big buyers the week before, became the largest sellers, while hedge funds extended their selling streak to six weeks. Retail investors kept buying, focusing on mid-cap stocks.
I have previously introduced Lulu Rouge. Then Ninna Nanna pops into suggested, a remix by Trentemoller, another artist I've been listening for years.
Such distinct, dark, subtle atmosphere these guys can summon. A lullaby of sorts.
#GLMusicDiscovery
Daily I see headlines of RU hybrid warfare on ground and cyberspace.
I want #EU to have a shadow fund, that operates to sabotage ruzzian infrastructure, "hauthi" the shadow fleet, nafo memes in ruzzian telegrams and vkontakte, pro democracy llm botnets in western media.
Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s terms for ending its war in a volatile White House meeting on Friday, warning that Vladimir Putin had said he would 'destroy' Ukraine if it did not agree - ft
Another 180.
There's a reason putin called A DAY before Zelenksy White House visit.
Donnie can barely keep anything in his deteriorated mind. Like somebody said - his views are formed by the last person he talks to.
$AAPL - APPLE REPORTEDLY ENTERS ROBOTICS MARKET
Apple is expanding smart home production in Vietnam with BYD, making devices like a HomePod-style display and a motorized tabletop robot, expected in 2026–2027.
Morgan Stanley says the move brings AI into the physical world and positions Apple to compete with other major tech players in robotics.
Can't do AI, but sure will do robotics.
Reminiscent of Zuck chasing fads. (What's the return on that metaverse, from 2020-2022 capex?)
$AAPL
AI video generation is a tailwind for legacy media, but goes against the typical social media user preferences
