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PlanB
planb@planbtc.com
npub15wcv...qy0q
Creator of the stock-to-flow model
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PlanB 2 years ago
S2F 55k 100k and 288k models explained in this video:
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PlanB 2 years ago
image Saying S2F model is "wrong/invalid/broken", means saying BTC price pumps after 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings (red arrows) are coincidences, random, unrelated to halvings. Possible, but I disagree. IMO 21M cap, supply schedule, 4y halving cycle are fundamental to BTC price. IMO the halving will probably be at S2F model value $60k (dark blue) and BTC will pump after the halving (red), just like 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings.
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PlanB 2 years ago
image Metcalfe's Law says: value of a network = number of users squared (N^2) S2F Model says: value of an asset = scarcity cubed (S2F^3) So if S2F 2x then value 8x (2x2x2) Oh, and April 2024 halving will 2x #Bitcoin    S2F Probably nothing🔥
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PlanB 2 years ago
image #Bitcoin    April 2024 halving will double S2F-ratio from ~55 to ~110, and make BTC scarcer than gold (S2F-ratio ~60). 1) will BTC value post halving > pre halving (as per S2F model)? 2) will BTC mcap > gold $10T (as per S2FX model)? 3) will S2F trading rule (see chart) still work?
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PlanB 2 years ago
#Bitcoin    Jan 27, 2021: $29K Feb 21, 2021: $58K (~2x in 25 days) --- Jul 20, 2021: $29K Sep 6, 2021: $52K (~2x in 47 days)
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PlanB 2 years ago
New PlanB video on YouTube 🔥
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PlanB 2 years ago
image NEW chart: #Bitcoin market stages 🔵 stage 1: early bear 🟢 stage 2: late bear 🟡 stage 3: early bull <- we are here 🔴 stage 4: late bull This is my favorite chart after S2F, based on 1 on-chain variable. Not prediction, but detection. If you like this stuff, I will update.
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PlanB 2 years ago
image #Bitcoin March closing price $28,476
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PlanB 2 years ago
image 73% of all (on-chain) #Bitcoin is in profit (green)
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PlanB 2 years ago
image Current bitcoin adoption is ~1% Adoption from 1% to 10% will be as fast as from 0.1% to 1%, as per the s-curve 1/(1+exp(a)) .. less than 10 years! And yes, there is a link between adoption% and price (Metcalfe's law). The vertical is coming.
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PlanB 2 years ago
image Of course banks & governments hate bitcoin! Just like the horse industry hated cars Just like the music industry hated MP3 Just like the telecom industry hated VOIP
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PlanB 2 years ago
image Bitcoin RSI > 50 .. bull market confirmed🚀
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PlanB 2 years ago
image Trust in (central) banks is broken. Fiat system is compromised and weaponized (cut countries off Swift, freeze accounts, kill industries). Fiat money lost money functionality. Bitcoin is math (ECDSA+SHA256+P2P) thus doesn't need trust. Bitcoin also uses less energy than banking!
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PlanB 2 years ago
image Bitcoin momentum is turning bullish, despite banking woes. Blue is next, then red.
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PlanB 2 years ago
image Btc > 200wma > realized price 🚀
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PlanB 2 years ago
Bitcoin price is the best measure of adoption
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PlanB 2 years ago
We do not need banks We do not need on/off-ramps Just start asking #bitcoin for your products & services Just start using products that can be bought with BTC Just stop using banks and fiat (USD, EUR etc)