S2F 55k 100k and 288k models explained in this video:
PlanB
planb@planbtc.com
npub15wcv...qy0q
Creator of the stock-to-flow model
Saying S2F model is "wrong/invalid/broken", means saying BTC price pumps after 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings (red arrows) are coincidences, random, unrelated to halvings.
Possible, but I disagree. IMO 21M cap, supply schedule, 4y halving cycle are fundamental to BTC price. IMO the halving will probably be at S2F model value $60k (dark blue) and BTC will pump after the halving (red), just like 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings.
Metcalfe's Law says: value of a network = number of users squared (N^2)
S2F Model says: value of an asset = scarcity cubed (S2F^3)
So if S2F 2x then value 8x (2x2x2)
Oh, and April 2024 halving will 2x #Bitcoin S2F
Probably nothing🔥
#Bitcoin April 2024 halving will double S2F-ratio from ~55 to ~110, and make BTC scarcer than gold (S2F-ratio ~60).
1) will BTC value post halving > pre halving (as per S2F model)?
2) will BTC mcap > gold $10T (as per S2FX model)?
3) will S2F trading rule (see chart) still work?#Bitcoin
Jan 27, 2021: $29K
Feb 21, 2021: $58K (~2x in 25 days)
---
Jul 20, 2021: $29K
Sep 6, 2021: $52K (~2x in 47 days)
New PlanB video on YouTube 🔥
NEW chart: #Bitcoin market stages
🔵 stage 1: early bear
🟢 stage 2: late bear
🟡 stage 3: early bull <- we are here
🔴 stage 4: late bull
This is my favorite chart after S2F, based on 1 on-chain variable. Not prediction, but detection. If you like this stuff, I will update.
#Bitcoin March closing price $28,476
73% of all (on-chain) #Bitcoin is in profit (green)
Current bitcoin adoption is ~1%
Adoption from 1% to 10% will be as fast as from 0.1% to 1%, as per the s-curve 1/(1+exp(a)) .. less than 10 years!
And yes, there is a link between adoption% and price (Metcalfe's law). The vertical is coming.
Of course banks & governments hate bitcoin!
Just like the horse industry hated cars
Just like the music industry hated MP3
Just like the telecom industry hated VOIP
Momentum is real
Bitcoin RSI > 50 .. bull market confirmed🚀
Trust in (central) banks is broken. Fiat system is compromised and weaponized (cut countries off Swift, freeze accounts, kill industries). Fiat money lost money functionality.
Bitcoin is math (ECDSA+SHA256+P2P) thus doesn't need trust. Bitcoin also uses less energy than banking!
Bitcoin momentum is turning bullish, despite banking woes. Blue is next, then red.
Btc > 200wma > realized price 🚀Bitcoin price is the best measure of adoption
Bitcoin


We do not need banks
We do not need on/off-ramps
Just start asking #bitcoin for your products & services
Just start using products that can be bought with BTC
Just stop using banks and fiat (USD, EUR etc)
