HOPE IS A GOOD THING, MAYBE, THE BEST OF THINGS. AND NO GOOD THING EVER DIES! BITCOIN IS A GOOD THING.

We’ve basically gone numb to the fact that people die on the roads every day. The only reason we tolerate it is because, so far, there hasn’t been a real alternative. Once software fully takes over driving, we’ll look back and realize how crazy it was to let humans control cars even though technology exists today. When software is driving, the difference will be so obvious that we’ll wonder why we didn’t push for it sooner. Right now there’s still some resistance, but in ten years it’ll be crystal clear that this was the only sensible direction.

In about 15 years, no one will be able to say, “I’m late because of traffic” or “There was an accident, so I couldn’t get to the meeting on time.” Once software is fully driving the machines, it’ll handle all the routing. When we hand control over to the system, it’ll take us from point A to point B with almost no delays because human error is basically removed. With software making the decisions, the error rate on the roads drops to near zero, and people get to their destinations way faster. In that world, it would almost feel criminal not to let software do the driving.

The most underrated thing right now is how fast the quality of life in the United States is going to decline. If you have the option to physically live somewhere else, the smartest move is to leave. And honestly, physical assets are at risk. A major “great taking” is coming in the next few years. You need to shift from physical to digital assets - there’s no real alternative. The sophisticated people and the smart money have already left.

Bitcoin isn’t an IQ test. It’s an ego test.

Unpopular opinion: Getting married in your early 20s is going to become fashionable again. It’ll be great for society, and it’ll feel normal to marry young and have a bunch of kids.

When I finally understood Bitcoin, I realized I was actually learning what time really is.

My big thesis on capital rotation is this: for most of history, the capital sat in the East - China, India, Southeast Asia. Those regions had the natural resources, the climate, the rivers, the knowledge, everything. That’s why explorers and traders kept sailing east, because that’s where the wealth was. Over a couple of centuries, that capital shifted to the West, first to Europe and then by the 1900s mostly to the United States and its allies. The West got two things right: fairness and rule of law. Add innovation, technology, life sciences, strong institutions, and trust, and it became the obvious place for capital to settle. Now that trust is breaking down. Institutions don’t feel as reliable, rule of law feels shaky, and the basic sense of fairness people assumed is fading. But that doesn’t mean capital naturally flows back to the East. People in the east don’t believe their systems are fair either, and they’re not. Power is concentrated, rule of law is weak, and equality & fairness is mostly missing. So capital has nowhere physical to go. The West isn’t working, the East isn’t working. That’s why I think the rotation now is into the internet itself. Cyberspace is egalitarian. Code is law. It doesn’t discriminate, it doesn’t care about race or power structures, and it’s secured by energy. That’s why I think the great rotation of capital is moving into digital space, into Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's fundamentals have never been better. - SAB-121 rescinded - E.O. creating strategic BTC reserve - E.O. protecting the right to self-custody - Fed withdrawing supervisory guidance - OCC rescinding restrictive guidance - FDIC explicitly allowing banks to engage in BTC activities - Texas becomes first state to fund strategic BTC reserve - JPMorgan accepting BTC as collateral for loans - Hash rate crossed 1 Zh/s for the first time - Harvard and other endowments disclosed BTC exposure - Sovereign wealth funds disclosed BTC exposure - State pension funds disclosed BTC exposure - 11 nations now mine BTC with government resources - Public companies now hold more than 1 million BTC - Block enabled BTC payments to 4 million merchants Price dropped from $125k to $92k today. I am bullish is an understatement.

Money is moving: • from illiquid to liquid • from non-transparent to transparent • from physical to digital • from mass to speed of light • from high risk to low risk • from speculation to non-speculation • from real estate to Bitcoin

The character of an asset always reflects the character of its investors.

The way we measure value today, like with dollars, is flawed because of inflation and other factors. It’s hard to see the real change in goods over time. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and transparency, could be a better measure in the future. Over the long term, as adoption grows, the volatility could drop, giving a clearer way to see the true value of things like bananas over decades.

When you buy, accumulate, or HODL Bitcoin, what you’re really doing is building creditworthiness.

Endless money printing is the real cause of most economic problems. It’s not the billionaires, not capitalism, and not any group of people. Your pounds, dollars, euros, naira, and yen lose value every single day. And as long as we keep blaming the wrong things, the problem will never stop.

Even though Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset of the past decade, HODLing it is a test of endurance. 95% of the time, it’s just boredom or deep frustration. Only the people who’ve learned to master those emotions have actually been able to capture Bitcoin’s massive gains.

Bitcoin will win eventually because I believe in this. “There is nothing as disturbing to one’s well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich. Unless it is to see a non-friend get rich.”

In the next Indian general elections & state elections, everyone’s going to be watching the prediction markets — especially Polymarket. The bets will be massive, and every news channel will be talking about the odds there. All the traditional election polls, surveys, and exit polls will start to feel irrelevant once the results are out, because Polymarket will become the main source of truth — especially for something as high-stakes and closely watched as the Indian elections.

In the next 5 to 8 years, I can see Bitcoin reaching $1 million.

@less Jeff - I heard you indirectly spoke about this chart before. Do you think this is the most important macroeconomic signal ??