Ankh- Morpok's avatar
Ankh- Morpok
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Bitcoin, Terry Pratchett, 🇵🇸
Markets are reacting to Trumps tweets. I don’t think market signals are telling us anything. I think market signals are broken (like in 2008 before the GFC)
Another VERY RELEVANT quote from Terry Pratchett. "The truth is not a thing that is said. It is a thing that is fought for. When you see a story in the paper, you think it is the truth. But it is not. It is a version of the truth. The version that is printed. The version that is believed. The version that is sold. And the version that is convenient. For the people who are in charge. For the people who want to stay in charge. And when the truth is convenient, it ceases to be truth. It becomes propaganda. And propaganda is the child of evil." – The Truth
Another relevant Terry Pratchett quote about war. "People are always trying to kill each other. That’s why we invented the law. War is just the law in a different form — the law that says you have the right to kill, as long as you’re killing for the right reasons. And the right reasons are always the ones that make you feel better about yourself. The right reasons are the ones that make you feel like a good person. The right reasons are the ones that allow you to kill the other guy without feeling guilty. Because if you kill the other guy because he’s evil, then you’re not a murderer — you’re a hero. And if you’re a hero, you can’t be guilty. You’re just doing what you have to do." – Monstrous Regiment
New Iran Lego video. Notice the little Lego girl in bee with Trump (she’s crying) 😳
I keep looking at the market and wonder why it gone down more. Then I see it react to Trump’s Tweets and I realise the majority of the market doesn’t realise that the straits of Hormuz are going to be closed for a long time. They’re believing MSM and Trump. Oil prices are going to go much higher. They’re really not pricing in much higher oil prices for the next few months at least.
Another very relevant Terry Pratchett quote (at least I think so). "We’re not going to war. We’re going to war to stop the war. That’s the way it always goes. You go to war to stop the war, and then you find out that the war you went to stop is now the war you have to keep going. And you can’t stop it, because if you stop it, someone else will start it. And if you don’t start it, someone else will stop it. And if you stop it, someone else will start it. It’s a loop. A loop with no exit. And the only way out is to stop fighting — but no one is willing to do that, because they’re all fighting for the same thing: to be right. And being right is more important than being alive." – Monstrous Regiment
Another Terry Pratchett quote which is proving true "The people who go to war are not the people who make the war. And the people who make the war are the people who never go." – The Last Hero (2009)
This is a Terry Pratchett quote that probably applies to a lot of us, me included “They say the world is full of people who don’t care what happens to it. But they’re wrong. It’s full of people who do care, and are too scared to act." – The Last Hero (2009)
So…. The US went off the gold standard but they needed countries to carry on buying the US dollar. They had w2 very good strategies 1. Make the gulf sell oil only in us$ in return for military protection 2. Industrialise China in return for China selling all their products in US$. China escaped and is now selling their stuff for Yuen. Gulf countries carried on selling oil for US$. Now….. the strait of Hormuz is blocked and the world is having to negotiate with Iran to get oil and there is really nothing the US can do. Iran will probably ask countries to pay in Yuen cos they r part of BRICS and they need Yuen to trade with China. In a single stroke they’ve broken the Petro$. Now the US has DEFINITELY not protected the gulf states. In steps China…. The US is dependent on trillions of US$ reinvested in the US (AI, JP Morgan, etc) And the rest is history. So Bitcoin??? I’m thinking there’s billion if not trillions of gulf money in the US and Europe. Now they need to get their money out without being ‘sanctioned’ and their money frozen. Do you think even a small % of this is going into bitcoin, the only money which cannot be censored?
We are living in a post truth world. I’m not sure what that means but we r living in it.
I think the world is in a very dangerous place. The Iranians have shown the US to be a paper tiger. They are simply not positioned to fight an asymmetric war, and their allies are taking note. Let’s take South Korea as an example. US removed their THAD missiles and gave it to Israel. This is not what’s shocked Korea. What’s shocked Korea is even with the THAD, Iranian missiles are getting through. So they’re deciding if US protection is actually going to protect them. They’re now thinking maybe we need to talk to North Korea. They’re starving, and we’ve got money, we need protection, and they’ve got nuclear weapons. Surely there’s a trade somewhere there. The GCC nations are thinking the same. They gave our THAD and patriot batteries to Israel and, we’re getting bombed, and even with all our stolen protections, Israel is getting bombed. Maybe we need to reconsider (and in steps China). America’s bark is seen to be worse than its bite. So what does this mean for Bitcoin? Bitcoin has been doing something very strange in the last few days. When oil futures go up, it’s holding steady or going up. Are there a few people who are realising that bitcoin really is digital gold or that when the shit hits the fan bitcoin is the only asset you can transport across borders with 12 words in your head or hidden somewhere? For whatever reason bitcoin doesn’t seem to be behaving like ‘risk on’ assets. Either way it’s ridiculously dangerous. @FLASH @HODL @Jeff Booth
I’ve said this before. But the main reason I buy bitcoin is for my kids. We’re heading into a very uncertain period where we don’t know if our kids will have jobs. There’ll probably be some kind of universal basic income but I don’t want my kids to be on that. I want them to strive. I want them to have options. I want them to know what it’s like to be ambitious. Bitcoin will give them that advantage. In 20 years when they need it, bitcoin will give them that security to take risks, to actually try. Try anything. Cos in 20 years, when everyone is going to be anaesthetised with social media, being led by AI, with a few oligarchs in charge, and everyone else being neutered by UBI, that’s when I want them to have enough bitcoin to be willing to take risks. Be willing to live. That’s why I buy bitcoin.