Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund is up 439% on the year, levered to the gills on AI stocks, and is now scrambling to raise capital after the recent rout.
Sound familiar?
Every few years, an Effective Altruist makes a fortune, gets drunk on their own certainty about the future, levers up, and blows apart.
SBF believed he had a moral obligation to make as much money as possible so he could redistribute it to save the world. That conviction gave him permission to cut corners, commingle funds, and lie. He's in prison.
Aschenbrenner believes he has "situational awareness" that perhaps a few hundred people on earth possess.
That conviction gave him permission to run a skeleton crew of 4 investment professionals, use massive leverage with no prior trading experience, and concentrate into the most crowded trade on the planet.
The pattern isn't coincidence. It's the philosophy. EA teaches its followers that the expected value of the future is so enormous that almost any risk is justified in the present.
If you truly believe AGI will reshape civilization and you're one of the few who sees it clearly, why wouldn't you lever 10:1? The math says you should.
That's the trap. Certainty about the future plus moral permission to act on it is the most dangerous combination in markets. It turns smart people into walking blowup risk.
The market doesn't care about your thesis. It cares about your margin call.
