The $2 trillion private credit market is showing real cracks for the first time.
In Q2, investors requested $15.6 billion in redemptions from private credit funds. That blew past the standard 5% quarterly cap at 10 of the 16 largest BDCs. Average redemption requests hit 10.3% of shares. Blue Owl's OTIC saw requests on 38.1%. Most investors only got partially paid out. New inflows dropped 56%. Fitch expects the pressure to continue for quarters.
The root cause: ~20% of private credit loans went to software companies. AI disruption fears are hammering those valuations and investors want out. BDCs average 26% software exposure vs. 14% for the broader leveraged loan market and 5% for high yield. The most exposed vehicles are getting hit the hardest.
Because these are illiquid loans, not stocks you can sell on an exchange, funds can't easily meet redemptions. This is forcing a secondary market into existence. Tradable, a platform that tokenizes loan ownership, has seen transactions double. Jefferies is quoting Thoma Bravo's Anaplan loans at 91.5-96.5 cents on the dollar. Coupa loans are near par. Not a panic, but a structural shift.
Meanwhile, actual lending has collapsed. US direct lending volumes fell 55% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 to $33.6 billion, lowest since mid-2023. Lenders are sitting on dry powder and refusing to deploy it.
The irony: fundraising is booming. Private credit funds raised $16.25 billion in Q2, highest in two years. Capital is flowing in at the top while trying to escape at the bottom.
Regulators are circling. The FSB warns of deteriorating credit quality and opaque valuation practices. Chatham House says regulators need to get ahead of this before it becomes systemic. The DOL is pushing to open 401k accounts to alternatives like private credit, which could pour retail money into a market already under stress.
This is private credit's first real stress test. The asset class grew from nothing to $2 trillion without ever facing a real credit cycle. Now it is.
